A Deep Dive into the Mariners Top of the Lineup Struggles

Fifteen games into the season, the Mariner's offense has been off to a sluggish start. That’s been mostly due to the five guys who were hitting 1-5 on Opening Day. JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, & Cal Raleigh are all hitting below the Mendoza line, and all have an OPS below .600. There’s no way to sugarcoat it: that’s bad. Today, let’s break down the advanced metrics on each player, and discover why they have each been struggling at such a high clip. 

JP Crawford

Slashline: .164/.261/.262 (.523 OPS) 61 wrc+, 56 ops+, 0.1 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR

JP has struggled mightily after his career year in 2023. And right now, the advanced metrics are not showing a lot of positive signs. JP ranks in the 16th percentile for xBA (.205), which is notably still 41 points higher than his actual BA of .164, but still not very good. His expected slugging sits at .333, also much higher than his current mark of .262, but still only in the 27th percentile. 

The problem for JP is that he simply isn’t making good, hard contact. Crawford’s average exit velocity is currently just 85.1 MPH (12th percentile), his barrel rate is 4.1% (31st percentile), his hard hit % sitting at 28.6% (15th percentile), and his Sweet-spot % is just 16.3% (2nd percentile). Most troubling is the exit velocity numbers. JP, until last year, had always had an average exit velocity of around 85-86 MPH, which usually ranked in the bottom tenth of the league. That makes sense, he was never considered to be a power hitter.

Last year, he cranked his exit velo up to 88.3 MPH, a career-high, and suddenly hit 19 HRs. This year, his exit velo seems to be returning to career norms, indicating that perhaps that power influx from last year was a mirage, possibly the ‘driveline effect.’ Similarly, with his hard hit %, JP set a career-high last year, when he hit the ball hard in 36.2% of ABs, easily the best of his career. This year he is at 28.6%, which is quite similar to his career average of 30.8%. Perhaps JP Crawford just isn’t a power hitter? 

Now, he can make this work, and we’ve seen him be a good hitter without the power. JP Crawford was a productive hitter in 2021-2022 despite only hitting 15 home runs. He had 103 wrc+ and a 101 ops+ during that span, so even without power, JP was a slightly above-average hitter. Some of his decline this year could be attributed to the increase in breaking balls he’s been seeing. Pitchers are throwing breaking balls to JP 29% of the time, the most of his career. Not surprisingly, he’s whiffing at 32% of breaking balls. JP crushed offspeed pitches last year, hitting .301 with 4 HRs, but he is seeing fewer offspeed pitches than ever before (8.3%). 

The good news? He isn’t chasing pitches, and he isn’t striking out much. His chase rate of 19% ranks in the 89th percentile, and his whiff rate at 15.9% is 87th percentile. He is striking out 17.4% of the time, which is slightly less than his career average of 18%. 

If JP wants to get back to being a productive hitter, he would benefit from being more patient and adjusting to breaking balls. Last year he led the AL in walks, which were a huge part of his game. This year he is walking only 10.1% of the time, which would be the third-lowest walk rate of his career. Improving his plate discipline will also hopefully give him better pitches to hit. If the underlying numbers are accurate, Crawford might not be a power hitter, and if that is the case, he needs to go back to his contact roots and do what made him a productive player in 2021-22. If not, these trends could continue to get ugly for the Mariner's shortstop. 

Jorge Polanco

Slashline: .196/.318/.304 (.622 OPS) 89 wrc+, 86 ops+, -0.3 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Polanco, for what it’s worth, has been the best of the Mariners' “top 5” hitters this year, in terms of OPS, ops+, and wrc+. That’s because he, at least, is drawing walks. He is 83rd percentile in walks, with his 13.6% rate, well above his career average of 8.8%. So that is promising. 

The rest is not as promising. Polanco combines Julio’s high strikeout rates with Crawford’s low exit velocities, and the result has not been pretty. Polanco’s 33.3% strikeout (11th percentile) is by far the highest in his career, and that might not be as worrisome if not for the trend he’s been on the past five years. Let’s take a look. 

2020: 15.5%
2021: 18.3%
2022: 21.3%
2023: 25.7%
2024: 33.3%

Polanco’s strikeout rate has jumped in each of the past five years, which probably should have been a red flag when trading for him, but is definitely a red flag now. The silver lining is that although Polanco is striking out a lot, and whiffing a lot (29.3), his chase rate isn’t terrible. He’s only chasing 25.3% of the time, which is right at the league average, so maybe there will be some improvement in the strikeout rate going forward. 

What is probably even more worrisome for Polanco is the exit velocity of 85.5 MPH, which would be the lowest in his career. It would also be the fourth year in a row that his average exit velo has declined, although this year is a much steeper decline than last year (88 MPH). Unlike JP, Polanco has always hit the ball hard in his career, until now, so he should theoretically improve.

His hard-hit rate of 35.3% is 33rd percentile, while he does have a nice sweet-spot % of 35.3, which ranks in the 56th percentile. He still needs to barrel the ball up more (currently only 5.9%), but hopefully, when he does, the exit velo and hard-hit rates will improve as well. 

Just like the previous two guys, Polanco has been thrown more breaking balls than ever before in 2024. 34.1% breaking balls is easily the most he’s ever seen. He’s hitting .158, and whiffing 32.6% of the time against them. However, Polanco also has not been able to hit the fastball this year, which is probably more concerning. He is currently hitting just .154 against fastballs (xBA of .210), and whiffing at a 25.8% clip. 

