SeaSide Thoughts: 5 reasons to still believe in the Mariners

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It'll take more than a few wins to wash away the horror show that was the first 16 games of the Seattle Mariners 2024 season, but the last few days have been a good start.

A dominant 9-3 victory on Monday that saw the offense finally wake up and George Kirby’s precision and return to dominance was followed by a 3-1 win on Tuesday that saw the pitching continue its return to greatness, while the offense did enough and the defense was superb, giving Seattle their first series win of the year.

As the Mariners go for the Wednesday matinee sweep, it feels like the tide is slowly turning. This team has a long way to go to get to the World Series potential that I truly believe they have, but there's been some recent trends that has me believing the M’s are about to go on a run and show they will be a serious challenger in 2024.

5 reasons to still believe in the Mariners

Haniger looks like 2021 Haniger

I wrote about it in our opening week SeaSide Thoughts about how great it was to have Mitch Haniger back, but I didn't anticipate Mitch Haniger being 2021 Mitch Haniger!

Before Tuesday, Haniger was posting an OPS+ of 160, and that will only rise after going 2/4 with a big RBI single late to give the Mariners a 3-1 lead. Haniger is now slashing .300/.382/.882 with 3 HRs and 12 RBI.

Before the season, the hope was that Haniger could help the team as a veteran depth piece, but instead, he has been carrying the offense. While this is probably not ideal, it has become a necessity with the Dominic Canzone injury and the curious case of Luke Raley not getting playing time.

If Seattle can get their offensive stars cooking, and pair them with this version of Mitch Haniger, the offense can still be a really good lineup.

Bryce and Logan's growth

While it was great to see Luis Castillo and George Kirby each bounce back in their most recent starts, the brightest spots of this rough season so far have been the utter domination by the #3 and #4 guys in Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller.

Even during this team's darkest moments, Bryce Miller’s growth from year 1 to year 2 has been near perfect since his first start against Boston. In Seattle's lone win against the Chicago Cubs, Miller got the win, going 6.1IP giving up 1 unearned run on 3 hits and striking out 4 on 100 pitches. Despite his 3 walks, Miller still hitting 6.1IP on just 100 pitches is incredible efficiency.

On the season, Miller has a 1.96 ERA, striking out 17 batters in 18.1IP, and an ERA+ of a whopping 194. His command of his electric fastball in the upper half of the zone, paired with his new and devastating splitter dominating the lower half, clearly has hitters lost at the plate.

Thought to be trade bait, Miller has the look of a potential 4th ace level talent in the starting rotation, which feels like a faster rise than expected for Miller, but has been needed so far while the team tries to find their footing.

Last night, Logan Gilbert continued his Ace-like level start, going 6.2IP, giving up just 3 hits, 1 BB and 1 run, striking out 6 on just 90 pitches.

Mariners radio broadcaster Gary Hill tweeted last night that Logan Gilbert is tied for second in baseball for the most starts allowing 1ER or less, while going 6.2IP. It's early, but it feels like Gilbert is making the jump to becoming a real problem for the rest of baseball, and staking his claim to being the best pitcher on a stacked rotation.

Jorge Polanco has awoken and looks legit

The curse of the Seattle Mariners 2nd base position is real. Take away the underrated and underappreciated Robinson Cano, and the position has been a black hole for a long time.

There was hope that this would change, when General Manager Justin Hollander finally got his man, trading four players to the Minnesota Twins in a deal that brought former all-star Jorge Polanco to the Mariners. The first ten games not only went poorly for the M’s, but were a nightmare start for Polanco on a new team.

With the whispers of Kolten Wong 2.0 were just about to get a little louder, Polanco has awoken, and shown why Seattle gave up a sizable amount for him.

Despite a brutal start, Polanco has a 108 OPS+, and while he's currently slashing just .203/.338/.694, in his last 6 games before last night, Polanco is slashing .263/.462/1.040. While the hits haven't exactly been rolling in, Polanco has shown his power, including his big 3-run bomb to kick off their series against the Reds. Maybe even more important, Polanco has drawn 9 walks in his last 7 games. He's been an absolute on base machine and has produced when the big moment has arrived.

The defense will always be a question, especially with him playing second instead of 3B, but Perry Hill continues to work his magic as Polanco has looked much better since the Milwaukee series with the glove.

If he can be a serviceable defender, there's still a great chance that Polanco hits 25 bombs and produces a OPS+ above 110, which is exactly what this team was hoping for when they acquired him.

The core can't possibly be this bad for long

While Jorge Polanco and Mitch Haniger have carried the offense and kept this team afloat through 17 games, this team will go nowhere if the core can't wake up.

The quartet of JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Mitch Garver, the expected core of this team's offense, are hitting under .200 combined and have combined for just 4 home runs with Garver and Julio sitting on awkward goose eggs in that department.

In Seattle’s 3-1 victory, there were small signs of progress for what looks like a humbled group so far. Crawford had 2 hits and was robbed of another. Raleigh had 2 walks and Garver added a BB that produced the game-winning run.

Julio not only had two hits but had arguably the best defensive game of his career, making incredible catches and making the game-saving assist in the 7th inning when it looked like the Reds were about to tie the game up.

These are not clear indications that an offensive explosion is on the horizon, but it's baby steps. The hits and the walks are all signs that these four are starting to see the ball better and are baby steps to better confidence and belief that the cold start is thawing out.

Don't be surprised if we see the power and production return in excess when the team plays in Colorado in what appears to not be terrible weather (71° on Sunday), and the offense wakes up just in time for battles against the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves.

The West is as... as bad as can be

I've been hammering this point for a while, I thought the American League could be the worst we've seen in a decade. While it is early, the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, and Kansas City Royals are trying hard to prove me wrong. While they have all had fantastic, and in some cases, surprising starts, what has been most surprising is how bad the AL West looks.

Arguably the premier division last year, this year zero teams are above .500 as we near the 20 game mark. The Rangers are currently in first at 9-9 but have gone just 3-7 in their last ten games, and are forced to rush up top pitching prospect Jack Leiter as their arms continue to fall apart to injuries.

The Astros, who are hoping to get Justin Verlander back soon (possibly this Friday), have way more problems than his health, as they sit at just 6-13, and have had their pitching consistently get lit up while the lineup is far too top heavy.

While the Halos and A’s have been more competitive than originally thought, it's clear that they will fade over the course of the season.

The Rangers and Astros look a little fat and happy off past success, wounded, and mortal. A tiger is most dangerous when it is wounded, but we'll find out what their mentality looks like when the Mariners come rolling into Texas the next few weeks.

The Mariners have been left out of the glory that both of those franchises have experienced lately. If they can capitalize on some of these encouraging signs I've seen lately, the West can be there for the taking, comfortably.

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