Ahead of DL Stint, Slumping Mike Zunino Shouldn’t Worry the Mariners Yet

These days Mike Zunino is looking up at the Mendoza Line. A few big moments stand out clear beyond a blur of strikeouts, yet they don’t mask what has been an unfortunately steep decline in production at the plate. While he tries to find himself again, Zunino’s presence both on the field and in the clubhouse anchor him to the Mariners’ roster, leaving fans to scrounge for a glimmer of hope that he can turn himself around at the major league level.

Mike Zunino is an easy guy to root for at least. In college, he excelled on both sides of the ball en route to his selection as the 3rd overall pick by the Mariners in the 2012 draft, which created some assurance that a hodgepodge of a catching crew would finally be solidified. That may have also accelerated his minor league career though, limiting him to fewer than 300 PA between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut.

That rush to the majors drew the ire of fans as Zunino struggled offensively and couldn’t seem to turn it around, but some keen adjustments, particularly to low and away pitches, during the 2016 season helped resurrect his status.

Though not necessarily by the same means, his success continued through 2017. And that just makes his current struggles all the more frustrating and puzzling, but like we did for Ben Gamel earlier this week, maybe we can uncover some optimism in Mike Zunino’s slump.

Given Mike’s self-awareness about needing to find his swing, maybe there is something we can pick up on here that has been holding him back.

Let’s check out a swing from 2017:

And one from 2018:

From a mechanical standpoint, his hands and stride look pretty much the same as last year, but the relationship between them appears different.

In 2017 (top), the hands start downward before the leg kick begins. You can pause the gif and scroll through each frame to see that once Zunino lifts his front foot off the ground, there is essentially no vertical movement in his hands. However, in 2018 (bottom), the hands and leg kick begin at about the same time. If you scroll through each frame, you can see that in contrast to last year, as Zunino’s foot comes up, his hands also drop down.

I can’t say whether this is intentional. I can’t say whether this is detrimental. All I can say is that this is different; Zunino’s top and bottom halves aren’t communicating the same way they were last year.

Intentional or not though, a mechanical change can be a contributing factor to changes in performance. And this year, it appears that despite remaining in the kitchen, Mike Zunino is not standing the heat.

With that lame joke behind us, I’ll tell you why it kind of makes sense.

Against all types of 94+ mph pitches this year, Zunino has just a .262 xwOBA. That is uninspiring compared to his .339 mark last year and .365 the year before, and it’s eerily similar to his pre-breakout mark of .270 in 2015. Against such pitches, his Whiff% according to Baseball Savant has also increased from 17.4% to 20.3% this year.

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If you bump the range to 95+ mph or even higher, his overall numbers look less impressive but the discrepancy between 2017 and 2018 is still evident. And similarly, against all types of fastballs of all speeds, Zunino’s .317 xwOBA is also lagging behind his 2016 and 2017 performances.

Small sample size aside, all this can be attributed in part to a newfound struggle to pull pitches at that velocity with authority.

Seeing 363 pitches above 94 mph in 2017, Zunino managed to pull 10 combined line drives and fly balls. That doesn’t make for an impressive raw percentage, but work with me here; I’m trying to wow with relativity. After seeing 207 such pitches this year, Zunino has managed to pull just 2 line drives and fly balls.

In total, his .585 wOBA when pulling these pitches is a far cry from what he has been able to do in the past. For a guy who sees fastballs, 60+% of the time and 94+ mph pitches 20+% of the time, this is not a promising recipe for success.

But now let’s consider the following comparison.

League average xwOBA against non-fastballs: .277

Mike Zunino’s xwOBA against non-fastballs: .307

And this is the second year in a row he’s been decidedly above average in this regard.

Evidently, separate from a renewed struggle against good velocity is a continued effectiveness against the soft stuff. That being the case, perhaps there is some truth to the idea that Zunino’s mechanics are hindering his timing after all.

Still, there is more than a manufactured sense of hope here. In addition to promising results against offspeed and breaking pitches, Zunino hasn’t lost his touch when he actually connects with the ball.

Source

Prior to 2016, he wasn’t liable to consistently tap into his raw power, but since his breakout, he has ranked among the league’s best in Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). A BBE is pretty self-explanatory, but if you are unfamiliar with Barrels, digest the following definition then maybe give the Barrel glossary page a further look.

"To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."

Swing-and-miss issues prevent Zunino from producing in the same volume as Justin Upton or similar players around the 15% Brls/BBE mark, but an ability to barrel up balls that endures through an 80 wRC+ slump over 200+ PA is a source of optimism that should not be lost in the thick of a sub-.200 batting average.

Turning our attention to the following detailed strike zone from Baseball Savant, let’s zoom in on Zunino’s expected production by region and year.

The only region within which Zunino’s expected production has nosedived is outside the zone.

A simple explanation would be that he is chasing too often and not taking the walks he should be. Certainly, his 34.7% O-Swing% and 5.0% BB% would both be career worsts if not for 2014, and his current 38.8% K% would represent a career-high. His success with a similar O-Swing% and K% in 2017 should be reassuring though. There is no doubt that Mike Zunino has his flaws, but his production has and likely will always depend on getting the most out of his strengths. While we might not see him hit around .250 like he did last year, we should keep in mind that he was plenty productive with a 115 wRC+ while hitting .207 in 2016.

Recent news of his trip to the DL with a left ankle bone bruise couldn’t be anything but a disappointment, but perhaps this time off will be exactly the breather that Mike Zunino needs because in general, the peripherals are still strong.

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The tools are definitely still there. It may just be a matter of rediscovering that groove. Whether that continued search can be resolved by adjusting his mechanics or just getting his approach straightened out or something else, we’ll have to wait and see.

All stats referenced prior to games on 07/05/18. 

Another interesting tidbit: According to Statcorner, Mike Zunino is earning his highest rate of favorable calls per game since 2014