Should the Mariners shuffle the pen?

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Relievers are volatile. We've all seen it and heard it before specifically, with the Mariners in Fernando Rodney, Diego Castillo, Matt Festa, and this season Andres Munoz. While it might seem like the sky is falling in the Seattle bullpen, they still sit in the bottom third with 15 blown saves (27th in MLB). There is undoubtedly some recency bias at play this week, as the once-hottest team in baseball has blown three games late.

Some fans will clamor as the Paul Sewald trade being the watershed moment, heralding the move as robbing Peter (relief) to pay Paul (offense). Others say if owner John Stanton ponied up some cash in the offseason, we wouldn't have had to trade a key bullpen arm. Then there is another camp that points to veterans who underperformed until midseason (Ty France, Geno Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez). It's a combination of the above, but that's neither here nor there.

The real question is, what will manager Scott Servais do about it? Gone are the days when teams would float high-priced under-performing players through waivers in August and early September. The third wild card has changed everything. The only move Servais can make to solidify the game's back end is possibly shuffling the pen. Thankfully, there are a few moves Servais can make ahead of the upcoming series with Houston to right the ship.

Move #1: Move Matt Brash out of the 9th

Flamethrower Matt Brash has a beautiful baseball-savant page littered with elite metrics. He ranks in at least the 92nd percentile in eight categories. The problem is opposing batters have a .412 batting average on balls in play despite Brash landing in the 99th percentile in barrel percentage. Last night's disastrous inning in Kansas City was a microcosm of the 26-year-old's season.

The 25-year-old reliever had a less-than-stellar stat line (1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 R) amounting to his team-leading fourth blown save of the year. According to Future Star Series' Joe Doyle, Brash has fired five innings of ineffective ball (10.80 ERA, 2.400 WHIP) in the ninth inning. It's time to move Brash back to a lower leverage pocket to regain confidence and lighten his workload (59 G).

Move #2: Elevate Justin Topa

I'll admit it. I had not learned who Justin Topa was when Jerry Dipoto acquired him this winter. I had a good idea, though, mainly because the Mariners have a type regarding relief arms. Well, 100 games into the season and Paul Sewald now toiling in the desert has me firming in Camp Topa.

Justin Topa, Painted 97mph Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/uBZ1AGLM9E
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 13, 2023

The oft-injured reliever has authored a breakout rookie season and is the Mariners' hottest bullpen arm. Topa is holding the opposition to a .197 BAA while maintaining a spectacular strikeout-to-walk rate (24.6% K – 4.6% BB). Additionally, he's allowed a remarkable zero barrels since June 27th. That sure sounds like your high-leverage replacement for Brash.

Move #3: Recall Prelander Berroa

Rookie Bryan Woo is scheduled to come off the injured list this weekend (August 20th). The team plans to unveil a six-man rotation for the next few weeks to protect their young arms and keep Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert fresh. There are always pros and cons for the six-man starting staff.

The biggest drawback is one less arm in the bullpen. That's why having relievers who can go multiple innings is imperative. Scott Servais and pitching coach Pete Woodworth already have Tayler Saucedo, Trent Thornton, and Isaiah Campbell as multi-inning options. I'd look to add one more low-leverage arm with the ability to throw multiple frames, and the guy for the job is Prelander Berroa.

Prelander Berroa strikes out the side. pic.twitter.com/8rsYGy38Fl
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) August 5, 2023

Berroa's initial stay with the big-league club was short-lived, as the team saw the need for more seasoning. Since June, the Mariners' No. 12 prospect has fired 16 straight scoreless outings and punched out 27 batters. Scouts say the command is sharp, which was the only thing holding him back. Adding Berroa to the pen and sending Ryder Ryan to Tacoma would infuse some high-upside swing-and-miss stuff to the team needing a solid bridge from the starters to the backend arms.

While the hometown team took some gut punches over the past few days, they are still two games out of the third wildcard with a chance to make up ground this weekend in Houston. The time is now to shuffle the cards and restack the pen.

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