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Mariners Monday morning mailbag: Trades, the offense, and the All-Star break
The All-Star break is here, and we look at answering some Mariners' questions surrounding the offense and the trade deadline
Can you believe we have made it to All-Star Week already? It’s been an eventful week for the Mariners, both good and bad. Despite a 52-46 record and holding first place by a game, their grip on the AL West is in danger, and the concerns over the offense continue to ring louder and louder. On the positive side, it appears that Seattle had a strong night last night at the MLB Draft, continuing to strengthen an already highly-rated farm system.
In our first Monday morning mailbag post of the season, the farm system and what the Mariners will do with their prospects dominated the questions asked on social media. So, without further ado, let’s dive into your questions.
Do you think Jerry and Co will actually swing a trade for a big bat or do you think they will make a couple minor trades that just tinker with the lineup a little?
Depends on what you consider to be a “big bat”. Luis Robert has the potential to be a true star in the game, but injuries and inconsistencies do not make him a slam-dunk trade target. When you factor in the reports that the Chicago White Sox are looking for a Juan Soto-esque level of compensation, Robert doesn't seem realistic for a team that, frankly, needs more than just Robert to go deep in October.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the biggest name on the market for this year's deadline and all the smoke indicates that Toronto wants to hold on to him until at least the winter. All it takes is a great offer though, to make arguably the most disappointing team in baseball consider jump-starting their rebuild.
With this year's Wild Card chase so bunched up in both leagues, it's going to be really difficult to find a star bat. Seattle could look to division rival Oakland and Brent Rooker. He'd bring firepower to the lineup, but he's mostly a DH at this point. Recognizable names such as Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Jesse Winker are the most likely bigger names to be traded. This is not the year for going all in at the deadline for stars.
Look for Jerry and company to beef up the lineup by acquiring one of the bats noted above, and then two or three veterans that could come in and help get this lineup closer to the middle of the pack in hitting rather than flirting with dead last. That could be the difference in winning the AL West, or missing the playoffs again.
Ty France, Cade, Clase, and a draft pick for next year for Ryan McMahon?
Talk about upgrading your infield, this mailbag question has the Seattle Mariners trading for two all-stars that we'll be watching on Tuesday night. Let's take a look at how realistic these trades are.
Ryan McMahon is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise horrific 33-63 season in Colorado. The Rox’s 3rd baseman has been a stud with the glove while having a major breakthrough as a hitter in his 7th season. McMahon has posted a 115 OPS+ and a 2.8 WAR in 94 games. With 21 doubles and 14 home runs, McMahon’s .797 OPS is 63 points higher than the best Mariner (Raleigh at .734).
McMahon being in the middle of one of the best contracts in all of baseball (6yr/$70) makes him unlikely to be traded, even if the Rockies are horrible. They're going to have to be blown away, and I just don't see it with this trade proposal.
While Ty France would be an upgrade over Elehuris Montero at 1st base, France is more likely to be replaced at season's end, than be a potential headliner in a trade for an all-star with three plus seasons of control.
Cade Marlowe has been a disappointment in the minors this year, or else he'd already been given a chance to help this putrid offense by now. Jonatan Clase is an intriguing prospect who has not been given enough of a runway to see if he can use his speed to impact a big league club, but he's still a top 10 prospect in most farms. Trading a draft pick is complicated and difficult, so it's hard to gauge that value in baseball.
If you're trading for McMahon, the Rockies are going to ask for Harry Ford or Cole Young. Are you comfortable trading one of them for a guy with McMahon's track record and the Coors Field elephant in the room? I'm not.
I'd offer the Rockies Clase, Tyler Locklear, and Jeter Martinez. That's 3 top 15 prospects without touching my premium prospects. I'm just not sure Colorado will take that deal right now.
Ford, Evans, and Canzone and Young for Vlad jr.?
Where the previous trade felt a little too light, this one is close, but may be just a little too much for the Mariners to stomach.
Vladdy Jr. Is having a phenomenal season for the disappointing Toronto Blue Jays, and it feels as though the clock is ticking on his impending 2025 free agency. The Blue Jays have squandered his early years, and this year feels like the end of their “run” if you want to call it that.
With the rest of this season and all of next year under contract, his value to Toronto will never be higher, but are they willing to punt on this season and next? It'll take a strong package to obtain the face of MLB the Show, and the Mariners could conceivably accommodate.
The Blue Jays have a glaring hole in both their farm and the major league level at the catching position in 2025. There may not be a better match than Harry Ford and the Blue Jays. You'd have to think he'd be a part of any package. This is a great start, although painful as a Harry Ford believer.
Logan Evans has been absolutely filthy this season down in AA Arkansas. He'd be a top 100 prospect heading into next season. Dom Canzone has been a pretty big disappointment this season and is dealing with injuries, but does offer some intrigue.
For me, personally, trading both Ford and Cole Young is where the price gets too high. A year and a half of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is worth three top 10 prospects on a loaded farm, but I'm not giving up two top four prospects for Vladdy, especially when I'm throwing in Evans, who's been arguably the best pitcher in all of minor league baseball this year.
I'd offer Toronto Harry Ford or Cole Young, Logan Evans, and Tyler Locklear for Guerrero, but would not go any higher. Maybe if I thought this team was one move away from being the American League favorite, but does just adding Vladdy alone make you feel that way? It doesn't for me.