At the trade deadline, the Seattle Mariners weren’t sure which direction they were headed, but now it’s clear their sights are set on the postseason. The Mariners have won six straight including a weekend sweep of the Houston Astros. They are sitting in the third Wild Card spot in the AL at 69-55. Now, they’ll head to Chicago for Game 1 of a three-game set with the Chicago White Sox.
The Mariners will send their ace, Luis Castillo to the mound to make his 26th start of the season tonight. Castillo is 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA and Chicago will counter with 1-5 Touki Toussaint. This will be Toussaint’s ninth start and 13th appearance. So far, he has a 4.47 ERA.
The Mariners are red hot and Vegas has them as the favorites on the road tonight.
Mariners vs. White Sox odds, run line and total
Mariners vs. White Sox prediction and pick
The Mariners should be in good hands with Luis Castillo on the mound, but two of his last three starts have been rough. On August 4, he went six innings and allowed seven runs on 10 hits. He allowed three home runs in that one and last time out he didn’t give up any long balls, but he did allow four runs on nine hits over seven innings. Sandwiched in between was another really strong start.
I’m not really sure what to expect from Castillo right now. He’s just allowing too many hard hit balls. He is 12th percentile in barrel rate and has an xSLG of .416. He’s given up 23 home runs this season which isn’t great news, but shouldn’t cost him against Chicago. Luis Robert Jr. has 33 home runs, but as a team they are 28th in home runs since the All-Star break.
Toussaint on the other side is 1st percentile in walk rate and it’s his lack of control that often costs him in outings. That’s why he has an xERA of 4.95 and a FIP of 5.17. I expect the Mariners to win, but with Castillo’s recent issues I see more value betting the over.
What's worse mentioning with Seattle's hot streak right now is Julio Rodriguez's dominance. In the past week he has 21 hits and is hitting .568. He has two homers and four doubles over that stretch and is looking like the best hitter in baseball. That will help this over cash.
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