The Mariners have a potentially fatal disadvantage vs. Astros in AL West race

For what seems like ages now, the Seattle Mariners have been within striking distance of the Houston Astros for the top spot in the AL West. Unfortunately, while they managed to close the gap last week, they have yet to actually surpass Houston in the standings.

Since then, they've fallen back to being 1.5 games behind and are now on a three-game skid after losing the series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. To make matters worse, the schedule for the rest of the year means they might end up having to settle for second once more.

Remaining strength of schedule does not favor the Mariners in the AL West

To help calculate each team's playoff odds, FanGraphs uses an self-explanatory metric called Strength of Schedule. According to them, Seattle (.498) has an ever-so-slightly more difficult slate of opponents for the duration of the year compared to the Astros (.496).

The final weeks of the regular season will see the Mariners play six more series against teams with winning records, compared to only four for the Astros. The slight difference in schedule and current positioning in the division gives Houston an edge to maintain the top spot for the fifth year in a row, but the Mariners are hardly out of the picture.

Seattle could reasonably close the gap with a few solid wins and/or a few unexpected losses for Houston, and there are a few key characteristics that could swing the math into the Mariners' favor.

First, the Astros are still dealing with injuries to key players. Josh Hader will likely miss the remainder of the regular season and Yordan Alvarez is just now getting started with a rehab assignment, still far from returning to the peak of his powers.

Second, while the recent win column may not reflect this, there are some great things happening internally for Seattle. Julio Rodríguez is hitting his annual August stride by posting a .994 OPS in the month, Josh Naylor continues to be a bedrock at first base with an overall Mariner OPS of .771, and members of the bullpen are stepping up in big ways.

Third, the Mariners won't be facing the Los Angeles Dodgers until the final days of the regular season. Given how many injury issues the defending World Series champs have endured this season, they may choose to rest their starters and trot out their B-team. It'll hardly be as egregious as some NFL Week 18 rosters, but Los Angeles would be risking a lot for a little otherwise.

There's still a chance that the Mariners take the division back. But as a team, they'll have to start playing much better than they have been recently. With the team's last convincing win now weeks in the rearview mirror, Seattle risks becoming its own biggest obstacle on the way to October.