Outlook for Mariners top prospect still bright despite struggles in 2024

The Seattle Mariners were ecstatic to select shortstop Colt Emerson with the 22nd overall pick in last summer's Amateur Draft. At the time, MLB Pipeline ranked Emerson as their 29th-best prospect in the draft. The then 17-year-old Ohio product hit the ground running in last year's professional debut. Eight games in the Complex League was all the organization needed to see before promoting Emerson to Low-A Modesto. From there, he finished 2023 with a bang, posting a 147 wRC+. It was an outstanding showing all around, but Emerson again returned to Modesto to open 2024.

That return wasn't much of a surprise for such a young prospect. However, again, Emerson got out of the gate strong. In 2024, Emerson appeared in 40 games for the Nuts, slashing .293/.440/.427. His 5.9% swinging strike rate ranked among the very best in the Low-A ranks. Again, Emerson forced his way up a level, this time to High-A Everett. The results weren't quite so strong, but that shouldn't be cause for concern for Mariners fans.

Despite less impressive results, Colt Emerson continues to prove his worth in High-A

The High-A Everett Aqua Sox finished their season with a 32-34 record in the second half. That was good for fourth place in the Northwest League. Emerson appeared in 29 games for the Sox, slashing just .225/.331/.317. His .092 ISO was the lowest mark of his pro career thus far at any full-season affiliate. It all came together for a 90 wRC+ — again the lowest mark of Emerson's pro career so far. Despite those struggles, underlying data points to more success on the horizon.

I was able to see Emerson last week for Everett. He went 1/4 with a single and a walk. His one hit was a solid swing. Emerson got his hands around quickly and hit a sharp ground ball into the outfield.

The .225 batting average didn't look pretty on the surface, but Emerson continued to make healthy contact in High-A. His 84.2% zone contact rate alongside a very low 17.9% chase rate were both just continuations of what we've seen from Emerson his entire pro career thus far. For Modesto, he posted similar numbers with an 88.1% zone contact rate and 13.8% chase rate.

For a prospect so young to move up a level and maintain such healthy results is a welcome sign. Emerson continues to stack up well against some of the best prospects in the game. His 7.3% swinging strike rate this season with Everett finished just ahead of the 2024 first-overall pick, Travis Bazzana. For the Mariners, it won't provide any immediate help. The big league lineup could use a boost but Emerson is at least two years away.

Has the timeline shifted any for Emerson's potential big league debut?

That timeline for Emerson lines up nicely with the end of J.P. Crawford's current contract. Defensively, Emerson plays great defense in the hole. When I saw him last week, he showcased very fluid movements on the infield and a strong, accurate arm. A move to third base may be in the cards, but there's no reason to settle on that decision this early. Emerson has the makings of a future All-Star caliber shortstop in the Major Leagues. MLB Pipeline says as much as well, ranking Emerson as the 29th-overall prospect in baseball:

Emerson has excellent instincts and is a steady defender at shortstop even though he’s an average runner. He has enough arm for the left side of the infield and played a good third for Team USA, while he also got some reps at second during his pro debut. Wherever he settles in, he has the chance to be an everyday big league performer and gives the Mariners an opportunity to boast a trifecta of high school draftee standouts, following Harry Ford and Cole Young.

Don't let the early struggles at High-A fool you. Colt Emerson is well on his way to becoming the next elite prospect to headline the Mariners' farm system and should be exactly the supplement the lineup needs around Julio Rodriguez by the time he's ready to debut.