3 Reasons JP Crawford is the answer going forward for the Mariners at shortstop

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I don't think it's pushing the envelope to say that JP Crawford has been the hardest player on the Mariners to figure out over the last coupleof years. I know I've written plenty about him, both on the "I love this dude" side of it, as well as the "I don't think he's good enough" side of it. I waver back and forth, have always wanted to like him and have it work with him, and once again am falling into the "I love this dude" side of the argument.

JP Crawford always seems to have a hot stretch for the Mariners. Then, he plays average baseball the rest of the year, bordering on below average. It makes for a decent stat line for the season, but you are usually left wanting a little bit more. Either the bat seems to be playing well but the defense is faltering, or the opposite happens and the glove looks golden but he's hitting near the Mendoza line.

Well, 2023 has been a bit different. When the glove is flashing and the bat is playing, Crawford makes for a sneaky good ballplayer. He isn't just someone that you can throw into your lineup, he's someone who fits in as potentially your 4th best player on a team. It's odd to think about him that way, but let's get into some of the reasons why he quietly makes the case for that spot on a playoff team.

JP Crawford is hitting the ball WAY harder than ever before

Throughout his career, I think everyone could agree that Crawford was a soft-hitting shortstop. More of a slap the ball into play, find some gaps and get doubles when possible. Taking a look at his average exit velo and hard-hit rate, it's easy to see that it was 100% the case. Check his numbers out since 2019 when he came to Seattle, and you can see the outlier real fast.

Season	Average Exit Velocity	% Ranking Av Exit Velo	Hard Hit Rate	% Ranking Hard Hit Rate
2019	85.0 mph	3	24.8%	6
2020	85.8 mph	9	31.1%	15
2021	86.3 mph	8	30.6%	8
2022	85.1 mph	4	29.5%	5
2023	90.6 mph	68	37.0%	37

2023 is like watching a completely different hitter. Those first four years, Crawford was somewhere around 250th in the league on average for his exit velocity. So far in 2023, he is sitting T-82nd. That is such a massive increase, it's incredible. As you can see from the next two columns on the sheet, it's happening a lot as well. He's hitting the ball harder and he's doing it more often.

If this is real, it's going to make a big difference. It seems simple and straight-forward, but hitting the ball harder and doing it more often leads to more base hits. Could we finally be seeing glimpses of that top-5 prospect that was talked about pre-Philly call-up? A full cup from Crawford turns him into a great player, especially when you add in the defensive aspect of it.

JP Crawford is playing good defense again

When Crawford first started playing for the Mariners, we thought he was going to be some sort of a version of Andrelton Simmons. An incredible defender with a plus-plus glove and the question would always be about the bat.

It's hard to put Crawford into a group. He's a good shortstop, he's going to make some fun plays, but the arm leaves something to be desired. He ranks fairly low in arm strength, sitting in the 30th percentile. I think it's a big reason why a lot of Mariners fans wanted the team to go and get a shortstop, so they could slide JP to second base.

Well, he's looked the part in 2023. Just 37 games into the year, and he is sitting with a dWAR of 0.5 on Baseball-Reference. If he keeps it up, it's going to easily be his best full-season number at the position and will fall in line with his Gold Glove winning season in 2020. He should finish just over 2.0, which is needed for Crawford to continue to play there. However, if he can pair this level of defense with the exit velo he is putting up, we are looking at not just a good shortstop, but a great one.

Don't believe me? Due to the combination of his defense, OBP, and sneaky good RBI/Run totals, Crawford is on pace for a WAR of 5.7! That would've ranked T-22nd in baseball last season. He's currently T-52nd, which makes sense with players having hot starts. Is it possible for him to keep playing defense like this? He is in his prime, only 28 years old, and there is no reason to think that he would slow down over the next few seasons.

JP Crawford is walking at an incredible rate... that's sustainable

I think his eye at the plate is what has me most excited, and it goes just beyond walking a lot. That's where we will start, though. JP Crawford is walking at a higher rate than nearly anyone else in baseball, sitting at T-8th currently in BB% from drawing 24 walks. His career average heading in 2023 was 10.3%, and he is currently at 18.8% for the season. It could be a fluke, but when I look at some of his other numbers, I think this is something sustainable.

For those who don't use it, Baseball Savant is excellent for those who like analytics, behind-the-scenes stats, and raw numbers. They also have a handy tool that shows you if a player is cold/hot in specific stats and tracks it over their career. JP Crawford is excelling in all the stats leading to a great BB rate. Chase rate, whiff rate, he's taking more pitches and hitting balls cleaner, and as mentioned above, he is hitting the ball WAY harder than ever before.

The Mariners offense is bound to start clicking at some point (that's what I'm going to keep telling myself... it helps me sleep at night) and Crawford is going to benefit immensely from that. He's making smart decisions at the plate, hitting the ball hard, and making pitchers work each and every at-bat. I think JP Crawford is turning a corner, and Mariners fans should be excited.

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