As 2024 approaches, have the Mariners done enough to overcome the Astros?

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The Houston Astros did not feel like the same opponent in 2023 that they did in 2022. First, the Astros W-L record went from 106-56 in 2022 to 90-72 in 2023. Second, Seattle played six fewer games against them this past year due to the changes in schedule structure across baseball. In both seasons, however, the Mariners had a winning record against the Astros: 12-7 in 2022 and 9-4 in 2023. The 2022 playoff sweep at the hands of the Astros made them seem more dominant than they actually are.

Mariners vs Astros: Pitching

Starting Pitchers

The Mariners will still have their stellar starters this coming year. The team's depth chart lists Emerson Hancock as well as the five who pitched last year. Will the team move to a six-man rotation? We will learn a great deal more about the team's plans during Spring Training and then in the first several weeks of the regular season.

The Astros have had the same starting pitchers for a while. All starting pitchers, except Justin Verlander, have pitched exclusively with the Astros. J.P. France (the name makes me laugh every time) is the newest starting pitcher. Verlander played years in Detroit before joining Houston. This will be his eighth year in Houston, however, minus his short stint with the Mets in 2023. Continuity is a benefit for the Astros.

I think it is interesting that the Astros have eight pitchers listed in their rotation. We will see how they employ each of them as the season progresses. I have faith that the Mariners starters will have the advantage in games with Houston.

SEA	Pitching Arm	2023 ERA	Proj. 2024 ERA	HOU	Pitching Arm	2023 ERA	Proj. 2024 ERA
Castillo	RHP	3.34	3.64	Verlander	RHP	3.22	3.19
Kirby	RHP	3.35	3.59	Valdez	RHP	3.45	3.47
Gilbert	RHP	3.73	3.78	Javier	RHP	4.56	3.87
Miller	RHP	4.32	4.32	Urquidy	RHP	5.29	4.32
Woo	RHP	4.21	4.21	McCullers	LHP	3.48	3.60
Hancock	RHP	4.5	4.23	L. Garcia	RHP	4.00	3.99
Average ERA		3.91	3.95	H. Brown	RHP	5.09	4.57
				J.P. France	RHP	3.83	4.07
				Average ERA		4.12	3.89

Relief Pitchers

The Mariners have traded away several of Seattle's talented relief pitchers and have not replaced all of them yet. Justin Topa went to the Twins for Jorge Polanco. Isaiah Campbell went to Boston in the trade for Luis Urias. We saw Paul Sewald close for the Diamondbacks in the World Series. Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone came to Seattle in return for Sewald. I have seen some seriously nasty pitching from Seattle's new reliever, Gregory Santos, who formerly pitched for the White Sox.

This does not mean, however, that the relief pitchers that the Mariners have retained are not awesome. Just because the team's average ERA is not super low anymore does not mean that the players on the roster will not play well for Seattle come the regular season. Statistically, neither team has an advantage.

Hector Neris became a free agent after the 2023 season and will play for the Cubs this coming season. Josh Hader is the Astros' newest relief pitcher. A former Oriole, Hader pitched 56 innings in the regular season. He had 85 strikeouts and a 1.28 ERA. In addition, he is a lefty. I wonder if he will share the role of closer with Ryan Pressly (RHP) depending on the batters to come up in the final inning.

SEA	Pitching Arm	2023 ERA	Proj. 2024 ERA	HOU	Pitching Arm	2023 ERA	Proj. 2024 ERA
Munoz	RHP	2.94	3.54	Pressly	RHP	3.58	3.77
Brash	RHP	3.06	3.95	Montero	RHP	5.08	4.43
Saucedo	LHP	3.59	4.22	B. Abreu	RHP	1.75	3.09
Speier	LHP	3.79	4	Coleman	RHP	8.84	4.39
Thornton	RHP	2.01	3.91	Dubin	RHP	7.00	4.61
Campbell / Voth	RHP /RHP	2.83	4.66	S. Martinez	RHP	5.23	4.32
Sewald/ Santos	RHP / RHP	3.12	4.03
Topa	RHP	2.61	0	Mushinski	LHP	5.52	4.64
Gott	RHP	4.19	0	Sousa	LHP	4.00	4.94
Average		3.2	4.04	Blanco	RHP	4.5	4.57
				Whitley	RHP	0	0
				Graveman	RHP	3.12	3.6
				Ortega	RHP	0	0
				Hader	LHP	1.28	3.41
				Average		4.38	4.14

Mariners vs Astros: Lineup and hitting

Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros / Bob Levey/GettyImages

The position players are one way that the Mariners differ from the Astros. Except for replacing Maldonado with Diaz, Houston's starting lineup remains the same. The Mariners, on the other hand, only have four starting players returning.

