Where does the Mariners' 2025 payroll stand after their non-tender decisions?

The non-tender deadline has officially passed, meaning teams had to offer contracts to all arbitration-eligible players or let them hit the free agent market. Seattle cleared up some room on their 40-man roster by non-tendering four players: Sam Haggerty, Josh Rojas, Austin Voth, and JT Chargois.

While none of these players were projected to have exorbitant arbitration salaries given their relatively underwhelming contributions on the field in 2024, these cut contracts will still save roughly $8 million. While this is hardly enough to pursue the likes of Juan Soto, it could still be enough to bolster weak parts of the roster heading into 2025.

On the other hand, it's possible that this money saved is simply a temporary respite from the financial burdens of running a baseball team. When asked about potentially increasing payroll for next season, Jerry Dipoto pointed out that the budget would increase to cover the rising costs of retaining their talented core of arbitration-eligible players, not acquiring impactful talent. George Kirby and Cal Raleigh will be reaching arbitration for the first time and are projected to make a combined $11 million while Logan Gilbert and Randy Arozarena will be headed into their second year of arbitration and are projected to cost the team $20 million in total.

As things currently stand, both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the team's payroll around $144 million. This means that if the front office is serious about potentially increasing total spending, the team budget will have nearly doubled since spending $87 million in 2021, and will match the $160 million spent in 2018 to retain Félix Hernández, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, and Robinson Canó. Needless to say, it has been a while since that kind of money has been thrown around in the PNW.

Even if the Mariners choose to pursue a contract or two in the realm of $15 million per year, the arbitration salaries for the young core will continue to increase along with their performance on the field. However, Mitch Haniger's free agency and the conclusion of Mitch Garver's contract in 2026 (barring a miracle mutual option agreement) should free up $27 million, giving the team more breathing room. It may even be enough of a relief to take a chance on one of the bigger names on this year's market.

Small moves like finding a bullpen piece with incremental upside and low marginal cost move the needle slightly, but a bigger move is yet to come. The team still needs help in the infield and could always use more power at the plate. But with plenty of competition from other teams, impact bats on the free agent market will undoubtedly come at a premium. There's still the possibility of pursuing a trade but that would require surrendering significant prospect equity, something Seattle may not be willing to do. So, the team will either have to take a leap of financial faith or continue to languish in regular-season mediocrity if they want to keep the payroll static.