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Will the Offseason Moves Help the Mariners Win Against the Rangers?
The Mariners play 13 games a season against each AL West team. This series examines how the offseason shifts affect the contests between the Mariners and their rivals in the AL West, in this case, the Rangers.
Now that 2024 Spring Training is almost upon us, I wanted to see how the offseason for both the Mariners and Rangers had changed their rosters and predict how the teams would do in their AL West games. In 2023, Seattle played 13 games against Texas. Texas won nine and we won four.
I used the 2023 and projected 2024 ERAs and BAs from Baseball-Reference for the comparison.
Mariners vs Rangers: Pitching
Both teams' starting pitching has remained fairly unchanged. The Mariners traded Marco Gonzales and Robbie Ray. Because of these veterans' injuries, the starting rotation that pitched most of the season will be the same. The Rangers have two significant players (De Grom and Scherzer) who will not return until mid-season. Their starting rotation has changed slightly with the addition of Tyler Mahle, the departure of Martin Perez, and the uncertain future of free agent Jordan Montgomery. Both teams have some shifts in the bullpen.
Starting Rotation
The Mariners and Rangers have listed these pitchers in their roster depth charts for the starting rotation.
SEA | Throwing Arm | '23 ERA | '24 proj. ERA | TEX | Throwing Arm | '23 ERA | '24 proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Castillo | RHP | 3.34 | 3.64 | Eovaldi | RHP | 3.63 | 3.97 |
Kirby | RHP | 3.35 | 3.59 | Heaney | LHP | 4.15 | 4.37 |
Gilbert | RHP | 3.73 | 3.78 | Dunning | RHP | 3.70 | 4.15 |
Miller | RHP | 4.32 | 4.32 | Gray | RHP | 4.12 | 4.29 |
Woo | RHP | 4.21 | 4.15 | Perez / Mahle | LHP / RHP | 4.45 | 4.13 |
Average | 3.91 | 3.95 | 4.01 | 4.18 |
BaseballReference.com believes that the Mariners' pitchers will have ERAs in the same range while anticipating that this Texas rotation may decline slightly. Losing Ray and Gonzales is tough because of their experience and their left-handed throwing. I wish we had at least one LHP. Overall, the statistics suggest that the Mariners have a slight advantage for starting pitchers.
Bullpen
Each team has some names on their 40-man roster who are potential relief pitchers. Spring Training may shift these lists. I replaced last year's Mariners' players with potential replacements.
SEA | Throwing Arm | '23 ERA | '24 proj. ERA | TEX | Throwing Arm | '23 ERA | '24 proj. ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Munoz | RHP | 2.94 | 3.54 | Leclerc | RHP | 2.68 | 3.57 |
Brash | RHP | 3.06 | 3.95 | Bradford | LHP | 5.3 | 4.7 |
Saucedo | LHP | 3.59 | 4.22 | Burke | LHP | 4.37 | 3.71 |
Speier | LHP | 3.79 | 4 | Smith/ Robertson | RHP | 4.40 | 3.66 |
Thornton | RHP | 2.01 | 3.91 | Sborz | RHP | 5.5 | 4.83 |
Topa/Voth | RHP | 2.61 | 4.66 | Yates | RHP | 3.28 | 4.02 |
Sewald / Berroa | RHP | 3.12 | 4.15 | Chapman/Tinoco | RHP | 2.18 | 4.05 |
Average | 2.48 | 4.06 | Average | 3.96 | 4.06 |
Baseball-Reference is more generous with projected ERAs for the Rangers than for the Mariners. For example, BR projects that Trent Thornton will go from a 2.01 ERA to a 3.91 ERA. Fangraphs had a similar dismal prediction for this player. Former Rangers' Aroldis Chapman will pitch for Pittsburgh and Will Smith will throw for Kansas City in 2024. While the Mariners had the advantage in 2023, losing Sewald and Topa, especially, leaves the Mariners with the same ERA average as the Rangers. The bullpen had a stronger ERA in 2023.
