The Mariners will need to reckon with their pitching problem after 2026 is over

Say what you will about his opposition to firing Jerry Dipoto and Dan Wilson, but former New York Mets general manager Steve Phillips is right about one thing: The Seattle Mariners have a pitching problem.

It's admittedly not the problem in a 2026 season that feels increasingly cooked, with three straight losses to the Athletics dropping Seattle to 66-77 with 19 games left to play. The Mariners are dead-last in baseball in scoring, which is historically not a good place to be if you want to contend.

And yet, pitching is supposed to be the backbone of the contention model that Dipoto has designed for the Mariners. This is where there's no denying the existence of a certain trend, nor how alarming it is. These are the club's annual ERA ranks since 2022:

• 2022: 8th
• 2023: 3rd
• 2024: T-1st
• 2025: 13th
• 2026: 19th

Two years ago, the Mariners had arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. Now they're barely a top-20 staff. As Phillips said on "Wyman and Bob" of Seattle Sports on Friday: “They’ve not hit, but they’ve also not pitched. The pitching has regressed from what we all thought and what they thought."

Obviously, injuries have been a problem. Luis Castillo was the only member of the starting rotation that didn't get hurt in 2025. Now it's the bullpen's turn in 2026, and injuries to key relievers loom especially large amid a second half in which the pen has a league-worst 6.28 ERA.

Defense has been an issue as well, particularly this year. The Mariners rank 25th in Defensive Runs Saved and 30th in Outs Above Average. For a team that has based its identity on keeping runs off the board, this is a crucial design flaw.

The Mariners' struggles on the mound aren't so easily explained

However, here's the weird part: On the whole, Seattle's pitching should still be excellent.

At least, that's the takeaway one gets when looking at pitch modeling metrics, particularly the Stuff+ variety created by Eno Sarris and Max Bay. This year, the Mariners rank second in Stuff+, first in Location+ and first in Pitching+. In layman's terms: Mariners pitchers combine nasty stuff with good location and good sequencing to form a truly elite process.

So, why is this not translating into results? In particular, how do pitchers as talented as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Andrés Muñoz have a combined ERA that's barely under 4.00?

Something about this year has made it feel like the book on Seattle pitchers is out and well-understood by every team they come across. The whole "Dominate the Zone" mantra is perhaps dated at this point, but the general idea remains true. And if Mariners pitchers intend to maximize their stuff by going right at hitters, the best fight hitters can put up involves swinging away.

On that note, here's the rate at which hitters have swung against Mariners hitters since 2022, as well as how they have slugged when they have swung:

The Mariners have ranked first or second in Swing% against them every year since 2022, so the year-to-year variations in the actual numbers don't really mean a whole lot.

What is significant is that slugging percentage trend. In 2022, the Mariners had the 10th-lowest SLG on swings. This year, they have the eighth-highest. The 28-point climb does not mirror a broader MLB trend, as the league's SLG on swings is only up seven percentage points relative to 2022.

What the Mariners might need more than anything is a personnel shakeup

As Phillips said in his interview, "there’s got to be some evaluation" of both the pitching and hitting processes and how they failed in 2026. That gets a hard agree from us. Injuries were a factor on both sides of the ball this year, but it also feels like the best-laid plans for both were quickly exposed and never really altered in any meaningful way.

Could this reevaluation process result in lost jobs? Not just Dipoto and Wilson, but hitting gurus Edgar Martinez and Kevin Seitzer and pitching gurus Trent Blank and Pete Woodworth? Well, put it this way: It's hard to imagine all of them coming back in 2027.

No matter what happens there, there's bound to be turnover on the offensive side with Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford headed for free agency. Neither figure to be back, though the Mariners have every reason to want to keep Arozarena out in left field.

At least on paper, the pitching is a different story. Every single one of the aforementioned pitchers is controlled in some way through at least the 2027 season. Yet if ever there was a good time to break up the band, it's now.

Unless the Mariners are going to do the six-man rotation thing again, it makes sense to clear a role for Kade Anderson so that he can have a proper runway as a rookie next year. Maybe that means moving someone (i.e., Miller) to the bullpen. More likely, it means cashing in a starter on the trade market, preferably for the impact bat the Mariners will need even if they somehow keep Arozarena.

Either way, it's doubtful anyone would complain about a change to the status quo. As much as the Mariners are supposed to be a pitching powerhouse, that simply isn't true anymore.

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