Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Guardians

A few years ago, an article series like this would have seemed like a waste of time. Before 2022, comparing the Seattle Mariners to anyone other than the worst teams in baseball was a waste of time. Now? Now things are different. In part 6 of an 8 part series, I'm going to take a look at the teams that could potentially stand in the Mariners way of not only making the postseason but winning the American League.

Today, we'll take a look at the 3rd ranked team among my Tale of the Tape threats, the Cleveland Guardians. Other than the Seattle Mariners incredible 2022 season, there may not have been a better story in the American League than that in Cleveland.

Heading into the season, there were questions about whether Terry Francona would continue to manage after health concerns, and there was the debate about whether they should trade Jose Ramirez. Instead of folding, Francona performed a masterclass in managing a young team, and a newly extended Jose Ramirez carried the load offensively. 

A dominant pitching performance, carried by former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, future Cy Young  contender Triston McKenzie, and one of the best bullpens in the game, the Guardians rolled through a weak AL Central. A 92 win season, an AL Central pennant, and within a game of making the ALCS, the Guardians are the biggest threats to the Mariners in terms of joining the two big dogs in the American League.

Why the Guardians are a threat

To win in the regular season, you need depth. To win in October, you need your stars to show up. I think Cleveland has the ingredients to do both.

The Cleveland offense carried 5 hitters that had an OPS+ over 120 in 2022, and have now added Bell and Zunino. If those guys mesh and produce, Cleveland will have six really good hitters surrounding their superstar in Jose Ramirez. From a pitching perspective, I expect Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie to continue to be stars, while the bullpen should still be really good, even with some reasonable regressions.

Depth on offense, two great starters to pair with an elite bullpen. The Guardians may have struggled against the Seattle Mariners last season record-wise, but most of those games were really competitive.

So… The Guardians or the Mariners?

While those games were close, I can't help but think about how the Mariners went 6-1 vs Cleveland. Time and time again, the Mariners looked a little deeper. On offense, Julio Rodriguez has the ability to match Jose Ramirez, while the depth of Ty France, Geno Suarez, Teo Hernandez and Cal Raleigh is a slight edge for me over Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez. Shane Bieber’s best may be better than anything Seattle has, but the potential of the Mariners having four #1 quality starters is something Cleveland can’t match in a 5 or 7 game series, even if their bullpen is slightly better than the Mariners. 

With the Guardians expected to run away with the Central, I can't help but wonder how aggressive they'll be at the trade deadline. With Shane Bieber's time and eventual contract demand getting closer to the day, and Cleveland's budget limitations, are they willing to strike big for a World Series chance this season? We'll see who is on the market, but if a certain team in Anaheim is struggling and the greatest player of our generation is made available…look out for Cleveland.

While that hypothetical probably changes the balance of power in baseball, let's stick with what the Guardians are right now.

The additions of Bell and Zunino closed the gap, but the Mariners still hold a slight edge. 

Tale of the Tape Winner: Seattle Mariners