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Grading the Mariners last 5 first round draft picks
The Mariners have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. What grade would you give the Mariners first round picks from the past five years?
This weekend marks one of the most important events of the season for the Seattle Mariners, the draft. The draft is where the Mariners can get better, even if we will not see that player in T-Mobile Park for a few years. There has not been a long line of offensive superstars wanting to don a Mariners jersey, and even if there were, i doubt ownership would spend that money. But the draft? That is where Jerry Dipoto and the rest of the front office make this team a contender.
If you look at the Mariners' current roster, most of the players are "homegrown", meaning the Mariners either signed them as an international free agent or drafted them. The others? They were traded for, using prospects selected in the draft or international free agents. The international free agency signing period happens in the offseason, while the draft now kicks off All-Star weekend. The draft starts at 4:00 PM PST this Sunday, July 14, and goes through July 16th.
While the Mariners had three first round picks last year, they have just one this year. The Mariners hold the 15th overall pick in this year's first round, and the 55th overall pick that will come in the second round. In the past, the Mariners valued high school bats such as Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, Cole Young and others. They also took college arms in three consecutive years when they selected Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock from 2018-2020.
Speculation as to who the Mariners will draft this year is all over the place. Earlier this month, Mariners Scouting Director Scott Hunter said that high school pitchers could be in play. The Mariners have not selected a high school pitcher in the first round since they drafted Taijuan Walker back in 2010.
But for today, we are going to take a look back at the last 5 years worth of first round picks and give them a grade. Some grades maybe obvious, some may be a surprise. Most of these picks have yet to debut with the Mariners, but it is not just production that is going to be graded. WHo else was available at the time of the pick will be taken into account, as well as current prospect rankings.
2019 First round pick: George Kirby, RHP (Elon University), 20th overall pick
I think we all know the grade I am going to give this pick, it's not rocket science. This pick definitely gets an A+. Kirby has been one of the most consistent front-line starters in all of baseball throughout his Mariners career. George is in his third season in the Majors and has already been an All-Star once (Back in 2023). He has made 75 starts in his career, and has posted a 3.37 ERA (3.11 FIP) and hs hearned 7.1 bWAR. George is still just 26 years old, and under club control through the 2028 season.
While most pitchers today are focused on their "stuff", George has really excelled on his command. His pitches are still nasty, don't get me wrong, but George really excels on limiting his walks. In 2023, George led the league in walks per 9 innings with 0.9. He walked less than one batter per 9 innings, that is insane to me. So far in 2024, He has the same BB/9 with 0.9.
George Kirby, Painted 96mph Sinker. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/PntblhjTCV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2024
In this draft, the Mariners had the 20th overall pick where they selected George Kirby. The only player who has an All-Star appearance who was selected after Kirby is Gunnar Henderson. While it would be nice for the Mariners to have Henderson in their lineup, I am happy with the pick the Mariners made. Not to mention, if these guys were re-drafted, the Mariners would not have either Kirby or Henderson.
Like I said above, I give this pick an absolute A+.
2020 First round pick: Emerson Hancock, RHP (University of Georgia), 6th overall pick
Emerson Hancock came with a lot of hype behind him. That happens when you're the sixth overall pick, but he always had an uphill climb ahead of him. 2020 was a chaotic year, and one that did not have Minor League Baseball. His development was slow out of the gate, and none of that is his fault. Even though he started behind, Hancock made his Major League debut with the Mariners in 2023, before a shoulder injury ended his 2023 campaign.
This year, Hancock started the year in the rotation for the Mariners filling in for injured starter Bryan Woo. Hancock has been a bit inconsistent in his short career. He has pitched to a 4.71 ERA (5.14 FIP) in 57.1 career innings. That is a small sample size for sure, and Hancock still has a long career ahead of him. In June of 2024, he won the Pitcher of the Month award for the PCL in AAA and has been called up to make a spot start here and there for Bryan Woo.
The 2020 Draft was a weird one. Only four players that were drafted in 2020 have been an All-Star, and the Mariners could have drafted all four of them. Garrett Crochet (CWS 10th overall), Jordan Westburg (BAL 30th overall), Spencer Strider (ATL 126th overall), and Bryce Elder (ATL 156th overall) are the players the Mariners could have taken. Can you imagine Spencer Strider pitching for the Mariners? In this rotation? My goodness.
Emerson Hancock, Dirty 86mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/npMEOxst9w
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024
Overall, Hancock still has alot to prove. He has been valuable for the Mariners, and he still has some serious potential. For now, I will give this selection a solid B. The book is still open on Emerson Hancock, and expectations are still high for the former 6th overall pick.
2021 First round pick: Harry Ford, C (High School, GA), 12th overall pick
After selecting college level pitchers in the first round three years in a row, the Mariners selected high school catcher Harry Ford with the 12th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Ford currently is the second ranked prospect and 23rd overall ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He is currently in AA Arkansas, playing in his age 21 season.
