Why Mariners could wait to follow Yankees' lead with No. 1 prospect promotion

As soon as Luis Castillo got moved to the Chicago White Sox, "Kade Anderson" moved to the tip of every Seattle Mariners fan's tongue. That new era is coming, folks, but a presently awkward roster fit isn't the only reason it might not be as imminent as the New York Yankees' George Lombard Jr. era.

Indeed, Lombard donned the pinstripes for the first time on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium. His promotion didn't come a moment too soon as far as Yankees fans were concerned, and not just because he had arguably earned it a while ago. If ever there was a fanbase in need of good news, it was Yankees fans after the disappointment of the trade deadline and the carnage of a 13-7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday.

Mariners fans can relate to the trade deadline disappointment. And to the hunger for a top prospect, for that matter. Anderson has been making a mockery of Double-A hitters (82.1 IP, 1.20 ERA) for months. And in ranking him as MLB's No. 1 overall prospect, Keith Law of The Athletic opined that the lefty would be in "27 or 28 rotations" elsewhere.

The Mariners literally have incentives to hold off on Kade Anderson's MLB debut for a little while longer

Yet before we get into the real-world barriers between Anderson and his MLB debut, it's worth acknowledging that there's an elephant in the room in the form of MLB's prospect promotion incentives.

Remember when the Mariners added Julio Rodríguez to their Opening Day roster in 2022 and he went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year? That wasn't a win just for him. Per the PPI protocols laid out in what was still a fresh collective bargaining agreement, Julio's AL Rookie of the Year win earned the team an extra pick in the 2023 draft. They eventually used it on Jonny Farmelo, turning the whole thing into a sort of double win.

Given Anderson's status as an elite prospect, the Mariners can reason that there's a real chance of him contending for the 2027 AL Rookie of the Year if he still has rookie eligibility next season. (And if there ever is a new CBA, of course). It would mean running the same play the Arizona Diamondbacks did with Corbin Carroll, calling him up just late enough in 2022 to keep his rookie eligibility intact for 2023. He went on to win the NL Rookie of the Year as a result.

In Anderson's case, this would require him to finish this season with fewer than 50 innings pitched and 45 days on the active roster. The regular season ends on September 27, and 45 days before then is August 13. So, basically right where ESPN's Jeff Passan alluded to in his latest Seattle Spotts interview:

But just to be safe, the Mariners might wait even longer. If Anderson makes even eight starts in the majors, he could conceivably challenge the 50-inning threshold. As it is, he's still 36.2 innings short of matching his high from his days as LSU's ace starter.

The Mariners need a clean fit for Kade Anderson on their roster anyway

Cutting back now to the real world, there's currently the obvious reality that the Mariners lack an excuse to give Anderson the call.

Castillo may be gone, but the idea is to leave his spot unfilled and simply use a five-man rotation. The only way to work Anderson into the plans would be to put him or someone else in the bullpen. Understandably, the Mariners don't want Anderson pitching in relief. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times mused about Emerson Hancock potentially moving to the pen to make way for Anderson, but it might not be so easy to effectively demote a pitcher who's posted a 3.33 ERA through 21 starts.

Of course, what could throw all this out the window is if someone gets injured. In that event, doing anything other than calling up Anderson would be a disgrace. The Mariners simply can't be messing around with service time manipulation when there's a playoff spot still to be won, and they're already behind the 8-ball as it is.

Failing that, the smart money is on Anderson getting called to The Show when rosters expand on September 1. It's right in that sweet spot of not too late and not too early, and thus right on time.

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