Mariners vs Athletics: Why overlooking this year's Athletics could be dangerous
The Mariners are back home to take on the Athletics in a three-game series, and overlooking this years team could prove dangerous to the Mariners
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The Mariners return home after a seven-game road trip that saw them go 3-4, winning the series against the Houston Astros, followed by nearly getting mopped against the Minnesota Twins. The Mariners are sitting in a much better spot than anyone envisioned they would be a month ago, but there is still work to be done.
For the greater part of the last decade, seeing the Athletics and the Royals back-to-back on your schedule would be a welcome sight for any team. This isn't the case in 2024, though, as the Royals are well above .500 and the Athletics are as feisty as any team in baseball, and only sit a few games under .500, despite their large negative run differential.
Against the Athletics, the Mariners went 15-4 in 2012, 11-8 in 2022, and 12-1 in 2023. I suspect this year's win ratio is going to be more in line with 2022, at least until their owner throws a fit and either trades anyone good away or sends them down to the minors (again).
It seems like a Khris Davis style Athletics team, as they don't have a great batting average (26th), but sit 3rd in home runs on the season. The Mariners will need to watch out for any mistakes, because the Athletics can make you pay, even in Seattle with the Marine Layer. Let's get into it and see what the Mariners can expect to face this weekend, and who they need to be wary of at the plate for Oakland.
Mariners vs Athletics: Pitching matchups
Friday, May 10th @ 6:40 PM - Bryan Woo vs Paul Blackburn
Saturday, May 11th @ 6:40 PM - Bryce Miller vs Alex Wood
Sunday, May 12th @ 1:10 PM - Luis Castillo vs Ross Stripling
Wait a minute... is that Bryan Woo? Yes, yes it is, as he will be making his season debut for the Mariners, finally set to return from injury after making his three rehab starts in the minors. He will toe the rubber to open the series, taking the spot of Emerson Hancock who was sent down to Tacoma after getting shelled in his last outing.
Which Paul Blackburn are we going to see? His last two outings have been two sides of the coin, with a dominant outing (7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER) against the Yankees after getting shellacked by the Orioles (4 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR). He's looked much better in 2024 than he did in 2023, and outside of a terrible 5 BB outing four starts ago, has only allowed five walks in his other 36.1 innings pitched.
Alex Wood had an awful start to the season, allowing 49 baserunners in 21.2 IP, with a 7.89 ERA. Since then, he has a 1.72 ERA but a 4.63 FIP in his last three starts, in large part to still allowed 21 baserunners across 15.2 IP. He has an awful BB rate, and it's a great opportunity for the Mariners to knock him out of the game early.
While Wood and Blackburn are coming off of great starts, Stripling would love to block out his last one. He gave up 10 hits and 11 runs (only 5 earned) in 1.2 innings against the Rangers. Prior to that, he had been doing admirable, with a 4.24 ERA across 40.1 innings, but still had a 1.339 WHIP, and was only striking out 6.02 hitters per nine innings.
Oh, and even though I know he would probably dice up the Mariners, I want to see Mason Miller pitch. Greatness is always appreciated.
Mariners vs Athletics: Hitters to watch
As a team, the Athletics are sitting at a slash line of .221/.299/.391, which ranks 26th/26th/15th. The two names to watch out for at the plate are Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker. Both of them are sitting right there with Cal Raleigh at nine home runs on the season. The Mariners have obviously shown an ability to shut down the best teams in baseball, but are also just coming out of a series where literally everyone got rocked.
I'm always wary of speed, and if Esteury Ruiz is feeling it, watch out. He led the American League last season with 67 stolen bases, so don't let the four for seven number fool you from this season.
This came out of nowhere, but Abraham Toro (former Mariner) is hitting an impressive .293/.351/.447 with three homers and eight doubles for them through his 36 games played. Toro was never able to figure it out for the Mariners, or the Brewers, but seems to have found his stride in Oakland. We love seeing most former Mariners succeed, but let's hope he waits until after this series to continue doing so.
JJ Bleday is the last guy we're highlighting today. With four homers and ten doubles, he's giving them surprising pop in the outfield. A slash line of .246/.329/.431 is worthy enough to get the job done, and he can end up on second base before you realize it if you aren't careful on the mound.
Mariners vs Athletics: Final thoughts and predictions
This isn't the Athletics team that we are used to, and the Mariners have to focus up against their divisional foe to get back on track after losing the four-game series to the Twins. The Mariners are still a bit above .500 with a 20-18 record, but are only 2.5 games ahead of the Twins entering Friday's action.
While Oakland has outscored the Mariners this season by a tally of 154 to 139, they've also given up a ton more runs, allowing 182 compared to the Mariners 137. Do the math, and you'll see the Mariners have a run differential spread of +30 over what Oakland has (+2 compared to -28).
Even with Oakland looking better this season, it is a series that the Mariners should win. I'm not calling for a sweep, but a series win sure seems doable here. If the Mariners can get a strong showing from Woo in his debut, that will be huge for the morale and momentum going forward.
The offense really should have a good chance to rough up Stripling a bit, and they should feast on Alex Wood and his struggles. If Wood makes it out of the 4th inning, then the Mariners offense has failed. Even though this isn't the garbage staff that Oakland had last season, they are still struggling, and the Mariners have another opportunity to get the offense cooking.
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