For Polanco to see positive improvement, he will need to cut down on his strikeouts, especially against the fastball, which makes me think this could be more of a timing issue than anything else. That’s a good thing, because a timing issue can be fixed a lot easier than a long-term decline in power. However, the strikeout rates and low exit velocities are undeniably a concern, and Polanco will need to get a hold of them if he wants to get back to being a league-average pitcher. 

Cal Raleigh

Slashline: .196/.245/.326 (.571 OPS), 67 wrc+, 68 ops+, 0.4 bWAR, 0 fWAR

Cal has been off to a slow start as well, but his start has been most similar to his archetype as a player. Cal is hitting the ball hard, and swinging at everything. That’s pretty much been Cal Raleigh as a player his whole career. 

Cal’s average exit velocity of 92.6 MPH is currently a career-high, sitting in the 87th percentile. His barrel rate of 10.7% is in the 72nd percentile, despite being about 5% lower than his career high in 2022. He also sports a hard-hit rate of 46.4%, which is above his career average of 41.2%, and in the 72nd percentile for 2024. So he is hitting the ball hard and has a solid barrel rate. 

Now for the bad. Cal Raleigh has struck out on 36.7% of his at-bats this year and is in the 5th percentile for that stat. Easily the highest strikeout rate in the career for a guy who always has high strikeout rates. His whiff rate (30.9%) and chase rate (32.4%) aren’t much better, and his walk rate of 6.1% is also much lower than last year when he walked on 9.5% of his at-bats. The bottom line is that Cal has been swinging and missing, a lot, and that is why, despite solid barrel rates and exit velocities, his xBA (.182), and xSLG (.308) are actually worse than his current rates of .190 & .333! And you’ll be shocked to hear the biggest reason why. 

I feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record here; Cal Raleigh cannot hit the breaking ball. He is being thrown breaking balls 37.4% of the time, more than 10% more than last year. He is hitting .200 against breaking balls, with an xBA of .102. He is whiffing at 38.9% of breaking balls, and until he is able to lay off those pitches, they are going to keep coming. He also does not have a single hit yet against offspeed pitches, though he has only seen 9 of them, so it is a very small sample size. 

Cal has always been a high-strikeout, high-power guy, so these trends are not super surprising or worrisome. He just needs to strike out 5% less and improve his barrel rate by 2-3%, and his numbers will likely revert to career norms. 

Mitch Garver

Slashline: .156/.250/.222 (.472 OPS). 45 wrc+, 41 ops+, -0.4 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

The Mariners' big free agent signing of the offseason Mitch Garver has looked miserable at the plate so far this year, but the underlying numbers don’t look as bad. Let’s dive into it. 

Garver’s xBA of .151 and xSLG of .247 are awful, and both rank in the bottom tenth of the league. However, there are some good signs underneath those numbers. His average exit velocity sits at 89.5 MPH, which is above league average. Also above league average, in the 62nd percentile, is his 36.7% sweet-spot rate. His hard-hit rate of 36.7% is 43rd percentile, so also right about league average, while his barrel rate is currently just 3.3%, the lowest since his rookie season. His low barrel rate is worrisome, but the rest of those numbers are fine. Garver isn’t showing other-worldly power, but he is making good, solid contact for the most part. 

His strikeout rate of 30.8% has not been impressive, however, and his BB% of 9.6 is the second worst of his career. What is interesting is that while Garver’s overall numbers might look worse, he is striking out less than Rodriguez, Polanco, and Raleigh, while walking more than both Rodriguez and Raleigh, so perhaps Garver is also falling victim to some bad luck here. Still, a 34.5% whiff rate is not good, and he is below league average with his 28.1% chase rate as well. 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Garver is seeing a career-high 40% breaking balls this year. He is hitting .063 against such pitches, and whiffing 47.4% of the time. Those numbers are consistent with his career totals against breaking balls. He has only hit above .200 twice in his career against breaking balls (although 2023 was one of those years, so maybe we thought he had turned a corner). Garver is also only hitting .167 against fastballs, despite only whiffing 20% of the time, which is concerning.

He is making contact against fastballs, but he isn’t getting nearly enough hits. And that’s despite a 94.7 average exit velocity against fastballs, which is the best of his career! Part of the problem there is that Garver is hitting a lot of ground balls (36.7%) and a career-low in fly balls (20%). For a guy who is really known for being a power hitter, he is going to have to hit more fly balls if he wants to hit more home runs. Perhaps more than any other Mariner, Garver has suffered from making a lot of hard-contact ground ball outs. Hopefully, that’s just an early trend that will reverse itself. 

Mariners Lineup Struggles: The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that the Mariners' best five hitters are striking out too much, not walking enough, can’t hit breaking balls, and are hitting into a lot of hard-ground ball outs. Overall, Julio and Cal are probably the least concerning based on the underlying numbers, while Polanco is the guy causing the most doubt, due to his long-term trends in K% and exit velocity. 

The “spin-it-to-win-it” mantra has so far paid off for opposing pitchers against the M’s, and my guess is that it will continue to pay off until the Mariners learn how to lay off breaking balls and wait for a better pitch. Yes, it is still early, and yes, many of these trends will get better as the season goes on. But 1/10th in the season, the Mariners presumed top-5 hitters have failed to carry the weight, and the result has been the mediocre 6-10 record to start the year.