Baseball is life! Josh Rojas’s dominance for the Mariners and what it means

The Seattle Mariners' resurgence in the past three weeks has been largely due to historic pitching, but it should not be forgotten that the offense has also been carried by an MVP-caliber start by one of the team's starters.

No, I'm not talking about Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, or Cal Raleigh. We're talking about the stunning and incredibly fun start by Josh Rojas.

The implications of the “Rojas Rise”

Rojas, who had been a versatile defender with an average bat for his hometown Arizona Diamondbacks for four and a half seasons, was part of the trade deadline deal with Seattle that saw Paul Sewald head to Phoenix, while Dominic Canzone and Rojas went to Seattle. 

While the deal played a large role in Arizona winning the NL pennant, Seattle may have stumbled upon something with Rojas. Heading into the Minnesota series, Rojas was slashing .360/.442/.587 with 3 long balls and an OPS+ of 200, which was good for the absolute best in the American League!

Rojas continued his torrid start with a 2-5 night in the second game of the series that included the game-winning hit in the 9th before the rest of the gang blew the doors off the Twins in a 10-6 rebound victory. He's already closing in on a 1.3 WAR start in just 26 games, which would equate to a 5.5 WAR player if he kept this up in his projected 120 games played, which will surely increase as long as he keeps playing like an MVP candidate.

A true Kyle Seager replacement?

Now, will Rojas finish the year as an MVP candidate? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he hasn't built himself an incredible launch pad that could take him to his first ever all-star game, and help lead Seattle to his first ever personal playoff appearance. It's arguably the best story on the team to start the season, but it does bring up some very real questions as this team moves forward, assuming Seattle continues to see a version of this Rojas for all of 2024.

Rojas is only making $3.1 million in 2024, and is arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, before hitting free agency in 2027. Seattle should have Rojas under team control through his prime years. While Eugenio Suarez was the right replacement for Kyle Seager, and at the right time, Rojas may be the logical Kyle Seager replacement for the next 3.5 seasons.

When you look at Rojas’s baseball savant page, we see someone who may lack premier power or exit velocity but has incredible plate vision and discipline. Rojas ranks in the 98th percentile in Sweet Spot %, 95th in Chase %,  85th in K%, and 80th in Walk Rate. So when he's not ambushing starting pitchers in the first inning as the new leadoff guy, Rojas is constantly getting on base with an elite eye that sees him walking or attacking the best pitch in each at bat.

I believe there's real evidence, since he's come to Seattle and immersed himself in “Controlling the Zone”, that Rojas could be a legitimate all-star caliber player through 2026.

Long-term implications of Josh Rojas

If any version close to what we're seeing currently from Josh Rojas holds up, then Seattle will not be in the trade business for a 3rd baseman at the trade deadline. This could potentially alter any plans to check in on guys like Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, or Bo Bichette.

While it is still somewhat early, Rojas has been carrying this lineup while guys like Jorge Polanco, Ty France, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver have severely underperformed. Do Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander turn their focus toward a first baseman or a corner outfield bat, knowing that they have what they need at 3rd? This could be a massive development where the lineup is one bat deeper for the playoffs than originally thought.

Looking beyond to the future, the play of Rojas could allow some of the minor league talent that is producing more time to get ready.

Tyler Locklear, who admittedly has not played 3B in two years, was a potential discussion at 3B if the Rojas/Urías platoon failed. Instead, one of the hottest bats in all of AA will put pressure on Ty France to produce, else he will get a shot at 1st base at some point this summer.

Cole Young and Colt Emerson, prized top 100 SS prospects, and who both are a ways away from the bigs, will face less pressure to make it to Seattle if Rojas continues to show out. There's a long, long line of bloodshed and failed prospects that were rushed up by leadership in Seattle, and to give these guys a real chance to grow and actually be ready, could be the difference in a fun 3-4 year run and a potential decade of being a true championship contender.

In the present, enjoy the Josh Rojas Experience, and enjoy some of the best play out of 3rd base the Mariners have seen in years.