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5 optimistic predictions for the Mariners as we head into 2023
Sitting here in advance of Spring Training, I've been doing my best to stay realistic. I know that not every Mariners player is going to have a career year. The Starting Pitchers aren't going to stay completely healthy again. There will be a couple of guys that struggle, and things will just plain go wrong for a while.
However, sometimes it's fun to go the other way with things and embrace being an optimistic fan. I'm not talking about going crazy and saying the Mariners sweep the big 3 awards and have the MPV, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year (but they could...), but still looking at some overly optimistic things that I think could happen for the Mariners this year.
There are a ton of things that you could pick, all with varying levels of realism associated with them. Shoot, you could even go the other way and try and be overly pessimistic about it. I see that enough from a specific group of people online, and choose to stick in the positive realm. Good Vibes Only! I'd rather be a bit of a homer by staying positive and realistic than living within the negative.
What I want to do is bring you five different optimistic predictions for the Mariners this year, starting with the most realistic and heading to the least realistic. From hitters to pitchers to team predictions, here are 5 optimistic predictions for the Mariners 2023 season.
Mariners Prediction #5. Ty France doesn't get hurt, hits .315, wins the Batting Title
This is one that I've harped on a bunch since Ty France got to the Mariners. When he is healthy, the dude rakes. Seriously, it isn't facetious to say that he is one of the best hitters in baseball when his wrist is healthy. Just take a look at how he's done when he is healthy vs how he has done with the wrist injury.
Healthy: 867 AB, .309/.381/.476 Slash line
Injured: 255 AB, .196/.260/.322 Slash line
That's a massive difference, and it's apparent whenever he is injured that it is greatly affecting his game. As always, the issue with him lies with how he crowds the plate and how often he gets hit. 48 in the last two years, one of the highest rates in baseball in HBP. If he can cut down on that a bit without affecting his strategy or approach at the plate, I think we are going to see him contend for the BA crown in 2023.
That .309 line while healthy is why. Take a look at the leaders over the last couple of years, and you can see that it would put him in the mix. .316 and .319 have won the award in the AL in the last two seasons. I think he can put himself in that general area, and end up taking home the award for the Mariners... IF HE STAYS HEALTHY.
Mariners Prediction #4. Mariners bullpen has the best ERA in baseball
Just like with the France prediction, I don't think this one is all that crazy. In 2022, they ended up having the 6th best ERA for relievers last season, coming in at 3.33. With Munoz having a full year under his belt and Brash looking like a monster in Spring Training, I think the Mariners are going to have a lot of nasty pitchers in the pen.
Even the rest of the crew is pretty good. Sure, I know that we could always see someone fall apart after a good season a.k.a. Drew Steckenrider, but I'm staying optimistic. Penn Murfee and Matt Festa were incredible finds last season. Other than a handful of rough outings, Diego Castillo was actually pretty darn good in 2022, with a 1.87 ERA in 56 of his appearances. We won't talk about the other ones.
I haven't even talked about the Mariners closer yet in Paul Sewald. He's been great the last two seasons, and posted an incredible WHIP last year at just 0.766. The Mariners are looking to repeat the success they've found in the last two seasons, and look poised to be even better if things go right in 2023. An ERA of around 2.80, which is what the Astros led the league with last season, seems plausible for the Mariners.
Mariners Prediction #3. Logan Gilbert finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting
Logan Gilbert was really good against everyone in 2022 not named the New York Yankees. It even happened in back-to-back starts. In 9.1 IP, he gave up 17 hits, 13 ER, 5 BB, and 4 HR to the Yankees resulting in an ERA of 12.54 and a WHIP of 2.36.
In the other 30 starts that he made, he had an ERA of just 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.12. That's pretty darn good. So, let's try and build the case for how he could get there.
Say that Gilbert takes another step forward, and increases the K/9 by just a little bit. He was a 9.7 in 2021, but down to a 8.4 last season. Let's settle in between those numbers at... 9.4 K/9. An increase of one per full game from last year. It's a jump, but it's not unreasonable.
He also threw 185.2 IP last year across his 32 starts. He definitely has shown the ability and aptitude to go deep into games, throwing 6 or more innings in 18 of his starts, and making it 5 or more in all but one start (one of the Yankees ones mentioned earlier). So, let's average him out to about 6.15 IP per start. That gets him to approximately 197 IP. It would've been 9th in MLB last year for innings pitched. It might be a lot, but again, second in Cy Young voting is what we are going for.
We bump the ERA down a bit, to 2.44. His WHIP follows and finishes at 1.03. Those numbers would be 7th and 15th, respectively. With that K rate, he would be at 206 Ks, which would be 9th as well. Add that all up and pair it with the Mariners being a playoff team, and you have a pitcher that is going to have a strong Cy Young case, but fall short in the end.
Mariners Prediction #2: Jarred Kelenic hits .241 with 30 HR
I'm a stan for Jarred Kelenic. I'll say it over and over, as many times as I need to. This guy has not been given a fair chance yet. Yes, I know that he is in a statistical class of his own for the number of at-bats that he has seen and how low his average is. I understand he has struggled, and that things have been ugly at times for Kelenic.
He also turns 24 in July, and has a lot less exposure to baseball than nearly anyone his age. He is from Wisconsin, where it isn't always easy to play year-round. You get a lot less at-bats and game time there. Then, he lost the whole COVID season. That's not very many ABs for someone his age, and puts him behind the 8-ball.
To me, I see not a 23-year-old, but a 20/21 year-old for the exposure side of it. Now, we've got a full offseason with the Mariners staff, a more mature kid, and a much better team around him than in the past that should help take pressure off of him.
He's got 21 HR in 500 ABs and has done that with a BABIP of just .201. Taking him out of the lineup against LHP (.157/.228/.243) should help him focus on RHP and take advantage of them. I'm saying he finally figures it out, and rakes against them this year, finishing fourth on the team with 30 HR. Yeah, fourth.
Mariners Prediction #1: Mariners win the World Series
Did you really think I would make it through all of this without making a team prediction? I think it's the hope of many a Mariners fan, but for the first time in a long time, it's a semi-reasonable hope. The Mariners are supposed to be good, have a ton of talent, some burgeoning stars and potential superstars, and are coming off of a playoff season.
In the past, this would be brushed away as the ravings of a crazy person. Now though? With the Mariners around 9th in WS odds and 4th in the American League, it's not a totally unreasonable proclamation to make.
Think about it. That pitching staff is going to be good, or at least has the potential to be. The Core Four either have good Cy Young odds (Castillo, Gilbert, and Ray are all 18-1 or better) and Kirby is a control master who many think is going to have plenty of Cy Young votes in the future. If they can get something serviceable out of Flexen/Marco/Miller, then it's going to be a great year for them.
The offense has gotten a lot better too. I believe in Kelenic (obviously), Wong is much better than Frazier, and Teoscar should be a nice power addition who has a good bat as well and has a track record of staying healthy. France's elbow and wrist sound like they're healthy again, which should be a big help as well. No Jesse Winker is always a blessing also, at least when it's the 2022 version.
I would love to see the Mariners make it to the World Series and finally get off that list of teams to never make it... the one where they are the sole listing. Break the drought one year and make it to the World Series the next. Go Mariners!