Mariners Fans Musings: Answering some MLB Draft questions

We take a brief break from quickly diminishing backlog of questions from you, the fans of the Seattle Mariners, to knock out a few questions regarding the upcoming MLB Draft.

Before we tackle these questions, let’s make a few things clear: I don’t know as much about these players as the Mariners do. So it’s entirely possible I love a player the team has no interest in and vice-versa.

I also am relying heavily on scouting reports from others when answering these questions. I do have access to some video but without much of a college baseball season and a practically no high school baseball being played this year, there isn’t a lot of video scouting I can perform.

But with a growing interest in the draft this year for Mariners fans, now is a good time to try and answer some of your more pressing questions. A combination of the team’s high pick and the lack of actual live sports content won’t last forever, so let’s seize the moment and talk about the MLB Draft.

Our first question is from @alexledbetter15:

So in case you guys missed it, I ranked my Top 10 Draft Prospects with a heavy Mariners tilt last week. You can read my rationale and mini-scouting reports here but the short answer is that my Top 10 looked like this:

1. Emerson Hancock
2. Spencer Torkelson
3. Asa Lacy
4. Max Meyer
5. Austin Martin
6. Nick Gonzales
7. Zac Veen
8. Garrett Crochet
9. Garrett Mitchell
10. Mick Abel

Now when I compile a list like this, I do try to factor in both the prospects floor and ceiling into the conversation. The weight I place on each side of the coin depends on draft position, organizational strengths, the strength of the draft class, and other factors. So while my Top 10 would be different, it wouldn’t be all the dissimilar.

When ranking these names based solely on the highest floor, I’d probably land around here:

1. Spencer Torkelson
2. Asa Lacy
3. Austin Martin
4. Nick Gonzales
5. Emerson Hancock
6. Max Meyer
7. Garrett Mitchell
8. Zac Veen
9. Mick Abel
10. Garrett Crochet

To answer the specific example, I don’t believe Detmers has a higher floor than Meyer. Unless we are willing to assume Meyer will get hurt, his floor is as a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever, where Detmers floor is as a #4 starter.

When discussing floor, you have to give the edge to college bats, which is why we find 3 of the Top 4 names being moved around. I suspect all 10 players will be quality big leaguers, so when considering whom to select at six, the Mariners should be concerned more with upside than floor.