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3 things I like about the Mariners 2024 Zips projections, and 3 things I don't like
The Mariners 2024 ZIPS projections are out, and it's time to take a look at what we like and don't like about this years projections for the team
One of my favorite times of the offseason is when the ZiPS projections come out over on Fangraphs. Dan Szymborski does awesome work and is a really nice and easy guy to talk to, I chatted with him about the Mariners a couple years ago on a podcast. The morning of the 13th, he released the Mariners ZiPS projections, and the overlying theme is one that all Mariners fans have been talking about all offseason.
The pitching is great and the hitting is very, very, VERY thin. Of course it is highlighted by Julio Rodriguez, and far and away projects to be the Mariners best hitter once again. Shoot, it's probably going to be that way for a while. Normally I wouldn't get into the need for more hitting here, except for the fact that Dan brings it up as an important part of the Mariners projections for the upcoming season.
You can't get rid of Kelenic, Teoscar, and Geno, replacing them with Luis Urias and nothing else and expect to still compete, especially in the AL West. I think this quote really hits home with everything that M's fans have been feeling this offseason.
When your projected win total is in the 80s, efficiency has to go on the back burner; it’s not the time to pinch pennies.
There is also another extremely important thing to remember when looking at ZiPS. The numbers don't add up if you're looking for a full season's worth of data. Instead, Dan explains it as the performances are what they are projected to do at the major league level, should they play there. Remember, the majority will not, but it's a projection of IF they did.
Let's look into the actual numbers. Here are three things that I like about the projections, and three that I don't like.
The things I like about the Mariners 2024 Zips
#1: Julio Rodriguez's 80th percentile numbers
In talking with some friends, I was trying to figure out what would happen if Julio didn't have a long rough stretch during the season. It happened at the start of 2022, and he had a rough stretch for a while in 2023 as well. I think taking a look at his 80th percentile numbers gives a good glimpse into what could happen in that case. 7.0 WAR, .302/.366/.547 slash, and pushing 40/40. His normal projections are 32HR/34SB with a .274/.336/.488. Does Julio have a 40/40 in there?
#2: The top of the pitching staff is so darn fun
I truly think that if the Mariners top three pitchers are on their game, it's one of the best trio's that we have seen since the turn of the millennium. No, they don't compare to the Braves, but few in history do. However, when your number 3 is projected at a 3.50 ERA with 182.1 IP, you are in a darn good spot. Check this out, especially the Bryce Miller numbers.
Luis Castillo - 3.27 ERA, 4.0 WAR
George Kirby - 3.48 ERA, 3.6 WAR
Logan Gilbert - 3.50 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Bryce Miller - 3.88 ERA, 2.3 WAR
If those guys are on? If Kirby and Gilbert continue to mature and get better as they reach their prime? Oh man, are we in for a lot of 2-1 games in Seattle.
#3: That Jonatan Clase is insanely talented
I'm a massive Jonatan Clase fan. I had the chance to interview him back in April 2021, when he was still 18. We did the interview in Spanish (which I don't speak, but used Google) but he was incredibly professional about it, and we even re-did it because he thought it could go better. I was quite impressed and have been since.
Clase is insanely fast, with 79 steals in A+ and AA last season. He's learned to switch hit and developed pop as well, and if he played in the majors, ZiPS projects him as the Mariners 2nd best OF. 38 steals, 15 HR, but just a .208/.281/.358 slash line. He's entering his age-22 season, and seeing projections like that show just what kind of talent he has.
The things I don't like about the Mariners 2024 Zips
#1: They are not fans of Josh Rojas... at all
I like the Rojas and Caballero combo at second. I think they both have solid enough defense, and do exactly what you want out of your second baseman position. Cabby is feisty, quick, and messes with pitchers. Rojas gives you a surprising power/speed boost with a good bat. He had a 0.8 WAR in 46 games with the Mariners last year, and a 3.2 with Arizona in 2022.
ZiPS sees him struggling this year, though. .225/.298/.345 with a 0.7 WAR. This one seems odd to me, as even his 80th percentile numbers don't reach what he did in Seattle last year or Arizona in 2022... or 2021. Are we going to see that Rojas, or the one that struggled in Arizona in 2023? Let's hope that was the outlier and not the real thing.
#2: Not their fault, but the lineup is so ugly
I despise this lineup so much right now, and I really want to like it. I really do. I think you could tell it was going to be ugly when Clase was the 2nd best OF on the roster on here, and the 7th best hitter overall. Add up your DH, LF, RF, 3B, and 2B combo of Rojas+Cabby, and you get a 6.4 WAR from six players. it's worse when you look at just the Moore/Trammell/Marlowe combo, all you sit within the starting 9 hitters and combine for a 2.6 WAR. You just cannot have that. Gross.
#3: Justin Topa gets no love
This one surprised me the most. Topa had a great 2023, posting a 2.61 ERA with a 3.15 FIP, and even had a 3.66 FIP the year before that (only 7 games that season). He was worth 1.6 WAR as well, showing true value to the Mariners. ZiPS kicks him straight in the shin by projecting a 0.2 WAR season with a 4.25 ERA, lower K rate, higher BB rate, double the HR rate, and a 4.29 FIP. Could he turn into Drew Steckenrider from a couple of years ago and just forget how to pitch? Let's hope not.
There are a lot of fun things to look at on here, and I'll spend hours just chewing through the numbers. Go check it all out, and as always, go Mariners!