Starting Lineup

I look forward to seeing familiar faces such as Cal Raleigh, Ty France, J.P. Crawford, and Julio Rodriguez at bat as well as Mitch Haniger. Our new second baseman, Jorge Palanco, comes from the Twins and is a strong batter and fielder. I am less certain about who will start on 3rd base.

I have heard that former Red Sox player Urias will play there. I have also heard that Dylan Moore and Josh Rojas will man third as a platoon. Then I read that Urias and Rojas will platoon. We will see. Luke Raley will play left field, Last year with the Rays, he hit 19 home runs and stole 14 bases. Mitch Haniger will fill the spot vacated by Hernandez when he signed with the Dodgers. Lastly, Mitch Garver will be the designated hitter. After winning the World Series, he has been very excited to be in Seattle!

As you can see, though the Mariners let go of some higher salaries, Baseball-Reference projects that the Mariners will have a batting average that is around the same or higher as it was last year. Will the coaching team take advantage of the element of surprise when the team plays opponents? I hope that the team gels well in Peoria. We now lack Penn Murfee and Eugenio Suarez who led the music performance last year.

The Astros look much like they did last year. The catcher change is significant, however, for batting. Diaz had a batting average of.282 last year, much higher than Maldonado's .191. The Astros have a higher projected cumulative batting average which is not new. We have lost some experienced players this offseason, but have a higher cumulative batting average. We have not lost ground here. The Mariners had an advantage early last season because Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve were injured. I anticipate that they will start the season in good health.

SEA	Batting arm	2023 BA	Proj. 2024 BA	HOU	Batting arm	2023 BA	Proj. 2024 BA
C: Raleigh	SH	.232	.228	C: Maldonado / Diaz	RHB/RHB	.191	.276
1B: France	RHB	.25	.268	1B: J. Abreu	RHB	.237	.261
2B: Caballero / Polanco	LHB	.221	.254	2B Altuve	RHB	.311	.289
3B: Suarez / Rojas	RHB /LHB	.232	.261	3B: Bregman	RHB	.262	.262
SS: Crawford	LHB	.266	.261	SS: Pena	RHB	.263	.264
LF: Kelenic / Raley	LHB / LHB	.253	.243	LF: McCormick	RHB	.273	.260
CF: Rodriguez	RHB	.275	.285	CF: Meyers	RHB	.227	.240
RF: Hernandez / Haniger	RHB / RHB	.258	.239	RF: Tucker	LHB	.284	.281
DH: Ford / Garver	LHB / RHB	.228	.249	DH: Alvarez	LHB	.293	.292
Average		.246	.254	Average		.260	.269

Substitutes and Position Players

Baseball-Reference projects that these Seattle players will improve their batting averages as will the Houston players. I do not think that either team has a real advantage here.

SEA	Batting Arm	2023 ERA	Proj. 2024 ERA	HOU	Batting Arm	2023 BA	Proj. 2024 BA
Moore	RHB	.207	.218	Caratini	SH	.259	.224
Murphy / Urias	RHB / RHB	.290	.243	Singleton	LHB	.165	.224
Haggerty	SH	.253	.245	Kessinger	RHB	.200	.247
Canzone	LHB	.220	.240	Dubon	RHB	.278	.258
Average		.242	.237	D. Machado	RHB	.226	.241
				Average		.226	.241

I look forward to seeing how well the Mariners play against the Astros this year. Repeating their seven-four W-L record in 2024 would be great!

The Mariners play the Astros four times during the season: May 3-5 in Houston; May 27-20 in Seattle; July 19-21 in Seattle; September 23-25 in Houston. Let's finish off with some fun trivia: Were you aware that the Astros used to be called the Houston Colt .45s? As always, go Mariners!

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