2023 Mariners ZiPS Projections - Final Thoughts and Predictions
Let's take a look at what this means overall for the Mariners, in a few different ways. I wanted to tally up their stats, and then list where that would've placed them last year in relation to the rest of the league. For reference, I've also listed their final counting stats from 2022 so we can see a bit of a comparison.
The team is going to hit better, SLG better, and run better. However, it looks like they are going to get on base less. To get these numbers, I took the main 12 or so guys for the Mariners and calc'd their 2023 stats. It looks like a nice upgrade, but there is still room for improvement.
There is also a fun sheet down lower on his list that shows 80/20 stats. Think a guy is going to be bad? Go for the 20th percentile stats. Think he's gonna dominate? Go with the 80th Percentile.
With the Mariners focus on controlling the zone, I could see the OBP go up a bit. If we are going to get all those other numbers, I think it's a good advancement and a nice step for this team. Considering the fact (as Dan S notes) that Dipoto likes to surprise, it's like that if this team is in fact in contention once more for the playoffs, he's going to make an addition to the team to strengthen their position.
I think we can all agree that if the Mariners can get 85% of the health they got from their starting rotation last year, the M's are going to be in a good position for 2023. It does help to have Flexen and Marco, who ZiPS sees performing admirably for a #5 with a 4.23 and 4.39 ERA, respectively.
All in all, this projects to a tight window team in the high 80s, which is a pretty good spot to be in ZiPS world. As Mariners fans, we should all be fairly happy with this year's predictions/projections.