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How will the Mariners do in 2024? Fans and Sodo Mojo predict what will happen this year
The season is nearly upon us, so let's look at some Mariners' season projections. It won't just be the folks at Sodo Mojo, but from some of the fans as well.
We've done this over the last couple of years, and it's a fun way to get a look at what some of the staff here at Sodo Mojo are thinking. We can make all the predictions, guesses and estimates, and prognostications that we want, but in the end there is only one (explanded) prediction that truly matters. What will the Mariners record be at the end of the season, and when does their season end?
We ended up with eight people here at Sodo preenting their predictions for what they think that the Mariners are going to do this season. Not only that, but everyone threw in a little blurb about how they think the Mariners are going to do, maybe some highlights of how they get there, and what the inevitable downfall is for the team in 2024.
It's more than that, though. We asked you, dear reader, what your thoughts were as well. The results were quite positive, which is a surprise when you think about the negativity that can be Mariners Twitter/X.
We’re gonna have some predictions later in the week, and maybe we will grab some of here as well for the article. How many wins do you think the Mariners end up with?
— SoDo Mojo (@SodoMojoFS) March 25, 2024
I was pleasantly surprised to see that 87.4% of you thought that the Mariners would have 86 or more wins on the season. 86 is that window where they are going to be in playoff/Wild Card range at the end of the year. Even the 42.6% that picked 91 or more are essentially saying that this is a legit playoff team.
After seeing that, we decided to ask you for your predictions on the season. We grabbed a couple of them to put in this article, and I've interspersed them throughout. We start with the worst record predictions and work our way up. How do the collective we feel about the season? Let's get to it.
The 88-74 crew... and a lot of Wild Card berths
Aidan Smith: 88-74: Wild Card
Mariners clinch a Wild Card Berth and win their 1st playoff game since Ichiro's historic rookie season. Mitch Garver finally plays more than 100 games and hits 25 homers, while Julio finishes top 3 in AL MVP voting. Mitch Haniger struggles to stay on the field, resulting in 400+ plate appearances from Dominic Canzone.
On the pitching side, Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert both make the AL All Star team, but Luis Castillo regresses a bit in his age 31 season. The Mariners pitching staff gets bit by the injury bug, and the front office is forced to trade Jonatan Clase and Harry Ford to replenish the roster with much-needed starting pitching depth. After winning exactly 54% of their games in 2024, Jerry finally convinces John Stanton to spend some money at the Winter Meetings.
Christine Navarro: 88-74: Wild Card
I compared the Mariners’ hitters and pitchers in Spring Training against the other teams in the AL West. The Mariners did well with their batting averages. Our starting pitchers have not performed thus far as well as the other teams nor matched their statistics from 2023. While I anticipate that the Mariners will have a winning record at the end of the season, I hope that the pitchers will not have a slow start. If our principal players are healthy, I predict that we could win 88 and lose 72 as the team did last year. Go Ms!
Levi Coovert: 88-74: #5 Seed (Wild Card)
Second place in the AL West, finishing behind the Astros is where the Mariners end up in 2024. They match up against the Orioles in the first round of the playoffs, sweeping them with Castillo and Kirby on the mound. They move on to play the #1 seeded Yankees in the ALDS. Unfortunately, the Mariners lost game 5 as Soto and Judge got the best of the Mariners. The future looks bright though, and fans are positive once again as Julio finishes top-3 in MVP voting and four Mariners make the All-Star game.
Pushing towards 90 wins... and our first missed playoff prediction
89-73, miss by one… gutted by injuries post all star break.
— Warm Coors Light (@CoorsWarm) March 27, 2024
89-73
— John Kinsella (@kin34999130) March 26, 2024
Makes it to ALCS. Loses to TB
Jeff Nooney: 89-73: Wild Card
I think the Mariners are going to be competitive in 2024, coming in second in the AL West, earning a wild card spot. 89-73 gets it done, with Houston winning the division. The Team MVP is going to be Julio, who completes the first 40/40 season in club history. With the Cole injury, I think Luis Castillo wins the AL Cy Young award, and has the ERA title. As for the playoffs, I think they make it to the ALCS, and face those same Astros, and beat them in 6 games, earning their first World Series trip. They lose in 6 to the Dodgers, tho.
