Ranking threat levels for Mariners' AL wild card pursuers, from smallest to biggest

The Seattle Mariners came this close to letting their spot in the American League playoff race slip out of their hands last weekend. Thankfully, an Etsy witch cast a spell that has yielded three straight wins, not to mention much better vibes.

Danger still lurks behind the Mariners in the AL wild card standings, however. They have four teams within 4.5 games of their place in the third wild card spot, and none of them seems interested in letting the Mariners run away with the last ticket into the AL playoff field.

But just how threatening are these four teams? Let's break it down.

Threat assessments for Mariners' wild card competitors

4. Tampa Bay Rays (71-72)

Deficit: 4.5 GB
Last 10 G: 7-3
Remaining SoS: .502
Tiebreaker: Mariners hold

The Mariners just got swept by the Rays in Tampa last week, allowing them to come back from the dead as a contender. At least temporarily, that is, as the Rays followed a seven-game winning streak with losses in three in a row.

The Rays will play 12 out of their 19 remaining games on the road, where they are 33-36. The struggle is largely related to how much their offense sputters away from Steinbrenner Field, posting just an 87 wRC+ that is tied for 26th in the league.

The Rays have two series left against the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays, plus another against the Boston Red Sox. Both pose a threat to worsen the Rays' 16-23 record within the AL East. As it is, that record is already costing them their tiebreaker with the Mariners, who are 27-18 within the AL West.

3. Texas Rangers (75-70)

Deficit: 1.5 GB
Last 10 G: 7-3
Remaining SoS: .504
Tiebreaker: Mariners hold

The Rangers seemed finished as they lost 16 out of 23 games between July 28 and August 21, but so much for that. They have since win 12 out of 16, including three out of their last four against the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers.

Still, you have to wonder how long the Rangers can keep shaking off the huge bite the injury bug has taken off their roster. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi and Marcus Semien are done for the year, and it's not a given that Corey Seager will make it back from an appendectomy before the end of the season.

As the Rangers have to play the New York Mets and Astros on the road (where they are an abysmal 30-42) after they're done with Milwaukee, the teeth of their remaining schedule look sharp indeed. And with the Mariners having beaten them 10-3 in the season series, they can't get in merely by tying Seattle in the standings.

2. Kansas City Royals (73-71)

Deficit: 3.0 GB
Last 10 G: 4-6
Remaining SoS: .507
Tiebreaker: TBD

The Royals went 15-9 in July and 16-12 in August, and they're due to get some major reinforcements. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo should rejoin their rotation soon, and Jonathan India is slated to return to the lineup.

The Royals' remaining schedule is on the hard side, specifically in that 11 of their 18 remaining games are on the road. They are 33-36 away from Kauffman Stadium, in part because their pitchers are more homer-prone on the road (1.10 HR/9) than at home (0.95 HR/9).

However, the Royals will get to play host to the Mariners between Tuesday and Thursday next week. Those three games will decide the season series, and the Mariners' recent road woes don't exactly bode well for their chances.

1. Cleveland Guardians (73-70)

Deficit: 2.5 GB
Last 10 G: 6-4
Remaining SoS: .488
Tiebreaker: Mariners hold

The Guardians never really went away earlier in the year, and now they've been playing good baseball for two months at this point. Since July 7, their 33 wins are the third-most in the league.

Their bullpen hasn't missed a beat despite Emmanuel Clase's absence, posting the second-best ERA during this span. That has helped turn a whole bunch of close games into wins, as the Guardians are 11 games over .500 since July 7 despite only outscoring teams by an average of 0.3 runs.

It's a hard act to keep going in a vacuum, but the Guardians are also in for a very soft landing that features 12 out of 18 games at home (where they're 36-33) and only one series against a non-AL Central team. Despite the Mariners' tiebreaker edge, they're not to be taken lightly.