Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Blue Jays

A few years ago, an article series like this would have seemed like a waste of time. Before 2022, comparing the Seattle Mariners to anyone other than the worst teams in baseball was a waste of time. Now? Now things are different. In part 5 of an 8 part series, I'm going to take a look at the teams that could potentially stand in the Mariners way of not only making the postseason but winning the American League.

Today, we'll take a look at the 4th ranked team among my Tale of the Tape threats, the Toronto Blue Jays. This team was supposed to be the darling of baseball in 2022, a betting favorite to win the American League. Instead, inconsistency on offense, consistently bad pitching, and the firing of their manager in the middle of the season put the Blue Jays on the brink of a major disappointment at the all-star break.

Through all their flaws, new manager John Schneider was able to right the ship, and help the Blue Jays finish the season strong and secure the valuable #4 seed in the American League playoffs. With home field in the Wild Card Series, there was hope that Toronto would be able to fulfill their lofty preseason expectations, but the Mariners had other plans. Cal Raleigh and Luis Castillo essentially put game 1 of the series on ice after a dominant 1st inning. In game 2, we saw one of the wildest collapses (comebacks in my opinion) of all time. Up 8-1 in the 6th inning, the Mariners stormed back to win 10-9, sweeping the Jays in front of a stunned Toronto crowd.

Can the Blue Jays rebound, or are they not quite ready for prime time?

Mariners v Blue Jays: Offseason Summary

After a disappointing season in 2022, Toronto had quite a busy off-season. It kicked off with their big trade with the Seattle Mariners, sending all-star OF Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners in exchange for relief pitcher Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko. This was a weird trade, as Seattle was getting a legitimate cleanup hitter in a contract year, while the Blue Jays appeared willing to part with some offense to help with their relief pitching.

To replace the production they lost from the Hernandez trade, the Jays made three moves. First, they signed veteran CF Kevin Kiermaier to a 1 year deal. Light on the bat, but strong with the defense and leadership, Kiermaier is a nice depth move.

Their second move was a stunning trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Toronto sent OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr and prized catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona in exchange for OF/C Daulton Varsho. This is a massive trade, as Varsho was really good last year, but was a heavy price to pay. Varsho is 3 years younger than Gurriel Jr, so it's reasonable to think he'll be a better player going forward, but the Moreno piece could be massive. 

The final offensive mood was a stinger for me and many Mariners fans, as the Jays were able to sign 1B/DH Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal. When healthy, Belt crushed right-handed pitching and brings championship experience to a team that needs it.

To complete their hectic off-season, the Blue Jays brought in starting pitcher Chris Bassitt away from the New York Mets. With Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi being absolutely horrendous in 2022, the rotation desperately needed stability.

Out were Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, in are Bassitt, Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier.

Why the Blue Jays are a threat

There's a reason why so many pundits thought Toronto was going to win the AL East in 2022. This roster is loaded with talent and potential. Stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, and Bo Bichette get all the credit, but there's so much more. The offense obviously added in the offseason, but also return Matt Chapman, Alejandro Kirk, and Whit Merrifield Jr.

This is a top 5-6 offense in all of baseball and essentially carried their pitching to 92 wins. It doesn't get talked about a lot, but there were rumors that Toronto was extremely close to a deal to acquire Cleveland's star hitter Jose Ramirez before J-Ram and Cleveland agreed on an extension. I can't even imagine that offense with a hall of fame level player in Ramirez joining them. 

The pitching was not all bad, as Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had excellent years for Toronto. Adding a really good #3 starter in Chris Bassitt should do wonders for the rotation. A pitcher like Jose Berrios is still young and extremely talented. If Toronto can figure out what went wrong and get the guy that has averaged close to a 120 ERA+ the previous three seasons, then we're talking about a top 5-6 rotation in the American League to go with that incredible offense.

As the Mariners and the world saw in the Wild Card Series, the Blue Jays bullpen was horrendous. While Erik Swanson throwing as he did in 2022 won't make their pen great, they just need to be average with the way their offense throws runs up on the board.