Mariners vs Rangers: Position Players / Batters
The Mariners made more changes in their starting infield and outfield position than did the Rangers. Unless the Mariners do something unexpected, I expect these players will remain the same: Cal Raleigh at catcher, Ty France at 1B, J. Crawford at shortstop, and J. Rodriguez at CF. The team has swapped J. Palanco for Cabby on 2B; Urias for G. Suarez on 3B; L. Raley for J. Kelenic in LF; Mitch Haniger for Teo Hernandez in RF; and Mitch Garver for Mike Ford as DH.
Lineup
The only question mark for the Rangers' is what will happen with Aroldis Garcia. He and the Rangers could not reach a salary agreement in arbitration. Texas' overall batting average was higher than the Mariners in 2023 but Baseball-Reference.com predicts the Rangers' average to be closer to the Mariners in 2024. When one player is listed, you see his 2023 and projected 2024 BAs. When two are listed, you see the first name's 2023 player's BA and the 2024 player's projected BA.
SEA | Batting arm | '23 BA | '24 proj. BA | TEX | Batting arm | '23 BA | '24 BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cal Raleigh (C) | S/R | .232 | .228 | J. Heim (C) | S/R | .258 | .243 |
Ty France (1B) | R/R | .25 | .268 | N. Lowe (1B) | L/R | .262 | .275 |
J, Caballero/J. Palanco (2B) | L/R / S/R | .221 | .254 | M. Semien (2B) | R/R | .276 | .261 |
E. Suarez / L. Urias (3B) | R/R/ R/R | .232 | .243 | J. Jung (3B) | R/R | .266 | .263 |
J. Crawford (SS) | L/R | .266 | .261 | C. Seager (SS) | L/R | .327 | .285 |
J. Kelenic / L. Raley (LF) | L/R / L/R | .253 | .243 | E. Carter | L/R /L/R | .306 | .274 |
J. Rodriguez (CF) | R/R | .275 | .285 | L. Taveras (CF) | S/R | .266 | .259 |
T. Hernandez/M. Haniger (RF) | R/R / R/R | .258 | .239 | A. Garcia (RF) / T. Jankowski | R/R /L/R | .245 | .241 |
T. Murphy/ M. Garver | L/R /R?R | .290 | .249 | E. Duran | R/R | .276 | .268 |
Average | 2.53 | 2.52 | Average | .276 | .263 |
Substitute and Utility Players
The 40-man roster for the Rangers has more pitchers than the Mariners. Those without batting averages are on the 40-man roster but have not reached MLB yet.
SEA | Batting Arm | 2023 BA | Proj. 2024 BA | TEX | Batting Arm | 2023 BA | Proj, 2024 BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canzone | LHB | .220 | .240 | Huff | RHB | .256 | .254 |
Moore | RHB | .207 | .218 | Ornelas | RHB | .143 | .253 |
Rojas | LHB | .245 | .261 | Knizner | RHB | .241 | .229 |
Haggerty | SH | .253 | .245 | Foscue | RHB | ||
Marlowe | LHB | .239 | .252 | Harris | LHB | ||
Trammell | LHB | .130 | .214 | Smith | LHB | .185 | .218 |
Zavala | RHB | .171 | .227 | ||||
DeLoach | LHB | ||||||
Hunt | RHB | ||||||
Clase | SH | ||||||
Taylor | RHB | .267 | .245 | ||||
Avg. | .21 | .237 | .206 | .239 |
We can expect some of the players in this category to break into the major leagues for the first time! I find it interesting that the averages are so close and that the Mariners have more players listed in this category.
While the Rangers beat the Mariners nine times in 2023, I predict that they will win seven games against Seattle in 2024, though I hope that Texas wins fewer. In our last battle with the Rangers, the Mariners won three out of four games. Interestingly, the Mariners also won four more AL West games in 2023 than did the Rangers.
After Spring Training in 2023, I predicted that the AL West would be competitive. I was correct. The Rangers won the World Series but the Astros won the Division and the Mariners beat the Rangers in Division games.
I look forward to seeing what the 2024 season brings to the AL West!