This Mariners-Cubs trade should land Seattle new second baseman Nico Hoerner

The Mariners are in need of a new middle infielder. Unfortunately, given their spending habits and the current class of free agents it looks like they'll have to swing a big time trade if they want to make a real impact with next year's lineup.

Some have proposed complex three-team trades for Seattle to acquire some of the more notable names reportedly up for sale, but let's take a look at what a potential trade might look like just to acquire one name in particular from the Cubs.

First and foremost, we have to identify what the Cubs are looking for this offseason. It has been reported that one of their priorities is to find an upgrade at the catcher position. Miguel Amaya had a good sophomore campaign but Chicago will need more if they want to overcome the Brewers, who have dominated the NL Central for the past several years. Matt Thaiss was acquired from the Angels in exchange for cash, potentially serving as a Plan B, but it wouldn't be surprising if they were still on the lookout for someone else.

Secondly, they need pitchers. They have already agreed to a two-year, $29 million contract with Matt Boyd, but given his lack of innings over the past five seasons, it may be risky to place all their eggs in his basket to be among the rotation leaders. They could also use some help at the back of the bullpen with Héctor Neris and Adbert Alzolay both failing to meet expectations in the closer role. In short, any arms will be welcome in Chicago.

Now that we know what the Cubs are looking for at a high level, we should take a closer look at what the Mariners would be getting in Hoerner. He slashed .273/.335/.373 for an OPS+ of 101 in 2024. With whiff and strikeout rates in the top percentile of qualified hitters, he has elite bat-to-ball skills but struggled with swing decisions, chasing 31.8% of the time and walking just 6.9% of the time.

Like many second basemen, he struggles to hit the ball with authority, but compensates with a consistently high batting average and squaring up balls at a 31.7% clip. This allows him to get extra bases even without consistent home run power. Over the past three seasons, he has accumulated 84 doubles and 10 triples along with 94 stolen bases.

He also provides excellent defensive fielding capabilities, demonstrating great range and placing in the top decile of Outs Above Average in every full season that he has played. He wasn't favored as heavily by Defensive Runs Saved this year, but he did manage to net a Gold Glove award for his efforts in 2023.

He'll be under contract for two more years and will be owed $23.5 million in total before becoming a free agent in 2027. So, for a second baseman with a dazzling glove, great speed, and an above-average bat for his position, what can the Mariners expect to pay?

It seems like a hefty price, but there are a few reasons this works. Harry Ford is estimated to make his major-league debut in 2025, and even if he doesn't get called up he'll still only be 22 by the time the next Opening Day rolls around, giving him plenty of time crack the big leagues. He's the 49th-ranked prospect in all of baseball for a reason, receiving strong grades from scouts for his speed and arm. He's viewed as a well-rounded catcher.

He fits the Cubs' needs well while not having a clear path forward in Seattle. After Cal Raleigh's standout season that saw him snag a Gold Glove and MVP votes, it seems clear that he'll be around for a while, and even longer if he receives and signs an extension. If Raleigh decides to test the free agent waters, he'll still be under team control until 2028, making it hard for Harry Ford to be fully utilized while he's young. Thus, it would make sense for Ford to be worth more as a trade candidate than as a retained asset for the Mariners, given the current logjam at the catcher role.

Alternatively, Emerson Hancock being packaged with another arm like Michael Morales could also be palatable for Chicago if they decide to focus more heavily on acquiring pitching this offseason. It would be tricky to ask for Ford and another prospect given that Hoerner would only be around for two years (and would be on the pricier side of the Mariners' roster), making this acquisition already quite expensive. If the Cubs do feel that they have the leverage in these negotiations, expect another starter-quality prospect like Brandyn Garcia to be included as well.

There are other prospects that could be moved and the latest asset to be reportedly up for sale would be enticing but redundant in this specific scenario. It has been reported that the Mariners and Cubs are already discussing such a transaction and no other teams have been named as competitors, so this could be one of the (hopefully) many moves that make up a great offseason for Seattle.