Mariners Free Agent Target: Adam Duvall as a power bat

Mariners could look to add to their outfield depth with one of the more underrated power hitters in the free agent market in Adam Duvall
Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox / Winslow Townson/GettyImages
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The Mariners will most likely at least reach out to the bigger name free agent bats like Cody Bellinger, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Shohei Ohtani, and hopefully will be able to lure one of them to the Northwest. They will also explore the trade market as there will be a huge demand for their young, controllable pitching. The Mariners need to acquire a couple of high-end bats this offseason, that needs to be priority number 1. But rounding out the depths of the roster, should not be overlooked. You can't give guys like Caballero, Haggerty, and to a lesser extent Mike Ford and Dominic Canzone, a significant number of at-bats like they had. I really like Adam Duvall, his power and defense, and the way that he fits on this current roster construction.

Duvall spent 2023 in Boston and had a really solid season, spending 61 games in center field and 33 games in the corner. He slashed .247/.303/531 with 21 home runs. That was good for a very impressive 116 wRC+ and a 1.9 fWAR. He struck out quite a bit at 31% but that is pretty much his career norm, while his walk percentage was right in line with his career numbers at 6.2%.

At first glance, his walk rates and strikeout rates are sort of alarming, while his fWAR and wRC+ show that he's a good player, but just how good has he been? From 2019 to 2023, he ran an average slugging percentage of .530, which puts him in the top 40 in all of baseball during that time! During that time, he is also hitting a home run every 13.45 at-bats. That's a 37-home run pace with 500 at-bats. Those are elite power and slugging numbers.

Defensively, Adam Duvall is a former gold glove right fielder. This sometimes doesn't always tell the full story, as Geno wasn't even nominated for the gold glove this year, when we all know he was just as good or better than the guys that got nominated. But Duvall is a very capable and probably slightly above-average corner outfield defender, one that can play centerfield if needed. He isn't an elite defender in centerfield like Julio, but he can cover there if needed.

What would Duvall's role be on this Mariners team?

Since 2019, Duvall has only played more than 100 games once. I think he would fill in really nicely as a 4th outfielder or rotational DH. He hasn't played first base since 2018, but he is athletic enough to make a spot start if needed. As I have said in all of my articles this offseason, hopefully, they acquire 2 outfield bats that are pretty well above league average. One to play in the corner and one to DH. Then Duvall becomes your 4th outfielder and can split time at DH as well. If you got a 500 slugging percentage and 20 home runs from your 4th outfielder and rotational DH that gets 300-350 at-bats, that is a lot of added depth to this lineup and roster, that is much needed.

What kind of contract would it take?

Spotrac gives his estimated market value at $5.5 million. Now, given his age of 35 years old, he is most certainly getting a 1-year deal. If I were the Mariners, I would feel comfortable in that $5-$7-million-dollar range, similar to the 1-year and $7 million that they gave AJ Pollock. i think this would be a wise investment for the Mariners to secure some valuable depth and power to a lineup lacking real proven 4th outfield or rotational outfielders.