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3 things I like about the Mariners 2024 Zips projections, and 3 things I don't like
The things I like about the Mariners 2024 Zips
#1: Julio Rodriguez's 80th percentile numbers
In talking with some friends, I was trying to figure out what would happen if Julio didn't have a long rough stretch during the season. It happened at the start of 2022, and he had a rough stretch for a while in 2023 as well. I think taking a look at his 80th percentile numbers gives a good glimpse into what could happen in that case. 7.0 WAR, .302/.366/.547 slash, and pushing 40/40. His normal projections are 32HR/34SB with a .274/.336/.488. Does Julio have a 40/40 in there?
#2: The top of the pitching staff is so darn fun
I truly think that if the Mariners top three pitchers are on their game, it's one of the best trio's that we have seen since the turn of the millennium. No, they don't compare to the Braves, but few in history do. However, when your number 3 is projected at a 3.50 ERA with 182.1 IP, you are in a darn good spot. Check this out, especially the Bryce Miller numbers.
Luis Castillo - 3.27 ERA, 4.0 WAR
George Kirby - 3.48 ERA, 3.6 WAR
Logan Gilbert - 3.50 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Bryce Miller - 3.88 ERA, 2.3 WAR
If those guys are on? If Kirby and Gilbert continue to mature and get better as they reach their prime? Oh man, are we in for a lot of 2-1 games in Seattle.
#3: That Jonatan Clase is insanely talented
I'm a massive Jonatan Clase fan. I had the chance to interview him back in April 2021, when he was still 18. We did the interview in Spanish (which I don't speak, but used Google) but he was incredibly professional about it, and we even re-did it because he thought it could go better. I was quite impressed and have been since.
Clase is insanely fast, with 79 steals in A+ and AA last season. He's learned to switch hit and developed pop as well, and if he played in the majors, ZiPS projects him as the Mariners 2nd best OF. 38 steals, 15 HR, but just a .208/.281/.358 slash line. He's entering his age-22 season, and seeing projections like that show just what kind of talent he has.