Where do the Mariners stack up against rivals in the A.L. West after the first month?

Baseball is a long season. I know that is not news to anybody, I know. Baseball plays 162 games per season, the most out of any major sports league in all of the world. When you play that many games, you need to have a short memory. a 3-game losing streak is not the end of the world. Winning 8 in a row does not mean you are bound for the World Series. Heck, you can win 116 games in a season and not even make the World Series. (Too soon). I know, I'm sorry.

I say all of this because it is a long season. April records do not mean much in September. Yeah, you can come up short by a game or two and miss the playoffs, but more times than not, the wild card teams don't make too much noise in the playoffs (ignoring 2023). Yeah, those games in April would have gone towards that win total, but a team should not have to win 12 of their next 15 to get into the playoffs.

With all of that said, I am writing this as of April 29th. So keep that in mind when looking at the records moving forward. I am going to go in reverse order of the current American League West division standings. I do not expect this to be the final year standing at all, but the current standings are interesting and surprising.

5th place in the A.L. West: Houston Astros (9-19), 6.0 games back

This may be the biggest surprise of 2024 so far. The Astros have the 4th worst record in all of baseball and are currently only better than the Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, and the Colorado Rockies. This is not some bad streak that they had early on, they have just been playing bad baseball. They were swept in their first series of the year in 4 games by the New York Yankees.

Houston won their next series against the Blue Jays, which was highlighted by Ronel Blanco's no-hitter. They would go on to split a 4-game series against the Rangers but were then swept by the Kansas City Royals. They also have been swept by the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs. Could this team, who has been to 7 straight ALCS, be this bad?

No, I still think that the Astros will figure it out moving forward. They have dealt with some crazy injuries already this season. They have had an entire pitching rotation on the Injured List this year. Justin Verlander just came back and has made a few starts, and Framber Valdez is back too. Cristian Javier is on the injured list with neck discomfort, while Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the IL with elbow injuries.

They have also dealt with bullpen injuries and overall ineffectiveness so far. They lost Kendall Graveman for the season, while their prized free agent Josh Hader is rocking a 7.59 ERA through 10.2 innings. Their other top reliever Ryan Pressley has been almost as bad so far, rocking a 6.75 ERA through his 10.2 innings of work. Hunter Brown has a 9.68 ERA through his 5 starts so far. I absolutely expect all 3 of these guy's ERA's to come back down to their normal.

Their run differential is currently sitting at -22, and that is with blowing the doors off of the Rockies in their last two games, where they gained back 14 runs towards their run differential. They have a losing record both at home and on the road, and their record against .500 or better teams currently sits at 4-16. For a team as talented as the Astros are, you still can't count them out. It is nice to see them at the bottom of the standings this far into the season, though.

4th place in the A.L. West: Los Angeles Angels (11-18), 5.0 games back

While the Astros' start to 2024 has been surprising, the Angels' start is pretty spot on. No Shohei Ohtnai, no chance at playoffs. Heck, even with Ohtani, the Angels never made the playoffs. Unlike basketball, one player can not carry a team into the postseason. Otherwise, the Angels would likely have been playoff contenders like the Houston Astros. They had both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in their prime. Both of those guys are maybe in the top 10 players of all time. Yikes.

Now for the 2024 Angels. A month into the season, their best player, according to WAR, is our old friend Tyler Anderson. Anderson has 1.4 bWAR through the first month. In his 5 starts, he has a 1.78 ERA and a 2-3 record. If you are a believer in FIP, like I am, He will come back to Earth in a bad, bad way. His FIP is 4.90! With an ERA of 1.78? He may have been as lucky as a player can be.

Mike Trout is having a weird season so far. He has 10 home runs, and just 14 RBI. He is hitting just .226/.328/.557/.884 with an OPS+ of 147. Should Trout stay healthy, He could hit a career high number of home runs. His personal record for home runs in a season is 45, which he did in 2019. Health is always the question for Trout, and he will be the difference if this team competes for a Wild Card spot or the 1st overall pick.

Currently, the Angels have a -35 run differential, which is the 5th worst in all of baseball. They are currently 4-9 at home, while they are a mildly respectable 7-9 on the road. As I am writing this, they are just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and they finally won a game after having lost 4 games in a row. Their record against .500 or better teams is just 5-14, and they have the Phillies coming into town early this week. Good luck.

3rd Place in the A.L. West: Oakland Athletics (13-17), 3.5 games back

We all know how back Oakland A's fans have it. This is the franchise's last year in the city of Oakland before they make their move to Sacramento in 2025. They will leave the confines of the Oakland Coliseum for a AAA team in California's State Capital. They will play in Sacramento for a few seasons before the team heads out to their new home on the Las Vegas Strip.

The A's are in a weird, purgatory period this year. Nobody believe that this team will make the Postseason, but they have been "Sneaky-alright" this year. 13-17 is a bad record no matter how you spin it. But with everything swirling around the team, the terrible expectations of the team, 13-17 is not that bad.

Their closer Mason Miller has reached "Appointment Television" status. He has touched 104 MPH with his fastball, and has been striking out some of the leagues best players. Last week in New York, Miller came in and faced Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He struck them all out swinging. Miller is now destined for the All-Star Game, should he stay healthy.

This is going to sound like I am picking on the A's, but they will come back down to Earth. Currently, they only have one player who is regularly in the lineup with an on base percentage above .300, and that is Lawrence Butler's .318. Tyler Nevin and Esteury Ruiz have an OBP over .300, but they do not have enough ABs to qualify. They also rank 29th out of 30 in runs scored with just 84.

The pitching rotation outside of Paul Blackburn has been bad. Blackburn and the bullpen has actually ben really good. The rest of the staff? Yikes. The A's rank 18th in team ERA (4.13). They have also given up 19 home runs so far, the most in all of baseball. I believe that they will fall from 18th down to 25th or worse in terms of ERA. I still expect that this team will finish last in the A.L. West.

1st place in the A.L. West: Seattle Mariners (16-13), Division Leader

The Seattle Mariners are in first place. How sweet are those words? Yes, it is not even May yet, but who cares? The Mariners took the division lead while winning a series against the Texas Rangers. The Mariners are living up to the hype so far, which is a far cry from where fans were thinking this team was not 3 weeks ago.

Yes, the offense is still struggling. They are 27th in batting average, 26th in OBP, 24th in slugging percentage, and 25th in OPS. Guys like Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver have not been playing up to the back of their baseball cards quite yet. I imagine those numbers will all hover around league average when all is said and done.

What the Mariners can do is pitch. They are 3rd in team ERA, 6th in strikeouts as a staff, 1st in WHIP (Walks + hits per inning pitched), and second in opponents batting average. Over the Mariners' last 17 games, the starting pitchers have given up just 18 earned runs. I am no mathematician, but that is just over a 1 earned run on average over the last 17 games. I think that is good?

The Mariners have a +11 run differential, which is the best in the A.L. West. They really need the bats to heat up to start complimenting this pitching staff. Their record at home is 10-7, while their road record is 6-6. The record against .500 teams is 11-9, so hopefully they can take advantage of sub-par teams moving forward.

I fully suspect this team to make it into the Postseason, most likely as a Wild Card team. This team is built for Postseason baseball. Relentless starting pitching, and a terrific bullpen. That combo leads to success more times than not in the playoffs.

As always, Go Mariners!