The Orioles made the Mariners' steal on Josh Naylor look even better

The Baltimore Orioles just did the classic Winter Meetings mic-drop. Show up, throw a bag at a big name, and let everyone else stare at their phones. Pete Alonso to Baltimore on a five-year, $155 million deal is a real cannonball move. 

But if you’re a Mariners fan, you read that number and immediately start doing the kind of math that shouldn’t be necessary in December.

Seattle has completed their “first-base shopping.” They came back with Josh Naylor on the same five-year deal for $92.5 million, creating a $62.5 million gap that’s large enough to buy an entire bullpen and a backup catcher if they felt the need — or, more realistically, to keep the rest of the winter from turning into a “we’re done here” press conference. 

Orioles’ Pete Alonso deal makes the Mariners’ Josh Naylor contract look even smarter

To be fair: Alonso has a superior resume. He was a more well-known hitter, a larger franchise player and the pitcher's game plans are built around him. Home run hitters generally get more recognition and he’s projected to have a ton of raw power again in 2026.

But what makes Naylor's contract look so good is that the total difference between the players is not as large of a gap as the difference in the contract values.

Steamer’s 2026 projections have Alonso at 2.7 WAR and Naylor at 2.4 WAR. That’s not “different universes.” That’s one weird BABIP month, or one extra two-week hot streak. 

And anyone who watched Naylor in Seattle saw why. Alonso’s value is famously concentrated: he hits missiles, and the rest is… fine. Naylor, meanwhile, is the kind of player who keeps leaving little fingerprints all over wins. He gets on base, he’s annoyingly athletic for a first baseman (20/30 in 2025), he doesn’t strike out a ton, and he’s not a statue in the field. 

The "Marquee Slugger Tax" is working here. Teams pay a premium for the players who sell jerseys and make highlight reels. Seattle did not purchase the billboard; they purchased the baseball player (in his prime) and are still leaving space to continue building around him.

So yes, give us Naylor at $92.5 million over Alonso at $155 million every time. Not because Alonso isn’t great. Because Seattle got a more complete player, without having to pay for the fireworks show.

And for a franchise that’s spent years trying to solve first base like it’s a cursed escape room? That’s not just a good deal. That’s a small miracle.