The best contract comp for a Logan Gilbert extension should give Mariners pause

Baseball's extension season typically takes place during the spring, but this offseason could be different. Because of the impending lockout, there might not be a spring. So if the Seattle Mariners are going to extend Logan Gilbert, it should probably be sooner rather than later.

Gilbert looked like he was all but certain to be the club's next extendee after Cal Raleigh back in 2025, when the righty was basically lobbying for a deal out in the open. There hasn't been much extension buzz since then, and the two seasons that have passed have put Gilbert on the doorstep of free agency. He's due to hit the market after 2027.

So, let's assess. Gilbert is A) an All-Star pitcher who is B) coming off his age-29 season and C) a year away from free agency. Does that sound familiar?

It should, because this was the book on Luis Castillo when he signed his five-year, $108 million contract with the Mariners in September of 2022.

The Mariners' experience with Luis Castillo should make them wary of extending Logan Gilbert

The side-by-side of Gilbert now and Castillo in 2022 makes for a compelling comparison. The two righties have basically the exact same ERA, with Castillo at 3.59 and Gilbert at 3.60. Other stats like ERA+ and WAR push the argument in favor of Castillo, arguably making up for Gilbert's workload advantage in terms of starts and innings.

Either way, the comparison suggests that something similar to Castillo's deal would be a fair price for the Mariners to pay for Gilbert. The opinion holds even after adjusting for inflation, which brings the value to more like $125 million over five years. Since Gilbert could conceivably land $200 million as a free agent next winter, paying $125 million for him now doesn't sound so bad.

But there is, of course, how the Castillo contract actually worked out for Seattle.

The Mariners got 3.2 rWAR from him during a 2023 season they would have had him for even without his extension. And then, 3.6 rWAR over a two-and-a-half year run of diminished returns before they gave up and (somehow) convinced the Chicago White Sox to take the remainder of Castillo's deal off their hands. He then got even worse before he injured his shoulder, all of which further reinforces his contract as an albatross.

A similar trajectory for Gilbert represents the worst-case scenario, yet it's not necessarily the most unlikely one. Already, a brilliant 2024 season in which he led the AL in innings and WHIP looks like an outlier. Red flags include a forearm scare in 2025 and increases in his walk and home run rates since 2024. He still misses bats, yet only four pitchers allowed more barrels in 2026.

All this creates a question of how palatable the risk is, and the circumstances of the Mariners' rotation only add to it. Gilbert is part of a rotation with six solid starters, and the other five are controlled beyond 2027. Kade Anderson is one of them, and both he and fellow prospect Ryan Sloan have top-of-the-rotation upside. Given all this, keeping Gilbert as a center of gravity for the long-term comes off as more of a luxury than a necessity.

The Mariners could trade Gilbert if they can't extend him, but it would have to make sense. His one remaining year of club control and $15.4 million projected salary put limits on his value. It's a similar situation to when the Milwaukee Brewers traded NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes in 2024, and even that trade had an unspectacular return of Joey Ortiz and DL Hall.

As the Mariners otherwise aren't hurting for financial flexibility and trade capital, their best play with Gilbert might be to just let it ride for the 2027 season. It's the boring answer, but it's in the sweet spot between two suboptimal alternatives.

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