Nic Cunningham: 90-72: 2nd in AL West: Wild Card
The Seattle Mariners failed to make a big splash this offseason and made multiple cost-cutting moves such as trading away Eugenio Suarez for Seby Zavala and Carlos Vargas. However, they did succeed in making some small additions that left this year’s lineup better than last year’s iteration. Mitch Garver’s bat will instantly provide some much-needed run production, and Jorge Polanco is an above-average hitter at second base.
Seattle still boasts an elite pitching staff, anchored by a big three of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. The Mariners added to their bullpen with the acquisitions of Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek. They had the opportunity to go after Blake Snell to build an even more dominant rotation, perhaps trading one of Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, or Bryan Woo for a bat, but chose to stand pat instead.
While the lineup is much different than last season’s, it should be slightly more productive. Combined with arguably the best starting pitching rotation in the MLB and a strong bullpen, this Mariners team looks poised to compete with the Astros for the AL West title.
Still, if the front office was given the budget they expected, this team could have been even better. While I expect Seattle to make the playoffs, fans will notice the lack of big-time acquisitions the team made throughout the season. The make the playoffs after finishing second in the AL West, but end up losing in the ALDS.
Ryne DeGroot: 92-70: Win the AL West
In 2024, the Seattle Mariners will win the AL West with a 92-70 record. Mitch Haniger will win Comeback Player of the Year in the AL. The Mariners pitching staff will have 3 SP in the top 10 of the Cy Young vote with one of them winning the award. All of this will cumulate with the Marienrs as the AL representative in the World Series.
93 wins
— Mark Patient (@MarkPatient) March 26, 2024
They play ALCS Game 6
Chris O'Day: 93-69: Win the AL West
It's so easy to go through this with Rose-Colored glasses on, predicting the best and wanting to be as positive as possible. Part of it is homerism, but it's also just a fun and enjoyable way to do it. I'm going to lean positive on it. Brash comes back in Mid-April. Bryan Woo comes back at the end of April. Gregory Santos comes back in Mid-May after they take their time with his shoulder. The Mariners rotation shines to stat the year, and they are 17-13 at the end of the month.
They play okay in May and June, but it's nothing special. They actually find themselves well behind the Astros at the All-Star Break, as they are 53-45, but the Astros are 57-39. They start picking up steam that first week after the break, and send off some prospects for a relatively big-name hitter. Is it Nolan Arenado? Who knows, but they make a move to show that they are serious contenders.
A red-hot August sees them not only catch, but pass the Astros. They sit at 76-60 heading into September with a 2-game lead, and the Rangers playing just as well sitting only 3 games back. The Mariners never let off the gas, and finish out the month 17-9 to go 93-69, winning the division by 2 games over the Rangers, who actually played better than the Mariners after the break, but early struggles held them back from the division title.
The Mariners earn the 2-seed, and a first round bye. They end up playing the Twins (AL Central winners and #3 seed), taking them out in 4 games. They move on to face the Astros, because of course they do. No repeat of 2022 though, and the Mariners take them out in 6. They make their first ever World Series, but run into the Braves. It ends up being a fantastic and amazing season, the Mariners get a couple of World Series games in Seattle, but lose in 6 to the juggernaut Atlanta team.
94 wins which wins the AL West 🏆
— Mr Getit (@Mr_Getit29) March 26, 2024
Chris O'Bryant: 94-68: Win the AL West
Let's do some quick hits here. Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, and Cal Raleigh all make the All-Star Game. Both Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver hit 30+ homers. Julio gets to the rarifed air of a 40/40 season. Emerson Hancock ends up finishing the season in the rotation. Lastly, two of the Mariners top 10 prospects are traded for an impact player at the deadline.
Let's hope that the Mariners push for 90+ wins this season. Go Mariners!