While Ford may not have made his Major League debut quite yet, He was the lone bright spot in the World Baseball Classic for Great Britain in 2023. He opened a lot of eyes with his plate discipline so far through the minors, which translates to his high on base percentage (.407) in his minor league career.
In 2021, @Mariners drafted #MLBbro Harry Ford with the 12th overall pick of the MLB amateur draft. Ford is a hard-hitting catcher whose skill set has been likened to that of former Houston Astros legend and Baseball Hall of Famer, Craig Biggio.
— MLBbro.com (@MLBbrodotcom) March 12, 2023
He’s https://t.co/SZ6wxz0AcD… pic.twitter.com/IESNgkTo2A
Ford's value may not come from him in a Mariners uniform. The Mariners are currently in first place but have glaring holes in their lineup, and Ford may be traded to bring in Major League talent. There are only a handful of teams who have their catcher for the future, but Ford has recently been playing games in left field, showcasing that he is more than just a catcher. If the Mariners hang onto him, he would be a great value to the team's bench. Remember Austin Nola? He played all over the diamond, but was also great behind the plate.
Only two All-Stars are from this draft class, both Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres and Mason Miller of the Oakland Athletics are first time All-Star's this year. But with what we have seen from Ford already, I think the Mariners did very well with selecting him with the 12th pick, and I will give this pick an A.
2022 First round pick: Cole Young, SS (High School, PA), 21st overall pick
Just like when the Mariners took Harry Ford in the first round in 2021, the Mariners selected another high school bat when they took Cole Young with the 21st overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft. Young was selected because of his advanced hitting skills, which he has shown so far in the minor leagues.
Cole Young is ranked as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline, just one spot ahead of Harry Ford (23). Young, like Ford, has played the entire season in AA Arkansas. His slash line is impressive, especially when you consider the position he plays. He is hitting .262/.352/.391/.743 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases. He walks at almost the same rate as he strikes out (136 walks to 152 strikeouts) in his career.
he is beauty, he is grace, he is cole young 😌 #FuturesGame pic.twitter.com/hirJdNE0vI
— Mariners Player Development (@MsPlayerDev) July 13, 2024
Like I mentoned with Harry Ford, Young's value may not come with the Mariners. As the Mariners look to make a push for the playoffs, prospects like Young, Ford and others will be highly coveted by other teams. We have seen time and time again that not all prospects pan out at the Major League level, and sometimes a player's value is at its highest before the player makes his debut.
I like what Young brings to the table. He can play both second base and shortstop, and can be a dynamic leadoff type hitter. There is not much to dislike about him, and with all that being said, I will again give the Mariners a solid A grade for this pick.
2023 First round picks: Colt Emerson, SS (High School, OH), 22nd overall pick; Jonny Farmelo, OF (High School, VA), 29th overall pick; Tai Peete, SS (High School, GA), 30th overall pick
For the first time since 2009, the Mariners had three first round picks last season. After selecting these three high school bats, the Mariners have taken five high school bats in a row in the first round of the draft. Part of the risk of drafting high school players is that most of them have already committed to a university, so the team has to convince the player to give up college and sign with them. The Mariners were able to sign all 3 this year.
Colt Emerson was the first player selected out of this trio. Emerson has dealt with some injuries this season, but he has played really well when he has been on the field. Emerson has the arm to stick at shortstop or even third base, where he played for Team USA. Emerson currently ranks 43rd overall on MLB Pipeline, but ranks 13th overall on Baseball America. He has the same amount of walks as strikeouts so far in his professional career (37), and is hitting .330 so far in his career.
Mid 5:
— Modesto Nuts (@ModestoNuts) September 15, 2023
Nuts - 9
Giants - 4
Colt Emerson 2-run single breaks the game open to add to the 5-run fifth inning!!!#gonuts #seausgrow pic.twitter.com/emI6pBD0SU
The Mariners then selected young outfielder Jonny Farmelo with the 29th overall pick. Farmelo was not expected to sign, as he was committed to the University of VIrginia. Farmelo was off to a great start for single-A Modesto before a torn ACL ended his 2024 season. Like Ford, Young, and Emerson, Farmelo has shown to be an "on base guy". His OBP was .398 before the injury, while also slugging the ball. He had 17 extra base hits to go along with 18 stolen bases, and looked to be primed to be promoted to Everett before the injury.
Tai Peete was just 17 years old when the Mariners selected him with the 30th overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft. and at 18, Peete is also raking in Modesto. He may not have much power (yet), but the hit tool is on full display. .278/.360/.375/.734 as an 18 year old is impressive for sure. Peete also seems like he is a candidate to finish the year in High-A Everett. Peete has some work to do defensively, as the errors have piled up for him. He is still young, and I fully expect the power and defense to come around
The jury is still out on this draft class, but I am still giving this draft a solid A. The fact that all three were able to be signed, and all three are performing at their levels. The injury to Farmelo is a bummer for sure, but he is still young and eill have plenty of time to get back to form. The Mariners have been drafting well over Jerry Dipoto's tenure, and I expect much of the same in the draft this year.
As always, Go Mariners!