5 Mariners players who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024

Spring Training is so close I can taste it. Whenever we get inside that one month mark, I start to get excited. It's the next step in getting closer to the season, and is just one of the many marks I look forward to as it approaches. MLB The Show will release their cover athlete soon (although it sounds like Julio may be DQ for being on some EA Sports Tap Mobile game), and pitchers and catchers will report in just a few weeks.

Shoot, I started writing this on the 24th, and the first Spring Training game is only a month away from today. It got me thinking about all the new Mariners on the team as well as the pressure that this team is going to be under heading into 2024. After breaking the insane playoff drought in 2022 and giving the Astros arguably their toughest series of the postseason, the Mariners looked prime for a long run of playoff berths.

They narrowly missed out in 2023, as their additions just didn't do enough to make an impact. With plenty of new faces in 2024 and a potential for 4 new starters in the lineup (Garver, Haniger, Raley, Urias), there is a lot of risk/reward and pressure for 2024. Can the Mariners get back into the playoffs, or will some of these new players fold under the pressure and lead to a similar outcome from 2023?

It's going to be a mix of new and old, as we look at five Mariners that could determine the success or failure of the 2024 team. Let's jump into it with a new look at an old friend.

Mariners Difference Maker #5: Mitch Haniger

You could go with either corner outfield spot here, but I think there is a lot more variance in the numbers that we could see from Mitch Haniger this year as opposed or compared to Luke Raley.

It starts with health. An injured Haniger could easily snowball into missing 100+ games, leaving a big hole in RF that has to be filled with an option that doesn't look great as it stands. They could go with Canzone, and he is the likely first call, but the offense definitely needs to improve, although his underlying numbers do look to have success on the way.

If the Mariners can get good Haniger, thats a huge win. I'm not talking about the 6+ WAR season that he had for the Mariners, but more in line with the 3+ WAR season he had in 2021. Can Haniger play 135 games and hit 25 homers? If he does, thats a big win for the Mariners, and he will likely end up with a bigger impact than what Teoscar Hernandez had last season. If not, it's a wasted roster spot. The gap in ceiling and floor really is that big.

Mariners Difference Maker #4: Ty France

This, out of anyone on this list or even on the entire team, is the player that I want to see succeed in 2024. When Ty France is on, he is such a good hitter. It's more than that, though. He isn't just a good hitter, shoot, not even a great hitter. He's an incredible hitter. To hit .310 in today's game means something much different than what it used to, and France has shown the ability to do that over prolonged stretches in his career.

It's the HBPs and injuries that plague him, though. In mid-2022 he was hit by Nuese on a semi-dirty collision at first, and didn't hit the same the rest of the year. Last year, he took some pitches off his wrist and hands that hampered his play.

It's tough to just say "stop getting hit" when it's part of your approach and how you stand over the plate. We've all heard that he is going to driveline this offseason, and he's been there already. It made a massive improvement to JP Crawford's game. If we can see Ty France get back to the realm of .285/.355/.443 hitter, it's a win for the Mariners. And no, those aren't random numbers... they are his averages from the 2020-2022 seasons.

Mariners Difference Maker #3: JP Crawford

Speaking of JP Crawford, he is next up on the list. He had such a massive improvement in 2023, that it's understandable to expect a bit of a drop back to normalcy in 2024.

Unless that is, those changes at Driveline are longer lasting and are a sign of what JP Crawford has become, instead of just a flash in the pan that will be an outlier to his career. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the numbers from last year are sustainable and that they weren't just luck-based.

His eye was much better at the plate, leading the American League in walks and setting the stage more often for Julio. His launch angle was up a bit, as was hit exit velo, sweet spot %, and hard-hit rate. He was topping it less, making less weak contact, and barreling the ball up more often. There is a lot more red across his rankings; they are all good signs. His BABIP was only .314 as well, which is nothing crazy.

I think getting the same JP we saw last year would be a success for this lineup. If he can set the table like last year, doing it for Julio, Haniger, Garver, Raleigh, or Raley (whoever is at the 2/3/4), it's going to be a massive indicator of this team's success or failure in 2024.

Mariners Difference Maker #1: Bryce Miller

Maybe you were expecting to see Julio or one of the pitchers on this list. It's a fair question, but good seasons by them instead of great ones will still make a strong positive impact. It's why I wanted to focus on Bryce Miller as the final, and arguably most important, entrant on this list.

We know that the Mariners have a dominant top-3 in their rotation. Depending on where you look, they have 3 of the top 8/9 in the American League Cy Young voting. I can't tell you the last time a team had that many in the top 10. It's why I think Bryce Miller could be so important to the Mariners this year as their number 4. (If you prefer Bryan Woo here, just swap the names in your head... I'm a Miller guy.)

Here's the thought process. If Miller can make that leap like we saw Gilbert and Kirby make, even at 85% of what they did, he becomes arguably the best #4 starter in baseball, and someone who would be a #2/#3 on plenty of teams. Having that as your #4 is wild. You dont have to worry about finding wins in the back half of your rotation or scoring a ton in those games to have a chance. If Miller, who averaged 5.24 IP per start, can throw 30 games with 5.5 IP per start?

Yeah, the Mariners would be in a fantastic spot.

With a WHIP just under 1.2 last season and a sub 4.00 FIP, Miller has great stuff. With a full offseason in the bigs under his belt and the tutelage and assistance of the best top 3 in baseball, Miller will have little to no pressure this year. If we do see Miller post a sub-4 ERA while throwing 165-175 IP, the Mariners record is going to instantly get better. Especially if that nasty Splitter performs like it looks in his offseason workout videos.

Those are the 5 Mariners that I think are going to have the biggest impact on the success or failure of the team this season. It's getting close, everyone, and we should be excited. Go Mariners!