Mariners vs. Reds prediction and odds for Tuesday, Sept. 5 (Back this UNDER trend)

There's a trend that bettors should follow in this Mariners-Reds matchup.

Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller.
Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller. / Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds took the first game of its series with the Seattle Mariners on Monday night, keeping them tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild card spot in the National League. 

Seattle, who has now lost back-to-back games, is tied atop the AL West with the Houston Astros. Can the Mariners bounce back on Tuesday night? 

Reds No. 4 prospect Connor Phillips will make his MLB debut in this game as the team looks to push for a playoff spot. This is a fun matchup since Phillips was drafted by the Mariners and actually traded to Cincinnati in the deal that sent Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to Seattle. 

He will be opposed by another young arm, Seattle’s Bryce Miller. The righty is making his 21st start this season. 

Mariners vs. Reds probable pitchers for Tuesday, Sept. 5

  • Mariners: Bryce Miller (righty) – 8-4, 3.93 ERA
  • Reds: Connor Phillips (right) – 0-0, 0.00 ERA

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Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this matchup:

Mariners vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Reds prediction and pick

I don’t really know what to expect from Phillips in his Major League debut, but he has been solid between AA and AAA ball this season, posting a 3.86 ERA in 25 games (24 starts). Phillips has struck out an impressive 154 batters in 105 innings of work. 

I think that plays well for us to look at the total in this game, which is set all the way at 10 after a 6-3 Reds win on Monday. 

I’m leaning with the UNDER in Game 2 of this series. 

It starts with Miller, who actually has a better Fielding Independent Pitching (3.76) than his ERA this season. The young righty has four outings this season where he’s allowed six or more runs, but in his other 16 starts he’s allowed three or fewer. 

So, as long as he avoids a clunker, we have a pretty solid floor to look at with his start. Miller had a 3.86 ERA and 3.32 FIP in six August appearances, and he also has the No. 2 bullpen in baseball backing him in this matchup. 

Like I mentioned, handicapping Phillips is a bit tricky, but both of these teams have fallen short of 10 runs more often than not as of late. 

The Reds have combined for fewer than 10 runs in eight of their last nine games, and the Mariners have done the same in seven of their last eight. 

Let’s trust these two young arms on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.