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3 Takeaways from the Mariners' April atop the AL West
The Mariners sit atop of the AL West despite poor early performances from Julio and company. There are some takeaways to glean from April baseball, even if sometimes the statistics can only been taken semi-seriously given the sample size.
Takeaway #1- The starting rotation could be the best in the American League
8-1 with a 1.22 ERA in their last 12 starts as part of a historic run. They also have an insane 10.46 K/9 in that range, which is a difficult number for an individual to attain but almost impossible for five guys to accomplish together. Seattle's rotation had a slow start, with guys like Luis Castillo and George Kirby struggling in their first few starts, but they've been dominating since.
Opposing batters are hitting .163 against Luis's slider this year, and they're striking out at a 43.2% clip against the pitch. Last year, his four-seam was dominant and his sinker also performed well, but his four-seam is down almost a mile per hour this year to 95.3 MPH. Kirby's ground ball rate is down to 33% from 44.2%, which could play a role in the rise of his BABIP. His historically good command has persisted, however, with a 3% BB rate in April.
Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert both have ERA's under 2.10, and all signs point to this unit being the strongest piece of this Mariners club. Bryce's new addition to his repertoire, his splitter, has performed with a .156 BA in April. Gilbert’s K rate is up to 29.3%, which is encouraging despite the 10.3% barrel rate. Both of these guys have actually gotten hit hard this year at points but pitched well overall. This unit has put together quality start after quality start, even Emerson Hancock has had his moments. This rotation has masked the weaknesses of the offense, which hit .217 in April and ranked in the bottom third of the MLB in wRC+.
Luis Castillo, White Castle Special. 🤮🍔🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/p2D5I2do4q
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2024
Takeaway #2- The Mariners are still striking out way too much
In fact, they rank dead last in the MLB with a 28.7% K rate. Jerry Dipoto made it a priority this past winter to cut down on K's by unloading Kelenic and Teoscar as I mentioned a few weeks ago, but things haven't gotten better. Five everyday players are striking out at a clip north of 30%, and that doesn't even include Luke Raley (30.4%).
Julio and Cal are two of the worst culprits, with Cal striking out at an unacceptable 35% line. Julio has a K rate over 32% and only one home run to show for it. Mitch Haniger started off hot, but he hasn't produced much of anything in the last few weeks and has made a few defensive blunders in the outfield already as well. Dylan Moore has struggled to hit above the Mendoza, while guys with smaller sample sizes like Urias and Jonatan Clase have also struck out their fair share.
Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco are both hitting under .180 and at least part of the problem is the swing and miss component of their profile. Garver has a .143 BA with only a .160 xBA, which is 1st percentile. The 31.6% K rate doesn't help, but a low 24.66% chase rate is encouraging., as was the walk-off dinger a few new nights ago.
Jorge is also missing pitches in the zone, but he's generating little hard contact when he does indeed make contact. His 85.9MPH exit velocity is only 13th percentile, and his bat is the way he'll be valuable as he's never been known as a good defender. The Mariners have to turn this around, or it'll be a long year watching this offense.
Max Fried, Wicked 94mph Cutting Fastball. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/IvnN9UqwKG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2024
Takeaway #3- The AL West is up for grabs
The Astros and Texas Rangers don't have the starting pitching right now to take the West from the Mariners due to injuries and performance issues. The Angels will be without Trout for at least a few months, which KO's them for the year essentially. The Astros starting rotation struggled to a 5.10 ERA in April, and that's buoyed heavily by a shocking 1.65 ERA from Ronel Blanco that includes a no-hitter.
It's also worth noting the Astros have hit with the 2nd best April wRC+ in the American League behind the Baltimore Orioles. The Rangers haven't had that kind of offensive dominance, but they managed a 106 wRC+ in April despite Corey Seager going through an ice-cold stretch. The Rangers pulled off a 3.87 starter ERA last month, but it'll be difficult to sustain that with deGrom, Mahle, and Scherzer still out for a while.
John Fisher killed the A's before the season started by not bothering to sign any free agents, so this is essentially a three team race between Seattle, Houston, and Texas. It goes without saying Houston has Mount Everest to climb to win the division right now, but Fangraphs still gives them a 28% chance of winning the AL West yet again. The defending champion Texas Rangers have a powerful lineup, but they have an average bullpen and a myriad of health concerns in the starting rotation right now. The Al West is for the Mariners to take, but they can't keep striking out at a 29% rate!