3 players on the Mariners holiday wish list ahead of the MLB Winter Meetings

Mariners Wishlist FA Target #1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Arguably the best pitcher on the free agent market this offseason, Yamamoto is going to be courted by a number of teams, and rightfully so. Yamamoto is up there with Kodai Senga, Mashiro Tanaka, and Dice K as the best pitchers to come over from Japan, winning the Cy Young equivalent 3 years in a row. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, a week older than Bryce Miller, most likely meaning he will get a long-term deal, maybe 8 or more years.

The reason I like the idea of signing Yamamoto is pretty simple and probably self-explanatory. First of all, he is just a really good pitcher. He would probably slot in as your #2 or #3 starter behind Castillo and maybe Kirby. Over the last 3 years he has averaged about 185 innings pitched. In those 3 seasons he has also had a sub-2.00 ERA each of those years with a crazy 1.16 ERA in 2023. He fits the mold of a control the zone type of guy with a 1.5 BB/9 in 2023 as well.

The 2nd part of why I really like the idea of signing him is that he gives you a really solid number 2 or 3 starter, allowing you to move Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and maybe even Logan Gilbert for a really solid bat. You could trade Miller or Woo and acquire a really solid corner outfielder or third baseman, and your rotation would be even better than last year, which is insane.

Lastly, the Mariners have identified certain guys that they like and acquired them and extended them and the same could be here. The Mariners have been hesitant to give out long term contracts with those free agents being in their late 30's toward the end of the contract. That's the advantage with Yamamoto, he is only 25 years old, so even if you had to give out an 8- or 9-year contract, Yamamoto will only be 33 or 34 in the last year of his contract, which is very manageable, in fact, he could still be in his prime.

Mariners Free Agent #2: Jorge Soler

Soler is one of the biggest bats on the free agent market and would certainly give the Mariners a lot of thump. In 2023, he hit 36 home runs and had a .512-slugging percentage, which was good for a 126 wRC+. You would think someone with that much power strikes out a lot, right? Well, that's where I think Soler fits this team really well, he had a 24.3% K rate and a 11.4 walk rate, both are very solid numbers.

People are worried about the loss of home runs with the departures of Teoscar Hernandez and Geno, but they only combined for 48, where Soler hit 36. Soler almost seems like too obvious of a fit for what Dipoto is trying to do with this roster right now as he gives you a really good everyday DH with serious pop, low strikeout rate and good walk rates. He would like great on the lineup card hitting in the 3 or 4 hole every day.

Soptrac has Soler's estimated market value at a 4-year deal worth $55.7 million, giving him $13.9 AAV. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a 3-year deal at $45, for an AAV of $15 million. I think both of these are relatively close to what he should get. If the Mariners didn't want to commit a longer term, maybe they could do a 2-year deal worth $36 million and a 3rd year vesting or club option for $13 million. Or if they are comfortable extending it, maybe the Mariners could do a 3-year deal worth $44 million.

Mariners Free Agent Target #3: Jeimer Candelario

Candelario might be the most realistic name on this list for Mariners fans. Candelario is a solid option for the Mariners to replace Geno; he won't be that expensive, he is a CTZ guy and has some pop. In 2023, Candelario slashed .251/.336/.471 with 22 home runs and a 117 wRC+. He also had a solid K rate of 22% and a good walk rate at 9.2%, both of which fit the mold of what the Mariners are trying to do this offseason.

Spotrac estimates Candelario to get a 3-year deal worth about $35 million, giving him an AAV of $11.67. MLB Trade Rumors projects a 4-year deal worth $70 million, giving him $17.5 million per year. I think there is a happy medium here for Candelario, as I think Spotrac might be a little light and MLB Trade Rumors is pretty aggressive. I would be interested in something like a 3-year deal at $48 million for $16 AAV. I would also consider a 4-year deal worth $56 million, giving him an extra year but an AAV of $14 million.

These 3 moves would commit a lot of money to free agents but would transform this roster and the only long-term commitment would be to Yamamoto, who is a young free agent. In this scenario, the Mariners would trade Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo for a young, club-controlled corner outfielder, maybe someone like Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Kerry Carpenter, or Lane Thomas.

This becomes a very solid lineup from top to bottom with at least similar, possibly better power, and a lot fewer strikeouts. Below I have listed my theoretical lineup with that trade as well as rotation with the Yamamoto signing. Keep in mind, if you got Robbie Ray back, your #5 becomes Robbie Ray or Logan Gilbert, and Miller or Woo is your #6, that is without a doubt the best rotation in baseball.

1. JP Crawford - SS
2. Julio Rodriguez - CF
3. Acquired Left Fielder
4. Jorge Soler - DH
5. Jeimer Candelario - 3B
6. Cal Raleigh - C
7. Jarred Kelenic - RF
8. Ty France - 1B
9. Josh Rojas/Luis Urias - 2B

Starting Rotation

1. Luis Castillo
2. George Kirby
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. Logan Gilbert
5. Bryan Woo/Bryce Miller - whoever is not traded