How Mariners Julio Rodriguez contract set the stage for Bobby Witt Jr. and Royals

It wasn't that long ago that the Mariners inked Julio Rodriguez to an extension. This wasn't just your run-of-the-mill extension, either. It was a game-changing one, and one that pushes for the largest contract handed out in North American sports history if it plays out to its potential. It helped set a new wave of potential upcoming contracts, and the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr are the latest to follow in their path.

We've seen these in the past, and the one that I remember kicking this into a different atmosphere was when the Rays signed Evan Longoria to an extension. It has happened multiple times since then, but when the Mariners signed Julio to a potential 18YR/$470M contract, it changed the game.

Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals took a page out of the Mariners deal with Julio Rodriguez

It was an incredibly smart move by the Royals to get him locked up long-term. As the Mariners did with Julio Rodriguez, it gives you a transcendent and foundational piece to build around, helping to shape the next decade of your team. It also locks them up for likely their entire career, giving you the incredible opportunity to keep a potential HOF player on your team until they retire.

Let's compare the contracts a bit to see what's different and what is the same between two of baseball's burgeoning superstars.

Julio Rodriguez

This one has been out for a lot longer, so we know all the aspects of the deal. I wanted to list Julio's first since it gives you an idea of everything that Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals were able to look at, contemplate, and work towards implementing in their negotiations. All of this is from the article Sodo Mojo had back when it came out, but it's good to see it once again.

Base Deal – 8 YR for $120 million, starting at signing in 2022 going through 2029. Mariners have a club option after 2028, with MVP voting variables.
The option could be for eight or ten years, between $200-$350 million more. The minimum option pickup by Mariners would be for 8 YR for $200 million
If the Mariners decline, it becomes a player option for 5 YR and $90 million. It's unlikely he turns it down if the team doesn't exercise their club option, as you would have to think they only turn it down if he massively underperforms,
INCENTIVES:
No MVP Votes: Club option is 8-200.
Top Ten MVP 2-3 times: It goes to 8-240.
Top Ten MVP 4 times: is 8-260.
MVP award + 1 top 5 OR 3 top fives: 8-280.
Two MVPs OR four top fives:10-350.
The possible outcome? Julio is signed for 18 YR at $470 million

There are player option escalators in there too, but those are quite unlikely to ever be acted upon. The Mariners have the upper hand in this deal. If they want to keep Julio around, they have all the control in keeping him through 2039. He could hold out or something of that nature, but the Mariners have the decision and control on keeping him. It's also worth noting, again, that this deal is one of the largest ever seen up to the point of it's signing in the history of sports.

Bobby Witt Jr.

11YR/288.7M is the headliner of this one. There is an added 3YR/$89M club option at the end of the deal, pushing it to a potential 14YR/$377M ceiling. It starts slow, but still agressive, through his arb years, and will really jump in 2028 when it hits $30M. The next six years are all at $35M, although the stretch from 2031-2034 are all $35M player options, which is a really interesting stipulation in his contract.

That player option angle gives him a chance to re-negotiate, or even leave, if the baseball contract landscape has changed by the end of the decade. Reports currently have Witt as rumored to want to spend his career in KC (hence the contract) and you would have to hope that remains the case throughout the duration of the deal.

He has also been given a no-trade clause with a signing bonus of $7,777,777, done so because of his number itself being #7, making for a fun wrinkle and detail in the deal. 2024 is going to be his age-24 season, meaning that his outs would essentially be heading into his age-31 season, his age-35 season, and the contract would end after his age-37 season, a very reasonable age to see a player retire, or come back on a one-year retirement trip season.