How Mariners Julio Rodriguez contract set the stage for Bobby Witt Jr. and Royals

It wasn't that long ago that the Mariners inked Julio Rodriguez to an extension. This wasn't just your run-of-the-mill extension, either. It was a game-changing one, and one that pushes for the largest contract handed out in North American sports history if it plays out to its potential. It helped set a new wave of potential upcoming contracts, and the Royals and Bobby Witt Jr are the latest to follow in their path.

We've seen these in the past, and the one that I remember kicking this into a different atmosphere was when the Rays signed Evan Longoria to an extension. It has happened multiple times since then, but when the Mariners signed Julio to a potential 18YR/$470M contract, it changed the game.

Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals took a page out of the Mariners deal with Julio Rodriguez

It was an incredibly smart move by the Royals to get him locked up long-term. As the Mariners did with Julio Rodriguez, it gives you a transcendent and foundational piece to build around, helping to shape the next decade of your team. It also locks them up for likely their entire career, giving you the incredible opportunity to keep a potential HOF player on your team until they retire.

Let's compare the contracts a bit to see what's different and what is the same between two of baseball's burgeoning superstars.

Julio Rodriguez

This one has been out for a lot longer, so we know all the aspects of the deal. I wanted to list Julio's first since it gives you an idea of everything that Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals were able to look at, contemplate, and work towards implementing in their negotiations. All of this is from the article Sodo Mojo had back when it came out, but it's good to see it once again.

Base Deal – 8 YR for $120 million, starting at signing in 2022 going through 2029. Mariners have a club option after 2028, with MVP voting variables.
The option could be for eight or ten years, between $200-$350 million more. The minimum option pickup by Mariners would be for 8 YR for $200 million
If the Mariners decline, it becomes a player option for 5 YR and $90 million. It's unlikely he turns it down if the team doesn't exercise their club option, as you would have to think they only turn it down if he massively underperforms,
INCENTIVES:
No MVP Votes: Club option is 8-200.
Top Ten MVP 2-3 times: It goes to 8-240.
Top Ten MVP 4 times: is 8-260.
MVP award + 1 top 5 OR 3 top fives: 8-280.
Two MVPs OR four top fives:10-350.
The possible outcome? Julio is signed for 18 YR at $470 million

There are player option escalators in there too, but those are quite unlikely to ever be acted upon. The Mariners have the upper hand in this deal. If they want to keep Julio around, they have all the control in keeping him through 2039. He could hold out or something of that nature, but the Mariners have the decision and control on keeping him. It's also worth noting, again, that this deal is one of the largest ever seen up to the point of it's signing in the history of sports.

Final thoughts on Julio's contract and Witt's contract

What really stands out to me, and I don't know if it is a pessimism outlook or a realism outlook, is the player option that Bobby Witt Jr holds. If the Royals are terrible, or he has turned into the best player in baseball and want's a new and larger deal, he is free to leave in 2031 after just 7 seasons of the deal.

You could imagine that in this scenario, it would be tempting, and hopefully a restructure would at least happen to keep him there. Otherwise, with how incoming money and salaries could grow, it would be easy for a big market team to try and "buy" him away from Kansas City.

Julio and the Mariners don't have that worry. The Mariners have a handful of different club options that they could implement, and if they don't want to, there is still a player option that he could exercise if he for some reason forgets how to play baseball. However, as mentioned above, if the Mariners want Julio, he is in Seattle through the end of NEXT decade.

With Witt, he could leave after this one. That's a 10-year difference just about, and the biggest difference between the two deals. The other piece that I want to point out is that if Witt does stick around through his player option of 2034, he will have made more annually than Julio up to that point, even with Julio's incentives hitting.

Lastly, I find it very interesting that Witt's player option and Julio's top escalator both sit at $35M annually, although Witt's is a 4YR/$140M and Julio is at 10YR/$350M. The Royals and Bobby Witt Jr used the Mariners' contract with Julio Rodriguez as a blueprint and foundational building block for their future, and it could be the smartest move they've made in a long time.