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Mariners first quarter grades: A wild assortment of success and failure
The First Quarter of the season has been completed, so let's take a look at the four main aspects of the Mariners so far and how they grade out
It's been a wierd season so far for the Mariners. After the rough start, I think most fans are happy about where the team is at right now, record wise. We may not feel warm and fuzzy about how the team is performing overall, but we have to be happy with the fact that they're not just above .500, but sitting atop the AL West.
This isn't going to be a team grade, but we will probably still have a rough one at the end of the article after looking through the different parts of the team. The quarter mark is a good one, to me at least, for taking stock of how the team is doing up to that point. You can make an argument to do it more often, say every 20 games or so, but it's a long season, and things change quickly.
Let's take a look at the four major aspects of the team, and how they all grade out throughout the first quarter of the season. The infield, outfield, starting rotation, and the bullpen. Let's start off with the infield, the one that has seen the most change, and not just since the end of 2023, but since the start of 2024.
Mariners Infield: 2024 1st Quarter Grade: D+
There's been a lot of bad in the infield so far for the Mariners in 2024. Jorge Polanco is one of the worst hitting second baseman in baseball so far. He was leading the league in strikeouts before he went down with a hamstring injury. He did have a nice walk rate, but a BA under .200 and a SLG just barely above .300 is not going to cut it.
While we thought big things were in store for Ty France, April was not kind to him, nor was he showing actual improvement. His defense still isn't great at first base, and the slash line wasn't enough to give fans hope of seeing him succeed, leading to a lot of curiousity about if France would be replaced by a prospect like Tyler Locklear, or if the Mariners would look to trade for someone. He's hit two homers recently, but needs to keep improving if he wants to keep his job.
JP Crawford has been one of the bigger disappointments on the team, as fans hoped 2023 wasn't just a fluke. Before being injured, Crawford was slashing just .198/.296/.302. Hopefully his time off will help him get right, and we will see a return to form.
Luis Urias has been awful. He's hitting .154 with an exit velo of 84.7 mph, which is 3.7 mph below league average. I have no patience here, especially with Josh Rojas absolutely crushing it this year. He's the saving grace of the infield, holding them up with his .330/.395/.482 slash line. He will come back down to earth a bit, but is hitting the ball harder than ever before and is the saving grace of the Mariners lineup.
Let's throw Garver in here as another hitter who seems lost. Too many of these guys have batting averages that start with a 1, and Garver looks like Joey Gallo at the plate. Five homers, six doubles, and 10 singles with a K rate of 32.9%. Even Raleigh, with his .218 batting average, is doing enough damage with having 10 homers and a walk rate of 10.7%, giving good offensive value with a 120 OPS+. It's an ugly infield overall, and needs to get better for the Mariners to succeed.
Mariners Outfield: 2024 1st Quarter Grade: C-
Let's start off with the biggest problem in the outfield. Mitch Haniger. If you are going to be a bad defender, then you at least need to produce at the plate. In Haniger's case, he needs to produce a lot at the plate, because he doesn't belong in a major league outfield, and is the worst defender on the team. I like Haniger, but you can't have a 90 OPS+ and be on pace for a -2.5 dWAR.
Canzone was doing well enough before his injury, finding enough contact and power to justify the lower BA. If he can keep up his exit velo with it at 90+, he's going to help the Mariners offense and defense, providing all around value. The same goes for Luke Raley, who has been on fire lately. The big man has three homers and three steals, and is now hitting .276/.315/.425. If he and Canzone can keep it up, the Mariners outfield all of a sudden looks a lot better.
Then, there is Julio. It's hard to grade him, because the .266/.317 looks fine, but there is no power. He has just two homers and five doubles, and the Mariners need more from their star CF. It seems like he is starting to come around, as he's had more XBH lately, and the hard hit rate and exit velo are both climbing.
Let's throw Dylan Moore in here as well, even if he has been the fill-in for Crawford. Already with six steals, Moore is hitting as he has throughout his career with an OPS of around 700. With ten extra base hits and a decent walk rate, Moore gives the Mariners the perfect UTIL man to move around, and let's hope he is able to succeed in that role.
Mariners Starting Rotation: 2024 1st Quarter Grade: A-
This is the highlight of the season so far for the Mariners. If Bryan Woo had been able to stay healthy and start with the big league club, this would likely be an A, especially if he pitches like he did in his two starts so far this season. Emerson Hancock got lit up while he was here, and despite some starts that looked good, his underlying numbers were anything but, and it made sense to send him down.
Bryce Miller has gone ahead and turned the Mariners' big three into a big four, showing that he is a force to be reckoned with after learning the splitter. In 2023, lefties hit .303/.358/.558 off of Miller. In 2024, that number has gone to .133/.220/.333. He didn't have a great start against the Orioles, but Miller has more than nearly anyone could've expected.
Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert have been the three headed monster we all wanted, with Castillo really finding his groove as of late. With his most recent outing against the Orioles, Castillo has now thrown seven straight outings going 6+ innings while allowing two runs or less. If that's the Castillo we are going to see for stretches this season, it's going to be an incredibly fun year.
The only reason we didn't go with an A here were because of some of the rough starts that we saw early, and the failures from Emerson Hancock. A- from your starting staff, especially with the high expectations, is gladly taken every day of the week.
Mariners Bullpen: 2024 1st Quarter Grade: B+
The bullpen, despite all the injuries that we have seen there, has been pretty darn good. Looking at all the subtractions that we have seen since the finish of 2023, you would think that the team would be struggling a bit. Isaiah Campbell, Justin Topa, Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, and Tayler Saucedo have all missed time, not pitched at all, or are no longer on the team.
You would think that means it's been a rough go, right?
Instead, the Mariners have the 10th best bullpen ERA in baseball at the time of this writing. If I would've written this exactly at the quarter mark, then it would've been a stronger number, as the Mariners had been sitting around 6th or 7th at that point in time.
Munoz has been a stud, and the core guys that the Mariners throw (Munoz, Thornton, Speier, Stanek, Saucedo, Bolton, and Voth) have a 3.04 ERA, which would be the 3rd best mark in baseball. Brash is out for the year, but Saucedo should be back soon, and Santos was reported to be playing full strength catch from flat ground up to 90 feet recently. So help and improvements could be on the way.
Overall: I think we have to give the Mariners a B- for the first quarter of the season. There is a lot that needs to be fixed with the team, but there are also a lot of talented players on this team. If they can figure it out, it's going to make for a dangerous team because of the ceiling of this pitching staff.