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3 Players the Mariners should avoid this offseason

In a pivotal offseason, the Mariners will look to add to a world series hopeful team. There is obvious need for a big bat, but there have been conversations about adding to their pitching depth. The Mariners should be cautious when it comes to these 3 players.

By Tanner Vogt |
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This offseason is a very important one. The Mariners are right there, on the cusp of seriously contending for a World Series. Everyone knows the Mariners need to add another bat, and if they let Teo walk, they will most likely need 2 or 3 bats. There is also a common thought that they need to add another starting pitcher, whether that is another high-end arm like Aaron Nola or Sonny Gray, or back-of-the-rotation guys like a Kyle Gibson. Whether they trade one of their young starters to acquire that big bat, sign a big bat, or sign a starter, they will most likely be in the market for bats and pitchers alike. These are the guys that the Mariners should avoid this offseason, whether it is due to the contract that they will demand, or based on performance, I don't think any of these guys would be a wise investment.

Blake Snell

Let me preface this by saying that Blake Snell is a very good pitcher. I would love to have him as a Seattle Mariner, and it seems that Snell's feelings are similar. However, I think that for the price of Snell, the Mariners would be wise to allocate those funds elsewhere. I think that is a major deterrent for me, but not the only one. I think he will command a contract similar to that of Carlos Rodon from last year when he signed a 6 year and $162 million dollar deal. That is just too rich for me, you would have Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo and Blake Snell making over $70 million combined, when arguably 2 of those 3 would slot behind Kirby and Gilbert.

Now, that contract normally wouldn't deter me from a 30 year old pitcher coming off a 6 win season, throwing 180 innings, with a 2.25 ERA, striking out 11.7 per 9 while most likely winning the NL Cy Young. But if you look at the underlying numbers and his history and I think that Blake Snell would seriously hamper this club. First off, from 2017-2022 (subtracting 2020), he averaged 134 innings per year. There are serious durability questions and for a pitcher that will command $20-$25+ million per year, that is hard to swollow. On top of that, outside of a really good 2018, he was a pretty mid-level pitcher with his highest WAR season coming last year and it was only a 2.1 win season. The icing on the cake here is the amount of walks he surrenders. He led baseball with 99 walks and 5 BB/9.

Blake Snell, deservedly, will win the NL Cy Young, but his fit on the Mariners is an awkward one. He is certainly a good pitcher, but I think that the Mariners would be wise to spend that money on a bat. If your thought process is to sign him and trade a Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, then I would rather them do that trade, but sign a more traditional 4/5 starter and use the difference in funds there to build the depth of the major league roster, pushing guys like Mike Ford, Sam Haggerty, and Jose Caballero off the roster.

Whit Merrifield

The Mariners have had a black hole of second baseman since Robinson Cano left. They have had guys like Dylan Moore, Adam Frazier, Dee Strange-Gordon and even Shed Long Jr. Their have big name options like Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Trea Turner etc. All guys that the Mariners either couldn't afford, or preferred to play elsewhere. Well, the Mariners acquired Josh Rojas at the trade deadline and though he may not be an all-star caliber second baseman, he was solid in the half a season. So why are their rumors around the Mariners and Whit Merrifield, well thats a good question, and one that should be squashed relatively quickly.

Whit Merrifield, in 2023, was a 1.5 win player according to fWAR, and most of that value comes from his abilitiy to steal bases and play defense. His bat is severely overrated, and actually, below average. In 2023 he slashed .272/.318/.382 with 11 HR, 26 stolen bases, a 6.1% BB%, 17% K% and a 93 wRC+. He split his time between 2B and LF and he might prove as an average bat at second base, but surely you can do better offensively for a left fielder. For a guy with an $18 million-dollar mutual option, there is no way that I would pick that up if I were the Blue Jays, nor would I come anywhere close to that should he hit free agency. I think the Mariners should add someone that can rotate through the infield spots and provide more at the plate than, say, Caballero, Haggerty, or Moore, but Whit Merrifield is not that guy and Dipoto should stay far away from him.

Teoscar Hernanez

I think that there is a situation where Teoscar makes sense for the Mariners, I just think that the Mariners should explore all of their other options before Teo becomes the guy. That situation is when you have already added 1 or 2 other big bats in a corner OF spot and/or replaced Ty France at 1B and Teo is your 6 hole hitter and you are not counting on him being as big of a factor as you did this year.

For a corner OF, who was really up and down defensively, and I would rather see play 60% of his games as a DH, that will most likely command a 2- or 3-year deal and get $15-$20 million per year, I would say pass at that. If Teoscar wants to come back on the QO or sign a 2 year and $30 million dollar deal, then I am game. But committing the 3rd year and/or upwards of $20 million for a DH that slashed .258/.305/.435 with a 105 wRC+ and was only worth 1.8 fWAR, I am good. A DH that struck out over 30% of the time, walked less than 6% of the time and wRC+, fWAR and slugging percentage have all decreased year over year since 2020, is not a wise investment.

I would rather than money go towards a more proven, less strikeout prone hitter like a Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Jesse Wink....okay I joking on the last one, but you get the point here. There are a lot of options that would provide a lot more value offensively and wouldn't require as much of a financial investment from the Mariners.

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