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New evidence emerges to clarify purpose behind Mariners’ Eugenio Suarez trade

Seattle sent their starting third baseman to the Diamondbacks, causing quite a stir among fans. However, they might have been on to something.

By Jason Wang |
Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners / Steph Chambers/GettyImages
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All things considered, Eugenio Suarez had a productive two years in Seattle. He slashed a cumulative .234/.327/.423 for an OPS+ of 114 and hit 53 doubles and 53 home runs. His defense improved to be first class in 2023 and he accumulated a total of 6.2 rWAR for the team, so why was traded away for what many believed to be a very discounted package?

A few days ago, Ryan Divish wrote a piece for the Seattle Times reviewing each move of the offseason for the Mariners and when talking about the Suarez move, said this:

The 32-year-old started showing signs of a rapid decline in 2023. The Mariners were frustrated at his conditioning level when he arrived at spring training, and his time in the World Baseball Classic made it worse. Though his strikeout rate (30.8%) and totals (214) were still high, his power numbers, which made those punchouts somewhat palatable, were down and his bat speed appeared slower. Would that trend continue? And were the Mariners willing to pay Suarez’s $11 million salary and $2 million buyout of his 2025 club option to find out?
Ryan Divish

Sure, Suarez saw a steep decline in offense and led the American League in strikeouts for the second year in a row. However, what other signs of regression did he show? Based on Statcast data, it wasn't much. Between 2022 and 2023, Suarez still had great quality of contact numbers along with consistent performance in other batting categories.

2022

2023

Average Exit Velocity

89.8 mph

90.3 mph

Barrel Rate

14.8%

13.2%

Hard Hit Rate

43.5%

43.0%

Sweet Spot Rate

36.4%

37.7%

Chase Rate

21.5%

23.6%

Whiff Rate

33.1%

32.8%

Strikeout Rate

31.2%

30.8%

Walk Rate

10.1%

11.6%

It would seem that he didn't slip too much in any one area and actually improved his walk, strikeout, and whiff rates slightly. However, his xSLG still decreased from .454 to .419, so what was the cause if it wasn't a decrease in average exit velocity or increase in punchouts? What other areas could the front office have been worried about?

The Diagnosis

With his slugging percentage being the only part of his slash line to see a significant decline, Lets dive deeper to find why. He had 11 more hits and five more doubles in 2023 than he did in 2022 but this could be attributed to the extra 55 at-bats he had. He also had nine more home runs and two more triples, giving him a grand total of 249 total bases in 2022, 15 more than 2023. This means that the difference in slugging was largely driven by the fewer home runs, but let's get even deeper and see what other aspects of his hitting game took a step back.

While I'm no hitting coach, I tried taking a stab at finding at least some sort of pattern. The spray chart for all of his batted balls in both 2022 and 2023 is a good start.

While the infield is a bit of a crowded mess, one can see that Suarez seemed to have more hard contact on his pull-side. This becomes a little more clear when we isolate the spray chart to show just his batted balls that ended up as hits.

A significant portion of his hits in 2023 were on the left side of second base while his hits in 2022 were more spread out. A small yet intriguing piece of information is that the only two triples that Suarez hit in 2022 landed in the right field corner whereas he landed no hits in that same location in 2023. These more lopsided results could be a tell that his approach wasn't projecting well into the future, as it might have made it easier for fielders to position themselves.

This is backed up by Statcast data which saw an increase in pull percentage, a slight increase in straight batted balls, and a decrease in opposite percentage.

The Financials

After inheriting his contract from the Cincinnati Reds, the Mariners were going to be on the hook for ~$11 million and at least a $2 million buyout from his team option in 2025. As the roster currently stands, it would've made him the fourth highest player on the team. With extra salary space needed for the additions of Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and potentially another impact name, it seemed that the Mariners didn't believe in Suarez being able to earn his paycheck.

In addition to the available game data, Seattle most definitely has an even bigger set of data to track more minute details like swing speed, which according to Divish was slower. He also cited conditioning issues as contributing factors to the front office's lack of faith, something that would only grow worse with age. The return of haul of replacement-level catcher Seby Zavala and pitcher Carlos Vargas was definitely underwhelming but this seemed to be more of a salary dump than anything.

Eugenio Suarez was one of the most electric players in Seattle over the past two years and it would be unwise to count him out just yet. With a hole still at the third base spot, it'll be interesting to see who the Mariners ultimately select as his successor for the near future.

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