Small sample size won't make Mariners fans feel better about new AL West foe

As if the Texas Rangers adding a new ace wasn't bad enough news for the Seattle Mariners, well, it gets worse: MacKenzie Gore has somewhat of a history as a Mariner killer.

The "somewhat" is necessary because Gore's track record against Seattle as a former member of the Washington Nationals consists of just two starts. That's what they call a "small sample size," and those can prove to be misleading in the long run. As Gore faces them more and more, maybe the Mariners will gain the upper hand.

Even so, the numbers from those two starts really do grab one's attention: 13.0 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER, 16 K. That's a 0.69 ERA and a strikeout rate of 11.1 per nine innings, which is maximum buzz saw territory for any ace.

There's more to MacKenzie Gore's Mariners dominance than the small sample size

Gore is a good pitcher, and his two starts against the Mariners happened in May of 2024 and May of 2025. That alone tells you a lot, as nobody would accuse the Mariners of being a good offensive team at either of those points. Their OPS was south of .700 in both cases.

What Gore did in those starts, however, was miss a lot of bats with 35 total swings-and-misses out of 193 total pitches. More specifically, he missed bats within the strike zone. Out of those 35 whiffs, 25 were within the zone.

And herein lies the real threat of Gore making regular starts against the Mariners as an AL West foe.

Overpowering hitters in the strike zone is kind of the 2025 All-Star's whole thing, to the point where he tied for the ninth-lowest rate of in-zone contact among qualified starters in 2025. And for its part, the Mariners offense tied for the lowest rate of in-zone contact — the other team was the Los Angeles Angels, who led MLB in strikeouts.

There is an upside to how Seattle hitters attack the strike zone. Maybe they swing and miss a lot, but they also slugged .608 when they put the ball in play off pitches in the zone last year. It was the sixth-highest mark in the league.

Gore is nonetheless someone who can exploit this approach. And what bodes well for Texas (and in turn, ill for Seattle) is that Gore is one of the only pitchers in the AL West who can overpower the Mariners in this fashion. It's him and Houston's Hunter Brown, who carved the Mariners up for a 2.81 ERA in three starts against them last year.

Granted, all of this amounts to the esoteric way of saying, "Hey, it sucks for the Mariners that MacKenzie Gore is a Ranger now." But it's still true, and the threat will feel real even if Seattle does something to respond before Opening Day.