The X-factor who could make or break the Mariners bullpen

On May 3rd, Matt Brash entered to pitch against the Texas Rangers after 581 days away from the big league mound. It was an emotional return for the 26-year-old pitcher, as well as for Seattle Mariners fans who had been waiting for him to come back.

While it's good to have him back, one has to wonder whether the negative effects of his injury and long layoff are fleeting or here to stay.

The concerns started after he began his rehab assignment in Triple-A Tacoma. Across six appearances, he posted a 8.44 ERA with a 2.06 WHIP and just 8.4 K/9. He had flashes of his old self, but it was clear that he had rust to shake off. And despite carrying a perfect 0.00 ERA after two appearances for Seattle, the more detailed numbers show similar problems.

Matt Brash's velocity and strikeout rate have decreased significantly following his return from the IL

In 2023, Brash's average fastball velocity was 98.1 mph. So far in 2025, it has been just 95.7 mph. While likely not entirely responsible, this dip is likely a cause for his strikeout rate hitting all-time lows. His whiff rate in the big leagues is just 16.7 percent and he has struck out just one of the eight batters he's faced.

It's common for pitchers to need significant ramp-up time after Tommy John surgery to return to their former selves, which some never do. Some, like Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers, make adjustments to their arsenal to depend less on their velocity if they don't feel like they can get it back.

Brash has done this to some extent as one of the newest members of the kick change club, but he is also confident that he'll be able to work back to where he was at his best. In a recent conversation with Seattle Sports' Wyman and Bob, he acknowledged his relatively diminished form but expressed unwavering confidence in himself.

"It feels like I’m kind of still just coming out of like a spring training, let’s say, and this was like the beginning of my season. So I think as I get more appearances and get back on the mound more, I’ll start to become my normal self...Obviously my velo is down a little bit than what it normally is, but I know that will come around. My body feels good, my arm feels good, which is the main thing."

Matt Brash

While he gets warm, it's crucial that the team does what it can to improve in other areas. We've yet to see whether their recent proactivity will be sustained all the way to the trade deadline, but this is the most aggressive that the organization has been in years.

It has made several industry experts excited about what's in store for the remainder of the season, but with more than 100 games left to play, there's still plenty that could change.