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STEAMER is big on Luis Urias for 2024... but is it enough for the Mariners new 3B?
STEAMER sees a return to form for Luis Urias in 2024. However, is it going to be enough to have an impact for the Mariners?
There has been a lot of conversation and argument about the Mariners offseason acquisition, Luis Urias. Some good, some fair, and some ridiculous. It's tough, because Mariners fans wanted "more" added to the offense this offseason, but we haven't seen much, with Urias and Garver as the only additions. When you have holes and subtract, you need to add more than 2 hitters.
That's where the conversations about Urias come into play. Is he a big enough addition to even count? If you are getting 2023 Urias, then you would be better off playing one of the random Minor Leaguers within the system instead.
However, if you are getting 2021 or 2022 Urias, then I think it's a good addition. He had strong seasons both years (Fangraphs has 2.1 and 2.3, BBR has 3.3 and 3.1) and would slide in wonderfully with production like that.
STEAMER is a proponent of that happening in their projections, calling for a return to form for Luis Urias. Check out the 2 good seasons, and then the projections for 2024.
2021 - 490 AB, 25 2B, 23 HR, .249/.345/.445, 112 WRC+, 2.3 fWAR
2022 - 406 AB, 17 2B, 16 HR, .239/.335/.404, 110 WRC+, 2.1 fWAR
2024 - 344 AB, 16 2B, 12 HR, .230/.328/.384, 103 WRC+, 1.6 fWAR
It might just be a fair projection to have the power drop-down now that he will be going up against the Marine Layer. From all the rumblings we've heard this offseason, it seems like he is going to be the team's third baseman for 2024, so he should get more AB's than what is listed. The confusing part is STEAMER giving him the highest full-season dWAR mark of his career. I'd rather see a darn good bat and okay glove than the other way around with how this team is put together.
I still don't know what to think about Urias. Would a 105-110 WRC+ be good enough? I think the hard to swallow part of this is that it should be, but he should be like the 6th/7th best hitter on the team. Instead, it looks like he might have to shoulder more of the load as arguably the 4th/5th best hitter on the team behind Cal, Garver, Julio, and JP.
STEAMER is probably being pretty fair with their predictions. Let's just hope he finds some more doubles and has that average closer to .245 than .230.