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Would Jerry Dipoto re-do the Mariners-Diamondbacks Ketel Marte trade?
It what has drastically changed a few franchises, we take a look back to see if Jerry Dipoto and crew would re-do the Ketel Marte trade with the Diamondbacks
With JP Crawford coming back, you get excited knowing that the team is getting a bit stronger with him back in the fold. He missed a fair amount of time with his injury, and a healthy and on-point JP Crawford makes this team a lot better than having to rely more heavily on the backups, especially with how guys like Luis Urias are hitting.
There's another question about whether or not the Mariners should keep Dylan Moore at SS and move JP Crawford over to second, but that's a topic for another day.
However, there is something else that came to mind when JP Crawford came back. We have to go back a ways, and Crawford isn't even the only current Mariners' player that is involved in this. Back in 2017, the Mariners traded Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker to the Diamondbacks for Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura. A couple of years later, the Mariners would trade Jean Segura to the Phillies for JP Crawford.
The question that comes up is this. If Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander could re-do this trade sequence, would they do it? Are they happy with where they have ended up? Or would they look back at that original trade and say "you know what? I think we're good".
Let's dive in to look at everything that has happened since that original trade in 2017, and if the case makes itself as to whether or not the Mariners would re-do that trade with the Diamondbacks.
The case against the Ketel Marte trade: Keeping Ketel
When Ketel Marte is on, the dude is incredible. Good enough to be the best player on your team levels of good. Don't forget his 2019 season, when he finished 4th in MVP voting. He hit an astounding .329/.389/.592 with 32 HR, 39 2B, and ten steals, all while playing above-average defense that totalled in a 6.9 WAR.
He was 25, and the sky was the limit. With a 3.9 WAR the season before that, it seemed like the Diamondbacks had won the trade. COVID slowed things down, Although his 1.5 WAR that year translates to a 4.1 WAR mark, another great season.
He was down a bit, but has turned it back on in 2023 and so far in 2024. He was a 4.9 WAR player last season, and is a 2.7 WAR through just 48 games, which would be a 8.1 (!) mark if he plays 144 games. You don't ever want to give up a player like that. He's signed through his age-34 season for a fantastic deal (5YR/$76M), that pays out evenly at $15.2 per season.
To have that at second base? And in a poor man Mookie Betts mold of being able to play some short and outfield as well? That's insanely valuable. It's not just Marte, as the Diamondbacks got some value out of Taijuan Walker as well, although he was down for a bit before resurfacing the last couple of years as a reliable mid range starter.
Throw in Jean Segura (who we will get to on the next page) and the Mariners have given up about 41.5 WAR from trading away Marte + Walker + Segura. Marte is the key here, and having a near .300 hitter with power and a little bit of speed, who plays versatile and good defense, and finds the gaps as well... well, it's hard to pass that up even if you get a good return. Especially when you are getting him through his prime and into his early-30s.
The case for the Ketel Marte trade: Doing it Again
The Mariners got nearly as good a output from Haniger as the Diamondbacks did from Marte. Haniger would post a 3.1 WAR and a 6.5 WAR in his first two seasons for the Mariners, giving them a big bat that they needed to provide thump to their lineup, while hitting in the .280s both seasons as well. Power and Average? Yes, please.
Then came the shortened season, injuries, and a slowdown from Mitch. He still played well in 2021, with another 3+ WAR season, but he hasn't been able to play well and be healthy at the same time since. His 2022 was fine, but was only 57 games worth of baseball.
Let's not forget about Jean Segura. Well, I'm sure Dee Strange-Gordon wants to after their fight in the locker room. Segura was actually really good for the Mariners, hitting .302/.345/.421 in his two seasons there, with a 3.7 WAR mark in each season.
The Mariners used that success to trade the soon to be 29-year old to the Phillies for former top prospect, JP Crawford. Segura would play well the next four years, totalling 8.4 WAR before falling off his final season with a -1.9 mark for the Marlins. Meanwhile, JP Crawford has totalled 15.1 WAR so far for the Mariners, is their charismatic leader, and is signed on a team friendly deal (5YR/$51M) through 2026.
Haniger gave you some really strong years, although he is nearly unplayable now. However, they did re-acquire him as a set of moves that saved the team money over the next few years that will HOPEFULLY lead to the young core being extended. Crawford has definitely been better than Segura, and still has a lot of productive baseball in him. A corner outfielder who brought your team to the playoffs and a leader at SS? Those are two big gets. The Mariners, through all these moves related to the original trade, have seen 37.8 WAR acquired.
Final Verdict: Would Jerry Dipoto re-do the Ketel Marte trade?
After 7+ seasons, it's still hard to figure out who won this trade. The Mariners got some great value from Haniger in his good seasons, and his drive and intensity was a big factor (I believe) in getting the Mariners to the playoffs to break the streak. Then, as I mentioned earlier, they traded for him again, while moving Ray. They used that trade to also get Polanco, who would have been a massive acquisition if he played up to his previous stats.
Then, you have JP. his 2023 season was amazing, and he carried the Mariners through some rough stretches last season. He sure seems like the leader of this team, an easy guy to root for, and a fun guy to watch. Those are all important things outside of just the stats based arguments.
But... Ketel Marte has been really good. He and JP Crawford are about ten months apart (Marte is older), so age doesn't play a huge part in future thoughts. Marte is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, rocking a 21-game hit streak and a 93.8 exit velo on his swings, good for the 10th highest rate in all of baseball.
Sure, the Butterfly effect would have likely changed a lot of other things. Would they have had the same record in the past and been able to get Kirby and Gilbert in the draft? Would they have traded for Castillo? Who knows.
If, and it has to be said for the sake of this argument, if all other things were held constant, I don't think that the Mariners would re-do this trade. I really like Crawford, I do. He's so much fun to watch, and he's a dang good player. However, imagine Ketel Marte batting in front of Julio, and not having to watch Haniger plod around in right field.
It's close, and it could change. Shoot, it likely will since every time I disparage JP he seems to go out and get better or do something impressive. If I had to make the call, I think I wouldn't re-do the trade, and would've kept Ketel Marte for the Mariners.