Mariners Offseason Free Agency Target: Blake Snell should come home to Seattle

Blake Snell: One of the best in the game

Blake Snell is a soon-to-be 31-year-old ace who is also a soon-to-be two-time Cy Young award winner. It's crazy to think that Snell was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA on May 19th. From there, Snell became an alien, going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA. While the Padres were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball, Snell was a bright light, likely to become just the 7th pitcher to ever win the Cy Young in both leagues.

Snell went 14-9 with a league-best 2.25 ERA. He finished 3rd in baseball with 234 K's. He gave up the 5th fewest home runs, giving up only 1 homer per every 12 innings. Luis Castillo gave up a homer every 7 innings pitched in comparison, and Castillo was in the AL Cy Young hunt until the final two weeks of the season. His .181 opponents batting average and 182 ERA+ are easily the best in baseball. 

While his Baseball Savant page is beaming with red all over, he's got a few serious concerns. First, his command is a concern. His opponent's average is very low, but part of that is because he walks a ton. His 99 walks easily were the most in baseball, 16 more than the second guy. Simply put, guys can't hit him, but he'll constantly put himself in trouble, which is far from the organizational viewpoint of "Controlling the Zone".

The second concern with Blake Snell is his inability to go deep into games. In his final 23 starts this season, Blake Snell only pitched into the 7th inning 3 times. He's never going to be considered that horse of the rotation that will eat innings, because of the lack of command. 

The final concern is whether Blake Snell has figured it out. Snell definitely had a rough adjustment period after being traded from Tampa Bay to San Diego, coming off the 2020 World Series changing move by Rays manager Kevin Cash to pull Snell when it looked like he had game 6 on ice. In his 8 year career, Snell has looked like a solid #3 starter in 5 of those years, a below-average pitcher in one season, and easily the best pitcher on the planet in 2018 and 2023. There's risk involved about what kind of player Seattle would get.

The opportunity and cost of bringing Snell home

Now that you know more about the player, let's talk turkey. What are the implications of signing the soon-to-be Cy Young winner? Spotrac projects Blake Snell to sign a 5-year deal for around $23.4 million in average annual value. That seems very reasonable if not a little shy of what I think he'll get. There are rumors flying all over the place that Snell is interested in coming home, but I don't think it's realistic to expect a major hometown discount, if we get close, he's probably wearing teal. 

Projected contract signing: 6 years/$144 million ($24 AAV)

With Seattle adding a third pitcher making over $20 AAV, I'm not naive enough to think Seattle will also spend big on a free-agent bat. That doesn't mean the Mariners can't use Snell to get an impact bat. It's been years to almost a decade since the likes of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz signed in Seattle, and they've come up empty every year since. Whether it's finance, leadership, the Pacific Northwest outpost, or the marine layer, the Mariners have not been able to bring a star bat, or even a moderately impactful bat to Seattle. Maybe it's time for Dipoto to pivot, sign star pitchers like Blake Snell, and then go trade for the star bats that you so covet.

With Snell added, the Mariners boast not just the best rotation in the American League, but arguably the deepest. This opens the door to potentially trading one of the talented young pitchers, specifically one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. While it would be painful to lose one of those talented pitchers, the opportunity to trade from a massive strength to help add real help to the offense could create a massive one-two punch to win this offseason.

While I'd love a massive free agent bat, I strongly feel that Seattle could get closer to a World Series with the signing of an ace like Blake and the acquisition of a franchise-changing hitter. Could you imagine the vibes in Seattle if the Mariners bring home Blake Snell and trade for a star like Randy Arozarena?

Snell wants Seattle, the fans want Seattle. What are we doing here?

Bring him home!