SEAside Thoughts: Will the West be Won?

The sting and stench of Dodgers champagne being popped off at T-Mobile Park doesn't quite hit the heart as bad now does it? After a brutal home sweep that saw the Mariners falter out of the playoff standings, as well as showing how far they are from LA's caliber of contender, the boys needed a pick me up.

HELLO AND THANK YOU OAKLAND!

Just what the doctor ordered, the Mariners went to Oakland, brought more fans than the A's had, and had one of the more business-like sweeps you'll see all year. The pitching was very good. It wasn't the best performances from Woo, Castillo, and Kirby, but they were all good enough to get the win. Congrats again to Luis Castillo's incredible strikeout accomplishment. He continues to be the Rock for this organization, and has clearly shown he's the 2nd best pitcher in the American League in 2023. Clean up some of those midseason dinger problems, and the Cy Young will probably be his in 2024.

The bottom of the lineup showed up, as Caballero and Canzone each woke up from slumbers to help propel the sweep. Canzone has some of the most horrific AB's I've seen all year, but nobody on this team hits moon ball homers like Canzone.

Speaking of power, the traditional star M's brought power to a lifeless ballpark, outscoring the A's 18-5. Julio joined rarified air with the 30/30/100 club. Cal Raleigh was an absolute all-star in the series, gunning down base runners left and right, while hitting his 29th bomb of the season. Raleigh now has a 6 home run cushion lead for tops in baseball as a catcher. He's clearly taking the mantle as best catcher in the American League.

The sweep brought to an end an absolute drubbing of a season series that saw Seattle beat Oakland 12 games out of 13.

As we bid adieu to one of the worst baseball teams ever assembled, so begins arguably the most intense, nail-biting, emotional 10 games of the Mariners franchise.

The 2023 MLB playoffs start today for the Seattle Mariners

The Situation

As we head into the tightest division race in the history of baseball division races, here's how the division and wildcard standings currently look.

1- Baltimore 95-57

2- Houston 85-68

3- Minnesota 81-72

4- Tampa Bay 93-60

5- Toronto 85-67

6- Texas 84-68

7- Seattle 84-68

Remaining schedule of teams battling for final spots

Toronto- 3 at TB, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs TB (.565 SOS)

Seattle- 3 at Tex, 3 vs Hou, 4 vs Tex (.554 SOS)

Texas- 3 vs Sea, 3 at LAA, 4 at Sea (.523 SOS)

Houston- 3 vs KC, 3 at Sea, 3 at Ari (.472 SOS)

Notes: As you can see, this race is extremely tight, and filled with massive matchups throughout the league. Currently, the Mariners are on the outside looking in, but they control their destiny more than any team, as they have 10 divisional games, all with teams they are currently behind. While the dream is to win the AL West, the goal should remain to make the playoffs, and Toronto’s path should not be forgotten. The Jays are currently a .5 game up on the Mariners, but their six games against Tampa Bay could be massive. Tampa has the #4 seed (and home field advantage in the WC Series) all but locked up, but they’re still chasing the Orioles, who they trail by 1.5 games. If Tampa stays close, they will push hard for the top seed in the AL. If they slip, well that final series in Toronto could be meaningless, and Seattle will have no room for error. 

Seattle at Texas pitching probables

Friday, September 22, 2023

Sea: B. Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) v Tex: D. Dunning (10-6, 3.78ERA)

Saturday, September 23, 2023

Sea: L. Gilbert (13-6 3.77 ERA) v Tex: J. Montgomery (9-11, 3.38 ERA)

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Sea: B. Woo (4-4, 3.90 ERA) v Tex: N. Eovaldi (11-4, 3.05 ERA)

Seattle vs Houston pitching probables

Monday, September 25, 2023

Sea: L. Castillo (14-7, 3.06 ERA) v Hou: J. Verlander (11-8, 3.44 ERA)

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Sea: G. Kirby (11-10, 3.58 ERA) v Hou: C. Javier (9-4, 4.64 ERA)

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Sea: B. Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) v Hou: F. Valdez (12-10, 3.20 ERA)

Notes: Bryce Miller kicks off the playoff push with a start in Arlington, just a few hours from his hometown. The Houston Astros decided to adjust their rotation, putting their best pitchers in position to pitch in Seattle. Monday's Verlander v Castillo showdown has the look and feel of a potential ALCS battle, in game 155. Bryce Miller's start against Houston on the 27th will be the final start of the regular season for the sensational rookie.

Keys to Victory

How much more can you give me?

As dominant as our pitching staff has been all season, I think we all can feel the stress and fatigue the pitching has experienced in September. A dominant trip to Oakland, paired with a rest day yesterday, and there should be optimism that Seattle's staff and bullpen can hold the line for just 10 more days. Opponents like the Rangers and Astros want to get in a shootout with you, but Seattle controls the game if they make it a pitching and defensive battle.

Fend off the lefties

You can make a strong case that these ten games will be decided by how well the Mariners fare against some of the best left handed hitters in the game: Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.

Mariners fans know all too well the pain that Tucker and Alvarez can deliver, but there should be some real nervousness about seeing the brother of M's legend Kyle Seager and MVP candidate. Seattle's playoff hopes will likely rely on Tayler Saucedo and Gabe Speier's ability to win those important matchups vs Hall of Fame caliber players in the later innings of close ball games. Anybody else feeling a little sweaty?

Two role players need to step up

It'd be great to see Ty France, Dominic Canzone, Mike Ford, Jarred Kelenic, and Geno Suarez all get hot in the final stretch. If they did, the Mariners are probably riding a 13 game winning streak to an AL West title. Baseball doesn't work like that, and not everyone handles the moment. I'd love to see a few more Canzone moon shots, but he has never been in a situation like this before. This comes down to the guys that have been there.

France, Suarez, and Kelenic. They were all there for the playoff push last season. They experienced the highs of Toronto and lows of Houston. They should be prepared for this next moment. If Seattle wants to guarantee a playoff berth, two of these guys need to step up. Suarez had a good series against Oakland (4-12 with 2 Doubles) and absolutely owned the Rangers last year, getting 19 hits in 19 games against Texas. If Kelenic can keep up his ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts, he'll be an extremely valuable bat at the bottom of the lineup.

Big time players make big plays in big moments

Role players help you hold home field advantage and tend to play better in front of cheering home fans, but stars deliver no matter the venue. If the Mariners are going to win the AL West, it starts by setting the tone on Arlington, and your best players need to send a message. This run will be defined by what Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez can, or can't accomplish.

Anybody that has read my articles (thank you!) knows how strongly I feel about needing four core offensive pillars if you want any hope of making it to the ALCS or further. History has shown over 80% of teams that played in an LCS, had 4 or more players with an OPS+ of 120 or higher in their lineup. All four of the Mariners I mentioned meet or are within range of that magical number. 

We saw last year in Toronto, the stars stepped up early. Julio got on base, scored on a double and then Cal Raleigh sent Alek Manoah into an early retirement with a massive 2-run homer run. JP drew two BB's at the 9 hole. In game 2's epic comeback, Raleigh went 3 for 4 while Crawford's massive bases-clearing double tied the game late. We all saw what Hernandez was capable of in the big moment for Toronto, and Seattle will need that tonight.

If 3 of the core players can step up, and help get Seattle a quick start in game one, and in the series at Texas, the pressure will completely swing to their side, and the dam could burst quickly.