Don't let Jorge Polanco's strong second half fly under your radar

Jorge Polanco was one of the big offseason acquisitions that saw the Mariners send over a basket of pitchers and prospects to try and bring some stability to the second base position. After years of lackluster production, Jorge Polanco seemed like the best hope for the team after averaging a 120 OPS+ from 2021-2023 with the Twins. Even with missed time due to recurring injuries, he managed to accumulate 9.6 rWAR over that time.

The reality of the situation was far more depressing. His offense slumped immediately and by the end of June, his slash-line stood at .197/.285/.282 with three doubles and five home runs over 239 plate appearances. With all hope seemingly lost, few were expecting his 2025 team option worth $12 million to be exercised.

Jorge Polanco has quietly been good for the Mariners since the All-Star break

But things have changed in the second half. Over the 170 plate appearances he has had since the All-Star break, he's slashing .223/.318/.446 with six doubles and nine home runs. While the batting average is still lower than desired, his walk rate of 11.8% and big jump in slugging percentage have been great for his overall production.

The biggest change? His ability to hit the four-seam fastball. The most commonly thrown pitch in baseball by a significant margin, it's incredibly hard for any hitter to be successful if they can't time up the fastball. In the first half, Polanco's .490 OPS, 33.8% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate against the pitch was simply unsustainable. He only performed worse against two pitches: the curveball (.473 OPS) and splitter (.377 OPS).

In the second half, his production against the fastball jumped to a 1.303 OPS with an 18.6% strikeout rate and 16.3% walk rate. His .861 slugging percentage is particularly notable, driven by the five home runs and four doubles he has against the fastball.

Defensively, he's also had his issues. His range factor has been one of the worst, posting -10 Outs Above Average. Defensive Runs Saved, a more cumulative metric that takes into account everything, favors him slightly more but he's still below average at -4. It's harder to drill deeper into defensive metrics by split but a quick eye test would say that he has been making some strong plays in the middle infield recently.

If Polanco's second-half OPS of .764 was the level at which he had been hitting for all of 2024, he'd be behind just Victor Robles and Luke Raley in terms of overall production. After spending a few months as the worst qualified hitter in the lineup, he has already surpassed the likes of J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver in OPS+.

Unfortunately, this renaissance is likely coming around too late to save the Mariners' postseason hopes. However, it sets up a brighter future for the next year. The front office has the ability to let him go by not pulling the trigger on his option, a very real possibility given the price tag, but if they do decide to keep him around he'll likely hit the ground running in 2025.