Josh vs. Jack

Of course, I’m talking about the Wilson’s. I wrote a lot about this subject earlier in the season – here, and here, but I feel like it still needs more talking about. Jack Wilson is hurt again, and Josh Wilson is doing a decent job of filling in for him, so inevitably, people are back to talking about keeping Josh around next year as the starting shortstop, instead of Jack. That was a stupid idea then, and it’s a stupid idea now.

I took part in a little discussion about this last night over at Lookout Landing, and this is pretty much what it came down to – the salary for major league baseball players should roughly be $4 million per win, and replacement level players are worth 0 wins. Josh Wilson is a replacement level player, and Jack Wilson, if he stays healthy, should be anywhere from a 2 to 4 win player. So, Jack is not only going to be worth anywhere from 8 to 16 million dollars next season, but he’s going to be worth anywhere from 8 to 16 million dollars MORE than Josh.

Jack’s option for 2010 is $8.4 million, so he would only need to be worth about 2.1 wins to earn his money. I’m not saying that there aren’t going to be better routes to take than picking up his option, but at the very least, if we do, we’re not only getting our money’s worth, but we’re getting 2-4 wins out of the shortstop position, which is something that’s not easy to come by. It’s much easier to get value out of almost any other position.

Now if we were to go with Josh, sure we’d save $8 million, but we’d also lose 2-4 wins. Sacrificing wins for money isn’t something you generally want to do when you’re talking about a team that has a chance to contend. Now Jack Zduriencik has already shown his talent for finding cheap value, but that’s something that’s not easy to do when it comes to shortstop. And if he’s able to do it again this off season at other positions, spending the money on Jack Wilson – the money he’s probably going to earn, and then some – shouldn’t be much of a problem.

When it comes down to it, the most important thing is wins (unless you’re flat broke like the Rangers), and if the team wants to avoid overpaying but still get the wins, you go with Jack over Josh.

The other possibility that I haven’t mentioned in this post, is the possibility of the Mariners extending Jack Wilson for a year or two, rather than picking up his option. Generally, if we were able to agree on something like a 2 year/$10 million deal, that would be great.

But, I digress. My point is, if it comes down to it, picking up Jack Wilson’s option is a better route than letting him go and keeping Josh Wilson.

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