Mariners vs. Astros prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug.19 (Trust Seattle as underdogs)

The Mariners continue to push for a postseason berth after winning the series opener against the Astros, should you back Seattle again?
Aug 18, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA;  Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) reacts to
Aug 18, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) reacts to / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners heater continued on Friday, winning 2-0 in Houston to start a weekend series.

Seattle will look to keep pace in the AL Wild Card race with Logan Gilbert facing off against Framber Valdez in a high level pitching matchup. How should we bet this matchup in an AL West showdown?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Mariners vs. Astros odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Astros prediction and pick

While Valdez pitched a no hitter this month, he has been in the midst of a serious cold streak. Since the start of July, Valdez has pitched to a 5.24 ERA, and that's including his no-no against the Guardians on August 1st.

He now faces a Mariners lineup that is scorching at the dish, seventh in OPS this month at .809 while hitting .267. I expect Valdez, who has seen his strikeout numbers dwindle, to struggle to hold up against the Seattle bats that are cracking the ball at the moment.

Further, Gilbert should be in line for a strong start given his positive underlying metrics. He has an ERA of 3.80, slightly worse than expectation given his xERA is 3.65 and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.58.

His numbers are solid, and he showcased his upside against the Astros earlier this season, pitching seven innings of three hit baseball against the defending World Series champs on July 9th, allowing only one run.

Valdez's current form, mixed with Gilbert's upside and the Mariners strong bats this month make me bullish on the team's chances of a second straight win over the Astros.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.