Predicting Mariners' Opening Day starting lineup after Logan Gilbert decision

Exactly one week out from their 2026 opener against the Cleveland Guardians, the Seattle Mariners announced on Thursday that Logan Gilbert will be their Opening Day starter. Now all they need is a starting nine.

The Gilbert decision wasn't quite obvious, but it was expected. Even if Bryan Woo took his spot as the team's best pitcher last season, Gilbert has been around longer and had the honor of starting the opener for the first time last year. He's earned a certain kind of respect.

The Guardians have chosen Tanner Bibee, a right-hander, to be their Opening Day starter. That means Dan Wilson will immediately be able to test out a go-to lineup, filled primarily with lefty batters while platoon bats like Rob Refsnyder and Victor Robles ride the bench.

The bigger question is whether J.P. Crawford will be available, or if he'll need to open the season on the injured list due to his sore right shoulder. To this end, even the "good" news Crawford got on Wednesday came with a caveat from Wilson that the veteran will be "down for a couple of days" following a cortisone injection, as per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.

Here's how the Mariners could line up on March 26 against the Guardians

So without further ado, here's our best guess at Seattle's 2026 Opening Day lineup:

1. 3B Brendan Donovan (L)
2. C Cal Raleigh (S)
3. CF Julio Rodríguez (R)
4. 1B Josh Naylor (L)
5. LF Randy Arozarena (R)
6. DH Dominic Canzone (L)
7. RF Luke Raley (L)
8. 2B Cole Young (L)
9. SS Colt Emerson (L)

Donovan batting leadoff has been the plan since the M's got him in February. And while Raleigh and Julio should arguably be arranged the other way around, this is how Wilson was batting them at the end of 2025. After them, following the lefty-hitting Naylor with the righty-hitting Arozarena makes sense.

The projection at RosterResource actually has Raley over Canzone, but the thinking here is that the latter's 2025 season has earned him the edge. When you have a hitter with a 142 OPS+ lying around, you put him in a spot where he can get more at-bats.

Given how he's looked recently this spring, it might not be long before Young makes his way up the Mariners' starting nine. For now, though, he's still in "prove it" territory after a rocky introduction to the majors last year.

Lastly, that does indeed say "Colt Emerson" at shortstop and batting ninth.

It's just hard to imagine Crawford being 100 percent by Opening Day, and it's way too early to risk it if he's not. While the downside of filling his spot with Emerson is that it would likely be just a cameo until Crawford is healthy, that leads to another question:

Is a Crawford IL stint the best excuse the M's are going to get to see what the kid can do?

It might be, in which case the Mariners might as well take it. Even if it hasn't all been smooth sailing, Wilson still touted the youngster's spring as "incredible," according to Manny Randhawa of MLB.com. The 20-year-old's defense has been terrific throughout, and his bat has come alive since a slow start. In four games between March 11 and 17, he went 6-for-13 with a pair of homers.

Regardless, keep in mind that next Thursday is only the first game out of 162. And regardless of how their lineup gets filled out, at least we're not sitting here debating Rowdy Tellez vs. Donovan Solano like we were last year.